2011 Moneyline and ATS Entertainment Guide

Please read:  Welcome to the 1st edition of the CFBMatrix weekly game guide page.  As a new part of the site, I am going to use the 2011 CFBMatrix Game Guide to make notes on my views for the game each week.  The modeling was not designed for this but it is becoming an entertaining by-product.  We will see how it goes.  If you want to buy your own copy of the 2011 CFBMatrix Game Guide and how to use it, send us an email at bestbets@cfbmatrix.com or call us at 971.244.3041.  This page may become password protected if we have enough folks that want the Guides for their personal use.

The goal of posting notes and using the guide is to minimize risk and maximize return on your entertainment dollar.  We look for trends by teams found within the Matrix modeling to focus on consistent winners and avoid the inconsistent and too often losers.

11/11/2011 – Season to date – 57/104 – 54.81%  Gain/Loss +262.05 ROI* +10.78%
ATS – 21-11 – 71% – +$178 ROI +25.28%
Straight up – 18-13 – 55%  +100.75  ROI 13.0%
Weekly Upset Special (for fun only) 1/3 – 33% +$32.50 ROI +54% (dropped in week 4)
Mr Anderson’s Guaranteed Parlay – 7-4
All Parlays – 17-21  – 42%  -$49.20 ROI -5.17%


Note on Parlays:  Mr. Anderson’s Parlay (Best Bet and lowest risk) is 7-2 with a payout over 1:1.  Each parlay has the payout/risk on it.  i play them all for fun.  You want max ROI then stick to ATS picks and low risk SU Parlays on this page.

*ROI = Return on investment (Gains/Loss divided by total wagered)

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9/27/2011 – Update to 2011 Plays – After going 24-19 in the CFBMatrix in the first 4 weeks (compared to  226-33 for all other conferences), I am removing all ACC games from my personal plays.  I will continue to post what the Guide says is the best risks but caviot all ACC games as Passes for 2011.  

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Week 1 Notes

Got a question about a week 1 game….  tweet me at @cfbmatrix

Not a lot of games with good numbers.  Any non-AQ/non-BCS team vs a AQ school has a 2%-13% chance of winning that game.  ’02-’10 average of FBS vs FCS teams is 91.4%.  If you cannot get better than 9 to 1 it is best to avoid all FBS/FCS risks (article link)

Wake at Syracuse – What the Guide says from the CFBMatrix modeling.  Syracuse is favorite to win at home vs. Wake.  Syracuse vs the model at home is correct 71.4% and Wake matches on the Road 70% of the time (4 years) but has beat a team on the road with a 4 year recruiting rank less than #50 4 out 5 games.   Syracuse is 2-2 in home games versus a team with a 4 year recruiting rank above #60. 
Wake wins 80% of the time with these metrics. Syracuse 50%.  Wake getting +210 (2 for 1).
Guidelines*** = Wake straight up (or would cover too as Syracuse -6.5)


South Florida @ Notre Dame Guidelines: Pass
Minnesota @ USC Guidelines: Pass
Colorado @ Hawaii   Guidelines: Pass/Avoid

Northwestern @ Boston College:  Northwestern is the #1 rated road upset win team in the country (due in large part to terrible recruiting).  However, they consistently beat teams like BC on the road.  the issue is BC has not lost a home game under their 3rd year head coach to team they have out recruited the previous 4 years.  Guidelines: BC Eagles to win

Miami at Maryland:  Both new coaches.  Why even think about it at that risk level?  Guideline: Avoid

Oregon vs LSU:  Before all the turmoil with these two I was firmly in favor of LSU (and I am a UO Grad).  The model has successfully gone 83% on all regular season Ducks games in the last 4 years and 5 of 6 on bowl games.   LSU gets upset less on the road than at home and the Ducks have lost 3 of their last 3 neutral field games in which the opponent out recruited them the previous 4 years.  But with all the problems and inconsistency for both teams, Guidelines***: Picks LSU in the model

What do these 3 games have in common?  Highly ranked non-AQ teams..sure.  AQ teams that under acheived talent in 1 or both of the past seasons..yup.  How about a home team dog that out recruited the visitor?  You bet… or do you?  In the last 4 years under these scenarios the dog covers over 70% of the time.  But is it always a bit scary because it goes against public opinion.  3 games, 3 spreads, 3 straight ups.  Now this is fun and entertainment.  The odds and trends from the Team Game Guide say take the home team ATS in all three and Avoid on ML lines Your extra option and risk/reward is all three to win.  The lines suggest these games may not be as far apart as folks make them out to be this week.
Boise State at Georgia (+3.5/+135)   

BYU at Ole Miss***  (+3.5/+135)
TCU at Baylor*** (+6.5/+210)

The_WinningEdge@cfbmatrix What week 1 matchups ATS does your Model predict to have the highest % of covering?   The model is not designed for ATS but it has been back tested.  It loves the percentage of home team Dogs to cover.  I will post game that covered over 70% from ’07-’10 that are noted in the Team Game Guide
MatthewcelderMatthew Elder  – @cfbmatrix Good numbers! Appreciate the input, but chance. What would you say about the NC State (-29) v. Liberty line? Guidelines –  Avoid NC State at home this week!

Week 1 Follow up notes: Could the first pick gone any more harsh holding a Wake slip?  Syracuse out scored Wake 29-9 in the last 8:35 to win and cover (in the only OT scenario that could do so). Wow, truly stunned.  Ole Miss just blew it as well but at home versus BYU.  Terrible start to the season.  But Ole Miss did cover as well as Baylor.  Georgia, while few seemed surprised they lost, IMO it was an upset and the ‘Dawgs didn’t show up.  BC lost at home for the first time to a team that HC Spaziani out recruited.

