4/18/2012: I found this posted by a Arkansas Hogs fan on the Hogville.net forum. Rather than crash the thread I responded to the question/request here.
From HighClassJunkie (Hog Fan) I tend to overreact sometimes, but this article causes me to change my depends.. Someone talk some sense into me.. https://collegefootballmatrix.wordpress.com/special-features/articles-2/the-before-during-and-after-hogs-profiled/
HCJ – I do not think that I can ease your anxiety about where the Hogs will go from here. I can only look a the Hogs before and after Petrino numbers and compare them to the other teams in the SEC that I have tracked for nine years. The common reaction that you will hear from most Hog fans, and fans in general when they lose a valuable piece of the puzzle, is to downplay the loss by raising up what was kept. In this case the players. You will hear how the current group is so much better than when Nutt left town and that the returning starters and experience will carry us. I do not fully buy that argument.
While to an extent it may be true, the last decade of average recruiting ranking has been stagnate and just slightly above the level of Mississippi State (8 yr ranking of #28 vs #35). In no way, could all the ranking outlets selectively under or over rate 4 years of recruiting classes for any one team. And you don’t see Mississippi State putting up 8, 9 or 10+ wins with nearly the same talent levels within the SEC. No team that has won 10+ in the last 5 years has had a bigger positive gap between their recruiting levels versus the rest of their conference than Boise State and no team that has won 10+ regular season games has had a bigger negative gap in their recruiting rank versus the teams above them in conference than Arkansas. In my opinion in reading the numbers, it is not the players.
There is no ‘luck’ in their schedule either. They play in the toughest division in the toughest conference in the country. LSU and Alabama are tougher to beat when they are on the road. Yet they win over 8 games a year under Petrino in 4 years, while a slightly lower recruiting rank Mississippi State is happy to average 6. When over 80% of every SEC team’s games are predict correct each year using adjusted recruiting and where the game is played and Petrino lost 2 times in 4 years to teams he out recruited it wasn’t players, schedule or lucky bounces that made those Ws go up on the scoreboard. It was the head coach and his staff.
Here are some more CFBMatrix stats to ponder. But be warned, if you want to believe that the Hogs are a division, conference or even NCG contender, stop reading.
- Teams with new head coaches, nationally, average -1 game under the Matrix predictions in the coming year. Going off adjusted recruiting and schedule, that prediction for the Hogs is 7-5. 6-6 is completely on the board. The biggest drop from 10+ wins in the regular season in the last decade is 7 more loses than the previous year.
- Only 39% of all teams to win 10 or more in the regular season have come back with 10 or more the next year.
- No team with an adjusted recruiting rank over #10 in the country has won the SEC West division in the last 8 years.
- No team with an CFBMatrix adjusted recruiting rank over #10 has won the SEC championship game
- No team with an adjusted matrix recruiting rank worse than #16 has made a BCS NCG in the last 8 years.
- Arkansas has the #25 adjusted 4 year recruiting rank going into 2012.
Fortunately, the CFBMatrix is not perfect or even close to perfect. That would make for a very boring season. The Hogs still have talent and BP’s coaching over the last 4 years so anything is possible. Hope for the best (9+ wins) but brace for the worst (6-6). – Dave