Arizona Wildcats

Arizona Wildcats 2011 CFBMatrix Profile

I do not like the profile and trend of the Wildcats at all.  A 4 year recruiting rank of #53, a #59 class last year, which was 23 spots less than 2010 and a declining win trend is not a good sign.  While Coach Stoops has a +5 game effect, ranked #3 in the PAC12, over the last 4 years, four of those games were from the 2009 season when they picked up 3 huge road wins.  But outside that year, he is plus one game (which is still OK) but with declining recruiting, that is a bad combination.

The declining recruiting indicates a strong likelihood of fewer wins in 2011 as well.  Fortunately for Wildcat fans, the rest of the PAC12 South is weak and the one elite team has a poor coach and is now crippled for 6+ years by the NCAA.  Any total of wins over 6 for Arizona is a victory for 2011.

Arizona Recruiting Rank Links:

Most recent year , year over year recruiting improvement and 4 year moving averages of all 120 teams recruiting rankings based on CFBMatrix national composite rankings.

2011 Arizona Wildcats Active Roster with Depth

2011 Schedule Overview

This is just a brutal opening 5 weeks for Arizona.  If they are anything better than 1-4 to start, that should be considered a plus.  The 3rd toughest PAC12 conference schedule is going to be tough to take in Tucson this year.  Just 4 of their 10 FBS games are at home, where other than the 2009 season, they have been much stronger.  To think this was a team on the edge of a Rose Bowl berth just 18 months ago and now the model had a recruiting baseline expectation of just 4 wins in 2011.

There is no home/away game adjustments and a coaching effect adjustment can be no more than +1 game.  Their recruiting, schedule, coaching and ability would put 6 wins at the upper end of expectations.

However, on the down side with a couple of back breaks, injuries (lack of depth) and a demoralizing start this team could see a win the first week and one the last week and a bunch of heartbreak in between those Ws.   If Foles is healthy they are most likely to see 5/6 wins with 2 or 3 coming from conference games.

Best Upset Win Opportunities:  Home vs UCLA on the Road at Arizona State

Links to other Wildcats stats, trends, and articles

NFL/Recruiting Rank Ratios  Team Records – Odds Matrix  Returning Starters (All teams)

Arizona Wildcats Win/Recruiting Trend Chart

Down, down and down.   There is nothing good to see here other than Coach Stoops taking his best classes (’05 & ’06) and rolling them into 8 wins in 2009.  But, the recruiting could not keep pace and that, given another year of poor recruiting may be the end of his tenure.  The wins dropped off a bit in 2010 and certainly are pointing in a downtrend to mirror the ‘Cats 4 year moving recruiting rank average.  Just looking at this trend chart the most likely landing spot for wins in 2011 is 5 or 6, which mirrors the modeling predictions noted above in the matrix analysis.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s