9/5/2011 –   d_nice_1977       @cfbmatrix you sure do know your college football there buddy… Thanks to your advice I won 385$ on 4 games.. #thanks

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Week 2 Notes

ATS Games

The odds and trends from the Team Game Guide say take the home team ATS in all three and Avoid on ML lines.  Your extra option and risk/reward is all three to win.  The lines suggest these games may not be as far apart as folks make them out to be this week.

  • Miss State @ Auburn (+7)   – High risk – Fewest Returning Starters in last 10 yrs for AQ school and MSU very inconsistent in the model.
  • Virginia @ Indiana (+7)  New IU coach so higher risk, but UVA had no road upset wins in ’10
  • South Carolina @ Georgia (+3.5) – Highest Risk.  UGA poor at home vs road and is a mess in their last 13 games.
  • Northern Illinois @ Kansas*** (+7.5)
  • Notre Dame @ Michigan*** (+3.5) New HC at Michigan but ND only 1 road upset win under Kelly and no one worse in first 13 games as new HC

Straight Up Games

SU Upset of the Week:  Iowa State over Iowa – Ferentz is weak on the road and his upset losses on the road match ISU’s recruiting rank.  ISU is also good at home and their home upsets match Iowa’s rank.

– Oklahoma State:  Lost only 1x at home vs team (91%) they out recruit in previous 3 seasons.
Guideline:  20% return on -550 play

– Arizona St v Missouri – 9/7 line -350 ASU +290 Mizzou.  Erickson wins at home in the CFBMatrix 78.6% and Pinkel on the road is 75% in the Matrix.  Current line is about 30% ROI.
Guideline: Play 30% return on -350

– Louisville vs FUI – Current line -145 but CFBMatrix hates UL at home – AVOID

BEST UPSET ODDS ALERT! Iowa @ Iowa State –  Current line Iowa +240 – Iowa only gets W/L at a 60% rate on the road and ISU gets W/L at 60% rate at home.  ISU in range of recuriting rank of Iowa road upset loses and ISU upset home wins puts Iowa in the middle as well.   AVOID due to inconsistency but if you like risk then ISU with the home upset

– W. Michigan @ Kentucky *** –   UK hasn’t lost at home or on the road to a team they out recruit and the CFBMatrix is 92.3% correct on UK’s 13 games.  Guidelines – Play for -440 on 25% ROI

– Miss State @ Auburn – Avoid (MSU inconsistent)

– Rutgers @ North Carolina – Avoid

– Cincinnati @ Tennessee*** – Best ML of the week!  Getting nearly 50% ROI on -210 with the Vols.  Dooley in 12 games has 1 home upset loss and Cincinnati has no road upset wins.  Recruiting rank gap is huge.  Guidelines loves this ML

– Hawaii @ Washington*** – UW is good  at home having given up just 2 upset loses in 2 years.  Those were to #31 and #34 recruiting rank conference teams.  Hawaii is #78 for 2011 and UW getting -210 for a 48% ROI
Guideline – Play UW for -210 and a 48% ROI

– Cal @ Colorado – Avoid – Cal is very weak on the road & CU has new coach & no talent.

– Alabama @ Penn State*** – Alabama is favored in the model.  They have only 2 road upsets in last 4 years (18/20) and only 1 had recruiting level under Penn State.  PSU has only 2 upset wins at home (both Michigan under RR) so that doesn’t hold much weight.  Getting -365 on Alabama and model pus this game at +75% in favor of Alabama.
Guidelines – caution road favorite but take -365 ML and 27% ROI in Happy Valley.  OK to avoid road favs.

– NC State @ Wake – NC State is a modeling bane and Wake is tough at home.  Upset special. AVOID

– Virginia @ Indiana – Avoid – New HC.  Better risk is IU to cover.

– Utah @ USC Utes new to PAC12 and USc bad coaching – AVOID

– Boston College @ Central Florida* – Pointed to this game as excellent ROI. BC Coach Spaziani has 3 road upset wins in 2 years and not lost on the road to a team they out recruit.  Guidelines: Caution Road Favorite for the model but getting +210 and 190% ROI in play

– BYU @ Texas – Before ’10 Texas went 3 years with just one home upset loss (#43 KSU)  Good as it is in Austin but higher risk given 2010.   OK to pass but…
Guideline Play -270 Texas for 37% ROI

– Notre Dame @ Michigan Best advice is play the ATS instead of SULower risk with near same odds.  Model take Michigan to win and cover.

– Georgia Tech @ Middle Tennessee –Tech has lost 1 game on the road under Johnson to a team they out recruited over last 4 years.  Easily better than Mid Tennessee.
Guideline: Play GA Tech to win on the road – 25% ROI with -400 (9.7.11)

Awesome Parlay Combos

  • All home parlay:  Tennessee, Kentucky, Washington (if a 4th add Texas) – w/ Texas
    Payout approx $260/100
  • SEC parlay: Tennessee, Kentucky and Alabama
    Payout approx $132/100
  • Road Parlay: Alabama, Georgia Tech (add Boston College for addition ROI/Risk)
    Payout approx. $444/100
  • The Big Parlay: Tennessee, Washington, Kentucky, Alabama, Georgia Tech
    Payout approx. $312/100
  • MEGA Parlay: Tennessee, Washington, Kentucky, Alabama, Georgia Tech, Texas and Boston College Payout approx. $1832/100
  • Mr. Anderson’s Choice: Tennessee, Washington and Georgia Tech (IMO and read is these are the 3 best odds) Payout approx. $160/100

*Payouts are estimates depending on the Sportsbook you use for your entertainment only.  No pick is a guarantee nor recommendation.  All picks are your choice and for entertainment only.

