What is the CFBMatrix?

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The 2011 #2 Overall Conference Final Standings Predictor for AQ Conferences by National Publications*

For most college football fans, you will find the CFBMatrix is an understandable yet unemotional model for profiling and  predicting what has and will happen in each college football team.  The CFBMatrix model is a simple equation of the CFBMatrix Field Adjusted National Recruiting Rank (FARR) with the home/away strength of each team.  All games are picked by the model using those variables in March of the coming football season.  Most fans would like to believe it is not that predictable to just have recruiting, schedule and coaching as variables for predicting win totals, game outcome and other stats, but the 2011 numbers speak for themselves.

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2011 March Pre-Season Game Picks – Total Record – 501 wins 192 loses – 72%

ATS Picks from the CFBMatrix Guide: 21-11

Total Wins Picks from the CFBMatrix Total Wins Guide: 9-3

CFBMatrix National Title Contenders Group – Correct for the 8th Straight Year!

  • ACC – 100 games & CFBMatrix went 63 – 37 ( 63%)
  • Big 12 – 71 games – 47 – 24 ( 66%) correct in the CFBMatrix
  • SEC – 95 games – 75 – 20 (79%)
  • PAC12 – 89 games – 69 – 21 (78%)
  • Big Ten – 91 games – 69 – 22 (76%)
  • Big East – 64 games – 50 – 14 (78%)
  • Independent – 42 games – 31- 11 (75%)
  • Non-AQs – 367 games – 269 – 98 (73%)

Top 25 teams played 280 games through and 214 (76.4%) of those games were predicted correctly using only the CFBMatrix FARR (Field Adjusted Recruiting Rank).

2011 Conference Pre-Season Picks Rankings
Head to Head with 12 other National Publications*

#2 Overall Conf Predictions for AQ Conferences
#1 Overall Predictions – ACC (3way tie)
#1 Overall Predictions – SEC (two way tie)
#1 Overall Conf. Predictions – PAC12
#2 Overall Conf Predictions – Big East
#3 Overall Conf. Predictions – Big Ten
#12 Overall Conf. Predictions – Big 12

*As compiled in 2011 by Stassen.com and compared predictions versus results for the CFBMatrix, Phil Steele, Fort Heresy, Lindy’s, ESPN, USA Today, The Sporting News, Athlon, CollegeFootballPoll.com, Steve Wrathell’s CPA Rankings, Rogers Poll and CompughterRatings.com

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However the recruiting is just a part of the predictability as it is used to forecast trends, likelihood of wins, coaching effect and other variables as a result of the recruiting based tracking.   This is not crazy computer modeling or a bunch of variables that you cannot understand, nor is this ‘expert’ opinion about what I believe is going to happen.  What most fans like or do not like about the CFBMatrix format and modeling is that it is simple.  For many fans, winning, losing and predictability has to be more complex and fans want detailed answers.   However, we often find in life that it is the simple answer to a complex problem that can be just as accurate without over-analyzing.  For example, in the last 7 seasons no team (14), winner or loser, has made it to the BCS title game without at least being ranked in the top 18 for the last 4 years of recruiting, being top 3 in their conference in recruiting and having at least one top 15 and one top 10 class in those 4 years.

Everything that you read about in this site starts with my Composite Team Recruiting rankings.  Why?  Here is the math side…. it turns out team recruiting rankings can predict nearly 70% of a coming seasons games 6 months in advance.  The trick is to figure out how to make the best composite recruiting rankings of all public data AND to determine what makes up the other 30%.  In the CFBMatrix model, that 30% part home/away schedule (about 1/3) and the rest is what we call the Coaching Game Effect.