Total CFBMatrix Plays for Week 2
ATS – 5 plays $110 max return $100 (90.9%)
ML – No SU games – 6 Parlays for $150 max return $784.50 (523%)

  • The_WinningEdgejared wyrick@cfbmatrix Wouldve hit hadn’t it been for BC. onto next week though. Will also follow your ATS picks
  • tweetydimeschristopher j love @cfbmatrix after all those series of events got done playing out yesterday all i can say is you my friend are genius !..thnk u
  • Pude13@cfbmatrix Played your all home parlay with texas, thanks for the cash 🙂
  • luke4MMALuke Fulmer@cfbmatrix Incredible week man,just incredible .
  • JimmyV425Jimmy Vinicky @cfbmatrixML thank you for talking me out of putting money on IOWA VS. Iowa St. Ugly.

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Week 3 Notes

ATS Games

The odds and trends from the Team Game Guide say take the home team ATS in all three and Avoid on ML lines.  Your extra option and risk/reward is all three to win.  The lines suggest these games may not be as far apart as folks make them out to be this week.

  • Oklahoma @ Florida State (+3.5) – Titanic battle.  OU no road upset wins in last 4 years and FSU no home upset losses under Fisher.  FSU out recruited OU last 4 years.
    Guideline: Take Florida State and +3.5.  Additional risk FSU to win.

Straight Up Games

Upset of the Week:  Washington over Nebraska +550  UW is not so great on the road, but has pulled upsets under Sarkisian.  Pelini is weak at home vs the road.  Odds low, but ROI to odds ratio puts this the best single SU upset for week 3.

GUIDE IS PASSING ON ALL THESE GAMES

  • Tennessee @ Florida – UF is -350 which is a poor ROI for a new coach against a very quality opponent.  No book on Muschamp yet so PASS.  Model picks Florida
  • Michigan State @ Notre Dame ND is -190 but a train wreck at home in the model.  ND to win but PASS on Notre Dame at home.
  • Virginia @ North Carolina –  NC -360  New HC at UNC with ROI under 30% is a PASS
  • Louisville @ Kentucky – UK is -250  Recruiting ranks #44 and #45 respectively.  Too close for that ROI.  UK should winPASS
  • Arizona State @ Illinois – Illinois is -125 but the worst head coach effect in the Big Ten.  Immediate PASS
  • Ohio State @ Miami – New coaches at both schools and even talent.  Too volatile.  PASS
  • Stanford @ Arizona – Stanford -360  I dont like ATS with AZ at home. They are shown to be very volatile in Tucson vs the road. The UA 4 year recruiting rank is #53 nationally versus #26 for Stanford. That is too huge of a gap to overcome even with home field for Arizona. Stanford does have a new coach, so there is no trend on him, but he was an internal hire. The Matrix takes Stanford SU, but I am not sold on this play. I would recommend AVOID on SU as UA has 5 home upset wins in 5 years and they were all against teams with a #17 to #28 composite 4 year recruiting rank

GUIDE’S LIST OF GAMES TO PLAY – Straight up or parlay

  • LSU at Miss State – LSU is one of the best road teams in the Matrix.  Only 4 road upsets in 4 years and only one game versus a team with a 4 year recruiting rank worse than MSU.  MSU only one home upset versus the Matrix.
  • Pitt at Iowa –  When Ferentz blows a game it is against low 4YRR (4 year recruiting rank) opponents.  Pitt new HC and not a low 4YRR
  • Kansas @ Georgia Tech –  Tech solid at home.  Kansas rare to get a road win upset and none in OOC under current HC
  • Oklahoma @ Florida State – Taking FSU to cover.  Don’t like double downs but would be a good risk
  • Penn State at Temple –  AQs beat non AQs 91% of the time.  Getting nearly 50% ROI
  • Oklahoma State at Tulsa – See note above for PSU
  • Mississippi at Vanderbilt – Even money for a game that Ole Miss should win 75%+ of the time
  • Wisconsin at N Illinois – Getting 15 ROI on a OOC game HC Beilema never lost. Easy return IMO

Parlay Combos

Home Parlay Iowa, Georgia Tech, Boston College (Florida State to add ROI and risk) approx 1.6 to 1

Away Parlay – LSU, Penn State, Oklahoma State & Mississippi (Auburn for more ROI & risk) approx 4 to 1

Big Parlay – LSU, Iowa, Penn State, Mississippi, Georgia Tech, Oklahoma State approx 8 to 1

Mega Parlay – LSU, Oklahoma State, Iowa, Penn State, Mississippi, Boston College, Florida State, Wisconsin and Georgia Tech  – Payout approx 16.3 to 1

Mr. Anderson’s Parlay  – Penn State, Georgia Tech, Oklahoma State and LSU to Win  Approx 1.6 to 1

*Payouts are estimates depending on the Sportsbook you use for your entertainment only.  No pick is a guarantee nor recommendation.  All picks are your choice, your risk and for your entertainment only.

Total CFBMatrix Plays for Week 3
ATS – 1 game Risk $20 Max ROI 90.9% – Result lost 1 ATS -$22 ROI -100%
ML Parlays- 5 plays Risk $125 Max ROI 926.4% – 2 of 5 winners – 11.77 ROI -9.41%
SU – 1 game Risk $10 Max ROI 600% (UW Huskies for fun upset) – Lost $10 -100% ROI

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Week 4 Notes

ATS Games

The odds and trends from the Team Game Guide have no ATS games to play in Week 4

Straight Up Games

Upset of the Week:

GUIDE IS PASSING ON ALL THESE GAMES

NC State and Cincinnati:  NC State is my winner, but they are very inconsistent in winning/losing in the model

Colorado at Ohio State:  New HC at tOSU, best to avoid even though the Buckeyes should roll the Buffs.

Toledo at Syracuse:  Syracuse should win at home, but have given up 3 upset loses in Upstate NY in the last 2 years.  Best to pass this game.

Oklahoma State @ Texas A&M:  Sherman is the worst home game effect coach in the Big 12 and Gundy is the best to pull an upset win on the road.  AVOID!

Southern Cal @ Arizona State:  This is exactly the profile of team that Kiffin and staff lost 5 games too in 2010.  Better on the road than at home, if they show up, USC wins.  ASU is not a big upset win team under Erickson at home or on the road.  The guide basically says total crap shoot.

Arkansas at Alabama:  Bama is a near lock having lost only 1x in 3 season at home.  But Petrino is the best game effect HC in the SEC.  Best to pass on this one IMO.

UCLA @ Oregon State:  UCLA should crush the Beavers but the worst game effect HC in football is an albatross.  Riley is brutally tough at home as well.  Best to AVOID both teams all the time.

North Carolina @ Georgia Tech:  UNC has a new head coach and GT is tough at home.  They have just two upsets wins in 2 year at home but both are against UNC.   Model took UNC to win in March, but am PASSING this game on the metrics.

Notre Dame @ Pittsburgh:  Pitt has a new HC and Notre Dame is just totally inconsistent under HC Kelly.  They are a bit better on the road than at home, but a lot of uncertainty to put them in a parlay.

GUIDE’S LIST OF GAMES TO PLAY – Straight up or parlay

SU – Cal at Washington (-110) – Even money play.  Washington has only 2 upsets Ls at home under HC Sark and Cal is bad on the road with just 3 road upset Ws in 4 years.  To even and risky in a SU parlay but good as a SU play with 90% ROI.

SU – Florida State (+130) at Clemson – FSU getting better than even money.  Clemson just one home upset W (last week) under Swinney and FSU only one upset loss under Fisher.  ROI nearly 110%.

ALL CFBMATRIX PARLAYS ARE FOR SU WINS ON EACH TEAM!  (no ATS!)

Home Parlay – approx 1.5:1 South Carolina, Virginia, Iowa and Michigan to win

Home 2.0 Riskier Parlay – 1:1 Illinois, Miami and Maryland to win

Non AQ Parlay – approx 2.5:1 Virginia, Iowa, Michigan, Illinois, Maryland

The Big Parlay – approx. 2.5:1 LSU, Iowa, South Carolina, Oregon, Michigan, Maryland

The Zion Parlay – 24:1 LSU, Iowa, Virginia, South Carolina, Oregon, Michigan, Florida State, Georgia, Illinois, Miami, Maryland

Mr. Anderson’s Parlay  –  1:1 Iowa, Oregon, South Carolina, LSU

*Payouts are estimates depending on the Sportsbook you use for your entertainment only.  No pick is a guarantee nor recommendation.  All picks are your choice, your risk and for your entertainment only.

Total CFBMatrix Plays for Week 4
ATS – No Games
SU Moneyline Parlays – 6 Plays for $150 max ROI on all 525%
SU Games – 2 games risking $52 for max 110% ROI

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Week 5 Notes

ATS Games

The odds and trends from the Team Game Guide have 3 ATS games to play Plus 2 ‘bonus’ plays


Georgia Tech @ NC State – Pass
NC State is an inconsistent mess in the CFBMatrix.  Plus ACC coaching is horrid this year.  BC, NC State, Virginia, FSU, Miami, UNC, Maryland all with bad loses

Wake @ Boston College – Pass  See above, plus beating against Wake versus a tier III recruiter is not a good idea.;

South Florida @ Pitt – Play (pass ok due to new HC) OK to pass but I am playing it due to Guide recommend.  Pitt at home to cover the 2.5 Winner – Pitts covers and wins. 

Nebraska @ Wisconsin – Play  This IS not a normal CFBMatrix ATS play!  I am going against the grain and guide as this is not a home team dog.  BUT Pelini has won 9 of 10 road games in which the Matrix favored him and I am getting +9.5.  IMO good risk. $22 to win $20 ATS

Northern Illinois @ Central Michigan – Play  This IS not a normal CFBMatrix ATS play! IMO the only way to test something new is to have the balls to call it and PLAY it.  Done.  CM at home getting +9 against NIU.  Non AQ vs Non AQ is modeling as good or better than AQ vs AQ so trying to see if I can be right on the same hypothesis.  Winner – C. Michigan covered (and won)

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Straight Up Games

Upset of the Week: Northwestern +265 @ Illinois (Nebraska/Oregon State/KState others to watch)

GUIDE’S LIST OF GAMES TO PLAY – Straight up or parlay

ALL CFBMATRIX PARLAYS ARE FOR SU WINS ON EACH TEAM!  (no ATS!)

Home Parlay – approx 1:1 Cincinnati, Virginia Tech and South Carolina

Mr. Anderson’s Parlay  – approx 1:1 Penn State, Cincinnati and Texas Tech

Optional plays with higher risk and against the best bets odds of a Guide recommendation.  These are just for fun but I am playing them for entertainment as risk/reward is high.

The Big Underdogs – Approx 50:1 Georgia, Ohio State, Washington, Nebraska, Texas

The Zion Parlay – approx 4:1 Penn State, Cincinnati, Texas Tech, Notre Dame, Baylor and South Carolina


*Payouts are estimates depending on the Sportsbook you use for your entertainment only.  No pick is a guarantee nor recommendation.  All picks are your choice, your risk and for your entertainment only.

Total CFBMatrix Plays for Week 5
ATS – 3 plays $66 bet $60 max win
SU Moneyline Parlays – $85 bet to win $1110 (20 to win $1000 on Big Underdog)
SU Games – 1 SU fun best upset alert NW over Ill Bet $20 for $55

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Week 6 Notes

ATS Games

The odds and trends from the Team Game Guide have 2 ATS games to play

Boise State at Fresno State (+21.5) – Guide does not play non AQ games, but they are continuing to produce like the AQ teams.  Hit first non AQ attempt ATS last week using the same formula.  Going for it again this week with the BulldogsLoser

Arizona @ Oregon State (+2) – Close line but a play in the Guide.  Two good coaches at home and on the road but with bad seasons so far.   Winner

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Straight Up Games

Upset of the Week: None – I cannot see any games that pit a good versus bad coach with the right metrics to pick it.