After doing this for over 7 years, our recruiting based model has provided to us a massive database which we are now sharing with you the fans.  In the site you will be able to find, based solely on the CFBMatrix model:

A. Win and recruiting trends in every team

B.  Coaching profiles showing biggest positive to most negative game effect coaches

C.  BCS Title contenders (recruiting is HUGE! in this one)

D. Most recent year , year over year recruiting improvement and 4 year moving averages of all 120 teams recruiting rankings

E. Strength of Schedule (SOS) rankings for every team and conference

F. Ease of Schedule© (EOS) for every team and conference

G. Most likely outcomes for season win totals, conference win total and conference placing

H. Program rankings for recruiting to NFL ratios

I.  CFBMatrix model versus BCS title winner lines, moneylines, spreads and other lines.

And so much more all rooted in recruiting without bias or complication.

As a model, it is never perfect, but provides a unique and unemotional view for you the fan.  It is not a talking head making picks for ratings or a BCS ranking formula so complex very few can understand its meaning.  It is provided free to all fans and we are trying to add other areas of interest including active rosters, scheduling, twitter accounts dedicated to each team and recruiting based analysis, like best bets for your entertainment.

If you have any comments, ideas, or want to help out with your team’s page just contact us.  And if you want us on the air to talk about the views of the model, just call or email us directly.

May your team break the model to the positive side of expectations.

Dave
Founder and National Recruiting Stats Guru for College Football Matrix

Levi Tebow Bertschi
denverbrosLevi Tebow Bertschi  @cfbmatrix someone get this man on sportscenter
Big Al
BAMASportFanBig Al  @cfbmatrix Dave Bartoo can nail it with numbers in football. Heard him on the radio a couple times. He knows his stuff.
elfutbol professior
NotJoeLeeDunnelfutbol professior  if your not following @cfbmatrix you should. if you like numbers n football – dave is top notch and his mind is better than mine! 🙂
Sarah Phillips Sarah Phillips : “College Football Matrix” is the best CFB betting blog on the web. Interesting, insightful & FREE. Follow Dave @CFBMatrix.
Vegas Runner Vegas Runner @VegasRunner 9 Dec@cfbmatrix Pleasure was mine…Wasn’t a wk of CFB that I didn’t check out your info..Already looked at your Bowl work. Continued success. VR
mike evans mike evans @crabblers 6 Dec @cfbmatrix congrats on #SEC. Gotta believer in the #matrix here. Every football fan should check and follow. http://www.cfbmatrix.com
elfutbol professior @NotJoeLeeDunn 30 NovI urge everyone to follow my man dave at @cfbmatrix to educate yourself on recruiting, trends, n coaching
Randall. Randall. @JRC_ 22 Nov@cfbmatrix I must say that you do excellent work.
Dusty Harrah Dusty Harrah @Dusty_Harrah 16 Nov@cfbmatrix Thanks! Love the site by-the-way…

About The College Football Matrix

Where the eyeball test meets odds & trends. Its not math or a 'prediction' machine. It is a unique & new way of telling the story, past, present & future of CFB. There is nothing else like in for college football anywhere. www.cfbmatrix.com
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One Response to What is the CFBMatrix?

  1. Bob says:

    Dave, appreciate that you’ll willingly discuss your stuff and give some feedback. I posted this at the Arky board where your site was linked. Thought I’d move it here to give you some support.

    Looking at your composite rankings, AU is 10th this year, after having a top 4 class, which I assume means they were no better than 10th a year ago. What other factors made them considered top tier elite compared to say LSU, which I figure had a higher composite ranking a year ago?

    Looking at your three tiers, Arkansas was better than seven of the teams listed a year ago, and beat two of them on the field, led two others in the 4th quarter, and were a scoop and score away from beating another. I don’t think talent cost Arkansas any games last year.

    FWIW, the 2008 Arkansas class was way underrated. Greg Childs, Joe Adams, Jarius Wright, Tyler Wilson, Dennis Johnson, Tremain Thomas, Jerico Nelson and Tenarius Wright have all been mentioned as preseason All-SEC players. Another handful have made significant contributions. Red shirt seniors Jerry Franklin and Jake Bequette are on everyone’s All-SEC teams. Arkansas is a senior laden team, at what point is four years experience worth more than an extra star? I’ll stand by my belief that Arkansas’ talent is good enough

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