GUIDE’S LIST OF GAMES TO PLAY – Straight up or parlay

Week 6 notes.  There are not a lot of games that stick out that make me want to play them.  Mostly because the odds are so low with ROIs under 15% per game (less than -750).  There are a lot of tight games that make me want to play straight up versus parlay.  However, many of these teams are AVOIDs due to coaching, new coaching or being part of the ACC.  It is for fun so I am going to make some plays.

ALL CFBMATRIX PARLAYS ARE FOR SU WINS ON EACH TEAM!  (no ATS!)

Home Parlay – +110 Baylor, NC State and Penn State – Winner

Mr. Anderson’s Parlay  – +135 Michigan, North Carolina, Missouri  – Loser

Optional plays with higher risk and against the best bets odds of a Guide recommendation.  These are just for fun but I am playing them for entertainment as risk/reward is high.

The Big Parlay – +395 Michigan, North Carolina, Missouri, Arizona State, Baylor  – Loser

The Zion Parlay – +450 Penn State, Arizona State, North Carolina, Michigan, Baylor, Texas A&MWinner


*Payouts are estimates depending on the Sportsbook you use for your entertainment only.  No pick is a guarantee nor recommendation.  All picks are your choice, your risk and for your entertainment only.

Total CFBMatrix Plays for Week 6
ATS – 2 plays $44 bet $40 max win – Result 1 for 2 (AQ game correct) -$2 ROI -0.45%
SU Moneyline Parlays – 4 Played $100 wagered.  2 of 4 hit +$56.20 ROI +56.2%
SU Games – none

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Week 7 Notes

ATS Games – Year to Date AQ Teams: 9-3  non-AQ 1-1

The odds and trends from the Team Game Guide have 1 ATS games to play

Oklahoma State @ Texas  (+8) – Should be interesting game with media and fan perception of both teams heading into this game.   No shock if the Horns cover and win. Loser

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Straight Up Games

  • UCF @ SMU – UCF well out recruits SMU and getting +145. Loser
  • San Diego State @ Air Force – SDSU easily out recruits AFA and getting +235 Winner
  • Navy at Rutgers – Knights only -175 in  a game they should cruise Winner

Upset of the Week: None – I cannot see any games that pit a good versus bad coach with the right metrics to pick it.  Best ones are Northwestern to beat Iowa, Michigan to beat Michigan state, Ohio State to beat Illinois and UCF to beat SMU.

GUIDE’S LIST OF GAMES TO PLAY – Straight up or parlay

Week 6 notes.  There are not a lot of games that stick out that make me want to play them.  Mostly because the odds are so low with ROIs under 15% per game (less than -750).  There are a lot of tight games that make me want to play straight up versus parlay.  However, many of these teams are AVOIDs due to coaching, new coaching or being part of the ACC.  It is for fun so I am going to make some plays.

ALL CFBMATRIX PARLAYS ARE FOR SU WINS ON EACH TEAM!  (no ATS!)

Home Parlay – -110 Cincinnati, Washington, Oregon, Penn State – Winner

Road Parlay – -110 Georgia, LSU, South Florida – Loser

Mr. Anderson’s Parlay  –  -110 LSU, Oregon, Cincinnati, Penn State – Winner

Optional plays with higher risk and against the best bets odds of a Guide recommendation.  These are just for fun but I am playing them for entertainment as risk/reward is high.

The Zion Parlay –  +725 South Florida, Georgia, Cincinnati, LSU, Washington, Oregon, Pitt, Rutgers, Penn State Loser


*Payouts are estimates depending on the Sportsbook you use for your entertainment only.  No pick is a guarantee nor recommendation.  All picks are your choice, your risk and for your entertainment only.

Total CFBMatrix Plays for Week 7
ATS – 1 game
SU Moneyline Parlays – 4 SU parlays for $25 each
SU Games – 3 games for approx $50 played

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Week 8 Notes

Week 8 in review for Guide Recommended Plays

ATS Results 3-1 for +$38 and ROI=43.2%

SU Results: 1-1 but +$35 for 120% ROI

ML Parlays Results: 0-3 on all parlays -$75 ROI 0.00%

Totals 4-5 for -$3 and ROI of -2%

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ATS Games – Year to Date AQ Teams: 9-4  non-AQ 1-1

The odds and trends from the Team Game Guide have 4 ATS AQ games to play.  The 1 non-AQ is not part of the recommendations from the Guide

  • Wake Forest @ Duke +3
  • Arkansas @ Mississippi +15 1/2
  • Kansas State @ Kansas +11
  • Wisconsin @ Michigan State +8

Results 3-1 for +$38 and ROI=43.2%

Non – AQ game that meets the AQ parameters.  I have not modeled the non-AQs so I am testing it anytime I find a non-AQ game that meets the AQ standards.  1-1 on the year and hoping for 75% by the end.

  • Non AQ Ohio @ Akron +14 1/2

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Straight Up Games

2 SU plays this week.  They have big odds and very solid value based on the Guide profiles.   These are always teams that are picked to win in the CFBMatrix model, are very likely to cash based on coaching history and patterns of winning when picked to win and provide big payoffs if hit.

Week 8 has two picks.  Both are home teams, were picked by the CBFMatrix charts to win back in March, have over 75% win rate when picked to win at home and have big odds against them in the current lines.

SU – Michigan State +245 over Wisconsin – Why…MSU is 7-2 at home in Big Ten when the CFBMatrix picks them to win over the last 5 seasons.  Wisconsin is 3-7 when picked to loose on the road in conference play in the same time period.

SU – Missouri +240 over Oklahoma State – Why?  Missouri is a 77% winner at home when the Matrix picks them to win.  More of a risk than the MSU/Wisc game as Oklahoma State is the best road upset winner in the Big12.

Results: 1-1 but +$35 for 120% ROI

In picking both there are 3 outcomes.  250% ROI on 2 for 2, 20% if they split and 2 unit loss if both are losers.  It is risk reward here.   Big upside potential but past historic performance, IMO, makes good odds.  Pass if you like lower risk/reward options like the ATS games and especially the 1:1 ML parlay options.

Upset of the Week: According to Vegas the SU plays mentioned above would be upsets.

GUIDE’S LIST OF GAMES TO PLAY – Straight up or parlay

Week 8 notes.  There are not a lot of games that stick out that make me want to play them.  Mostly because the odds are so low with ROIs under 15% per game (less than -750).  There are a lot of tight games that make me want to play straight up versus parlay.  However, many of these teams are AVOIDs due to coaching, new coaching or being part of the ACC.

ALL CFBMATRIX PARLAYS ARE FOR SU WINS ON EACH TEAM!  (no ATS!)

Oct 19, 2011 Note:  I do not really like the games and ML odds this week.  I am going to play what I feel are the best 3 for Mr. Anderson’s Parlay and one or two other wild ones for fun.  Advice is to stick with the ATS games and low risk ML parlays.  Email or tweet me with requests to breakdown your games of interest or parlays.

Bad Coaching Parlay – approx 2:1 Cal, Texas A&M, Illinois and Florida State (was thinking about South Florida as well but Cincy to close).

Mr. Anderson’s Parlay  –  Approx 1:1 West Virginia, Penn State and Vanderbilt

Optional plays with higher risk and against the best bets odds of a Guide recommendation.  These are just for fun but I am playing them for entertainment as risk/reward is high.

The Zion Parlay –  +720  West Virginia, Florida State, Illinois, Arkansas, LSU, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt,

Results 0-3 on all parlays -$75 ROI 0.00%

*Payouts are estimates depending on the Sportsbook you use for your entertainment only.  No pick is a guarantee nor recommendation.  All picks are your choice, your risk and for your entertainment only.

Total CFBMatrix Plays for Week 8
ATS – 4 AQ recommended games risking $88 for $80
SU Moneyline Parlays – 3 SU parlays for $25 each max payout $283
SU Games – 2 games for approx $50 played max payout $245

Follower questions:

@cfbmatrix Hey DB I’m thinking 5 team ml parlay FSU, Tex AM, LSU, Stanford, and Hawaii. That should cash right?  While the CFBMatrix picked all those teams to win this week back in March, I feel there is a lot of danger in the 5 games.  Hawaii is about a solid as a lock as you will find this week.  They are at home and should crush NMST (avoid them on the road).  Stanford is solid good at home and UW is subpar on the road under Sark.  I think the ML should be higher but a good risk nevertheless.  LSU is always a good bet at home and especially on the road.  This ML should be stronger but LSU has been a rock for me for 5+ years.  A&M is much better on the road (-3) than at home (-8).  When picked to win on the road under Sherman the Aggies are 5-4.  ISU is well coached and when at home picked to lose they are 3-4 but the 3 wins were all against CFBMatrix RR teams over #40.  A&M is #17RR.  FSU should easily put away Maryland at home at #5RR vs #37RR.  However, Fisher is 9-5 when picked to win by the Matrix but those 5 losses were teams with RR of #25, #18, #9, #13, #57 (Wake).  The 9 wins were all against #30RR or higher.  Overall a good card with significant risk.  Should be getting 3:1 or better with the risk.

@cfbmatrix Tonight’s stellar matchups? Zona v. UCLA? If Coach Neuheisel didn’t have half the bad track record of game performance I would be confident in UCLA.  But a 9 win team with a 5 win coach doesn’t sit well and the Guide says to Avoid UCLA.  Arizona, with a now replaced HC, is in limbo and a complete unknown.  Except their QB Foles and in CFB an experienced, good QB is like gold.  The Chart took UCLA, but would AVOID any plays.  Spread, ML, history, metrics all point to a coin flip.  And I hate coin flips.

@cfbmatrix I’m curious on ur thoughts about the Purdue Illinois game. I go to Purdue and feel like the line is way too small to not take ILL – Well you have Illinois giving -4 to -3.5 and the ML is at -175.  As you know, the CFBMatrix was created for Ws and Ls, not ATS.  This spread does not meet the metrics for a CFBMatrix ATS pick, so lets look at who should win.  Under Zook the Illini are 3-5 when picked to win on the road and 11-14 when picked to win.  But…. in 2010-11 seasons he is 11-2 when picked to win.  Purdue at home, when picked to lose is 2-6 under Coach Hope.  Do the math, Purdue has a 6% chance to win if the odds hold form over the last 2 seasons.  

@cfbmatrix ND/USC. Thanks. Just like the UCLA/AZ game you have a lot of issues.  Under Kiffin USC is 2-7 when picked to winNotre Dame with a #11RR is the type of team USC has been losing too under LK.  But HC Kelly is equally awful in South Bend at -4 at home since he started.  At -330 I do not like the ML value for the Irish and -8.5 is a lot to cover due to USC’s talent (even with Barkley out).

=========================================================================

Week 10 Notes

—————————————————————————————————————————–

ATS Games – Year to Date AQ Teams: 13-9

The odds and trends from the Team Game Guide have 2 ATS AQ games to play.

  • South Florida @ Rutgers +2.5 – Rutgers  to cover at home
  • Virginia @ Maryland +3.5 – AVOIDING ACC since week 5 – Not playing though Guide suggests
  • ASU @ UCLA  +8.5 – UCLA to cover at home
  • Cincinnati @ Pitt +3.5 – P

—————————————————————————————————————————-

Straight Up Games

1 SU plays this week.  It has good value based on the Guide profiles.  Others were passed due to coaching and performance issues.  USC and Ohio State are both solid but unstable at the HC and unproven in consistency within the Matrix and the Guide.  These are always teams that are picked to win in the CFBMatrix model, are very likely to cash based on coaching history and patterns of winning when picked to win and provide big payoffs if hit.

Week 9 has one pick.  It was a game picked by the CBFMatrix charts to win back in March, have over 75% win rate when picked to win at home and have big odds against them in the current lines.

SU –  Tennessee Vols over South Carolina getting approx +$155 at posting.

GUIDE’S LIST OF GAMES TO PLAY – Straight up or parlay

Week 9 notes.  There are not a lot of games that stick out that make me want to play them.  Mostly because the odds are so low with ROIs under 15% per game (less than -750).  There are a lot of tight games that make me want to play straight up versus parlay.  However, many of these teams are AVOIDs due to coaching, new coaching or being part of the ACC.

ALL CFBMATRIX PARLAYS ARE FOR SU WINS ON EACH TEAM!  (no ATS!)

Mr. Anderson’s Parlay (best bet and 5-2 on the year)  –  4:5 Odds Oklahoma, Virginia Tech and Arkansas

Home Team Parlay – 2:1 odds Washington, Auburn, Penn State and Michigan (add OKState for more risk)

Away Team Parlay – 1:1 odds Iowa, Arkansas, Virginia Tech and Oklahoma

Top 25 RR Parlay – 5:1 odds Washington, Oklahoma, Auburn, Penn State, Arkansas, Michigan

Optional plays with higher risk and against the best bets odds of a Guide recommendation.  These are just for fun but I am playing them for entertainment as risk/reward is high.

The Zion Parlay – 6:1 odds Washington, Auburn, Penn State, Michigan, Iowa, Arkansas, Virginia Tech  and Oklahoma

Results

*Payouts are estimates depending on the Sportsbook you use for your entertainment only.  No pick is a guarantee nor recommendation.  All picks are your choice, your risk and for your entertainment only.

Total CFBMatrix Plays for Week 9
ATS – 4 AQ recommended games risking $88 for $80 – Went 1-3 for a $68 loss
SU Moneyline Parlays – 5 SU parlays for $25 each max payout $375 – 3-2 for a $71 gain
SU Games – 1 games for approx $20 played max payout $30 – 0-1 for $20 loss

Total 10 plays going 4-6 with a loss of $17

=========================================================================

Week 10 Notes

—————————————————————————————————————————–

ATS Games – Year to Date AQ Teams: 13-9

The odds and trends from the Team Game Guide have 3 ATS AQ games to play.

  • South Florida @ Rutgers +2.5 – Rutgers to cover at home
  • ASU @ UCLA  +8.5 – UCLA to cover at home
  • Cincinnati @ Pitt +3.5 – Panthers to cover at home
  • Virginia @ Maryland +2.5 – AVOIDING ALL ACC PLAYS since week 5 – though the Guide suggests to play it.  Not going too.

—————————————————————————————————————————-

Straight Up Games

5 ML plays this week.  All have good value (-200 or better) based on the Guide profiles.  Others were passed due to coaching and performance issues.  These are always teams that are picked to win in the CFBMatrix model, are very likely to cash based on coaching history and patterns of winning when picked to win and provide big payoffs if hit.

Week 10 has one pick.  All 5 were games picked by the CBFMatrix charts to win back in March, have over 75% win rate when picked to win good odds for/against them in the current lines.

Moneyline picks to win Week 10

Rutgers
Baylor
Pitt
Troy
Hawaii

Avoided the Maryland recommendation as they are in the ACC.

GUIDE’S LIST OF GAMES TO PLAY – Straight up or parlay

Week 10 notes.  As usual this time of the year, there are not a lot of games that stick out that make me want to play them.  Mostly because the odds are so low with ROIs under 15% per game (less than -750).  There are a lot of tight games that make me want to play straight up versus parlay.  However, many of these teams are AVOIDs due to coaching, new coaching or being part of the ACC.

ALL CFBMATRIX PARLAYS ARE FOR SU WINS ON EACH TEAM!  (no ATS!)

Mr. Anderson’s Parlay (best bet and 6-2 on the year)  –  approx 1:2 Oklahoma, Notre Dame, USC

Home Team Parlay – approx 1.25:1 Florida, West Virginia, Miami, Texas, Oklahoma

Away Team Parlay – Approx 3:1 w/ all 6 – Notre Dame, Michigan, USC (Add for more risk: But avoiding Oregon, Stanford (Riley) and UNC (NC State is wild +/- team)

Top 25 RR Parlay – approx 2:1 Southern Cal, Florida, Michigan, Oklahoma, Notre Dame (Avoiding Miami and North Carolina as they are in the ACC which has been 60% YTD.  Aslo avoiding Nebraska due to playing NW at home.  NW is a tough road team and Pelini due for home upset L.  Same with Texas at home vs Texas Tech)

Optional plays with higher risk and against the best bets odds of a Guide recommendation.  These are just for fun but I am playing them for entertainment as risk/reward is high.

The Zion Parlay – approx 9:1 USC, Florida, West Virginia, Miami, Michigan, Texas, Oklahoma, North Carolina, Cal, Notre Dame

Results

*Payouts are estimates depending on the Sportsbook you use for your entertainment only.  No pick is a guarantee nor recommendation.  All picks are your choice, your risk and for your entertainment only.

Total CFBMatrix Plays for Week 10
ATS – 3 AQ recommended games risking $66 for $60 –
SU Moneyline Parlays – 4 SU parlays for $25 each max payout $200
ML Games – 5 games for approx $125 played max payout $142

ATS +$60   Parlays -$63    ML -$23  Week 10 Total -$26

====================================================================

Week 11 Notes

—————————————————————————————————————————–

ATS Games – Year to Date AQ Teams: 16-9

The odds and trends from the Team Game Guide have 3 ATS AQ games to play.

  • La Tech @ Ole Miss +2 – Ole Miss to cover and win at home
  • Oklahoma State @ Texas Tech +17 – Tech to cover at home (playing +600 W too)
  • Nebraska @ Penn State +3.5 – You May Avoid PSU

—————————————————————————————————————————-

Straight Up Games

10 ML plays this week.  All have good value (-200 or better) based on the Guide profiles.  Others were passed due to coaching and performance issues.  These are always teams that are picked to win in the CFBMatrix model, are very likely to cash based on coaching history and patterns of winning when picked to win and provide big payoffs if hit.

Week 10 has one pick.  All 10 were games picked by the CFBMatrix charts to win back in March, have over 75% win rate when picked to win good odds for/against them in the current lines.

Moneyline picks to win Week 11

W -Va Tech over Georgia Tech getting -115 – LOCK Hokies are 9-1 on road in conference when Matrix picks them to win.  GT is 2-2 at home when picked to lose under Johnson.

W – Michigan over Illinois getting -110.  Big recruiting rank gap and Zook has been a sub-par coach at home for years.  Getting even money, though on the road for the best recruiter against a bad coach in the Matrix.

L-Kentucky over Vanderbilt getting +400.  Kentucky #45RR at #61RR Vanderbilt.  Getting 4 to 1 with better recruiter.  HC Phillips also only 1 lose in 2 years on the road when picked to win by the Matrix

W -West Virginia over Cincinnati +150 – WVU has 1 road upset loss in the last 2 year when picked to win.  Getting nearly 1.5 to 1 which is way above the odds for WVU to win.

L- Texas over Missouri -115.  Nearly even money for a huge recruiting gap.  Back to back upset wins are rare for any team.

L- Texas Tech over Oklahoma State +600 Odds are the best reason to play this game.  Gundy cant win them all on the road and #33 hosting #32 recruiting rank is usually a 50/50 which is a good exchange for +600

L- Tennessee over Arkansas +450 – This would really shock a lot of folks but #13 at #25 is a close game and worth the risk for a 4:1 + return.

L- Florida over South Carolina +130 – #8 at #19 is a coin flip and getting better than 1:1 odds.

Oregon over Stanford +145 – #16 at #26 again a coin flip and getting better than 1:1.  Oregon has only one road loss in last 30 games to a team that they out recruited.


GUIDE’S LIST OF GAMES TO PLAY – Straight up or parlay

Week 10 notes.  As usual this time of the year, there are not a lot of games that stick out that make me want to play them.  Mostly because the odds are so low with ROIs under 15% per game (less than -750).  There are a lot of tight games that make me want to play straight up versus parlay.  However, many of these teams are AVOIDs due to coaching, new coaching or being part of the ACC.

ALL CFBMATRIX PARLAYS ARE FOR SU WINS ON EACH TEAM!  (no ATS!)

Mr. Anderson’s Parlay (best bet and 7-2 on the year)  –  approx -165 Alabama, Arizona State, Notre Dame and Northwestern

Trinity Parlay – approx 1:1 Ohio State, SMU, Rutgers

Optional plays with higher risk and against the best bets odds of a Guide recommendation.  These are just for fun but I am playing them for entertainment as risk/reward is high.

Results

*Payouts are estimates depending on the Sportsbook you use for your entertainment only.  No pick is a guarantee nor recommendation.  All picks are your choice, your risk and for your entertainment only.

Total CFBMatrix Plays for Week 11
ATS – 2 AQ recommended games risking $44 for $40
SU Moneyline Parlays – 2 SU parlays for $25 each max payout $ 38
ML Games – 10 games for approx $250 played max payout $580

ATS +$xx Parlays -$xx ML -$xx Week 11 Total -$xx

Follower questions:

====================================================================

Week 12 Notes

—————————————————————————————————————————–

ATS Games – Year to Date AQ Teams: 21-11

The odds and trends from the Team Game Guide have 4 ATS AQ games to play.

  • Tennessee Volunteers +1 WIN
  • Washington State +3 WIN
  • Rutgers +3 WIN
  • Illinois +16 WIN

—————————————————————————————————————————-

Straight Up Games

3 ML plays this week.  All have good value (-200 or better) based on the Guide profiles.  Others were passed due to coaching and performance issues.  These are always teams that are picked to win in the CFBMatrix model, are very likely to cash based on coaching history and patterns of winning when picked to win and provide big payoffs if hit.

Moneyline picks to win Week 12

Rutgers to Beat Cincinnati +130 WIN
Miami to beat South Florida -110 WIN
Louisville to beat UConn +100 WIN

ALL CFBMATRIX PARLAYS ARE FOR SU WINS ON EACH TEAM!  (no ATS!)

Mr. Anderson’s Parlay (best bet and 7-3 on the year)  – Michigan, Oklahoma, ASU LOSS

Trinity Parlay – none

Optional plays with higher risk and against the best bets odds of a Guide recommendation.  These are just for fun but I am playing them for entertainment as risk/reward is high.

Results

*Payouts are estimates depending on the Sportsbook you use for your entertainment only.  No pick is a guarantee nor recommendation.  All picks are your choice, your risk and for your entertainment only.

Total CFBMatrix Plays for Week 12
ATS – 4 AQ recommended games risking $88 for $80
SU Moneyline Parlays – 1 SU parlay for $25 each max payout $ 19
ML Games – 3 Games bet $75 to win $82

Results: 4-0 ATS $80+0-1 Parlays + 3-0 ML +$82 = Bet $188 Total up $137

Follower questions:

3 Responses to 2011 Moneyline and ATS Entertainment Guide

  1. Dan says:

    Hi,

    I stumbled across this site through some great linkage from Bob Condotta of the Seattle Times. I love the concept and am following enthusiastically trying to learn more. Wondering if your picking for week 6? Thanks so much…

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