2011 Weekly Picks

Reminder!  The CFBMatrix does not ‘remodel’ or adjust in during the season.  One of the points of the model is to show that most games are decided in the schedule and recruiting. I do not expect to get every game right or even above 80%.  I forecast all the games on March 1, 2011 for the entire season.

I will post the expected results of all AQ schools games for each week based on the CFBMatrix for recruiting and home/away adjustments.    I will put in possible upset alerts due to the additional coaching adjustment and which games are very difficult to model due to inconsistent play by either or both teams.

Weeks 1 & 2 below.  LINK TO WEEK #3 (click)

Week 1 – Sept 1 – Sept 5, 2011 – Winners and Notes

#1 All AQ teams over every FCS team and every non-AQ team (ex. CU & Hawaii).  All non-AQ teams with the best recruiting over non-AQs and FCS schools.  And yes Baylor, Georgia and Ole Miss to cover and win.   Baylor is the highest risk and I would probably be better served to pass on that one, but what fun is it if someone doesn’t go out on a limb?

Head to Head AQ Team games

  • Notre Dame
  • Southern Cal
  • Boston College
  • Syracuse – Upset Alert – Great potential ML or less risky ATS.  Bestbets link
  • LSU
  • Miami

9/1/2011 Week 1 CFBMatrix Update – Total – 67 wins 9 loses – 88.1%

  • ACC – 11 games & CFBMatrix went 8-3 (72%) Coaches +1/-2
  • Big 12 – 10 games – 100% correct in the CFBMatrix
  • SEC – 12 games – 10/12 (83.3%) Coaching effect -2
  • PAC12 -12 games – 10/12 (83.3%) Coaching effect -2
  • Big Ten – 12 games – 10/12 (83.3%) Coaching effect +1/-1
  • Big East – 8 games – 7/8 (87.5%) Coaching effect +1
  • Independant – 2 games – 0/2 (0.0%) Coaching effect +1/-1
  • Non-AQs – 46 games – 43/46 (93.4%)

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Week 2 – Sept 7 – Sept 12, 2011 – Winners and Notes

#1 All AQ teams over every FCS team and every non-AQ team.  All non-AQ teams over all non-AQ teams they out recruit including all FCS teams.

Head to Head AQ Team Games

  • Oklahoma State over Arizona – OSU won 10 of last 11 at home vs teams they out recruit over last 4 yrs
  • Arizona State over Mizzou – Both coaches OK. Pinkel better on road than home.  Edge to home team
  • Iowa over Iowa State – Iowa weak on the road and ISU sneaks in upset wins at home – Big Upset Alert
  • Auburn over Miss State
  • North Carolina over Rutgers
  • Alabama over Penn State – PSU rarely gets upset wins or losses and ‘Bama a road killer
  • Stanford over Duke
  • California – Cal is weak on the road but the Buffs are vastly under talented.  Upset alert!
  • NC State – Wake is a huge + team at home and NC State is very inconsistent – Upset alert!
  • Tennessee over Cincinnati
  • Georgia over South Carolina – Advantage to home team (though UGA models better on the road)       Caution: Coaching effect has Georgia -2 games.  USC, Florida & Auburn mostly likely – games.
  • Indiana over Virginia – Close teams advantage to home team
  • Southern Cal over Utah
  • Vanderbilt over Connecticut
  • Michigan over Notre Dame – New HC at UM but ND lost 4 in 2010 due to coaching.
  • Boston College over UCF – Slight edge to BC and F.S. not lost yet on the road to a team they out recruit

9/8/2011 Week 2 CFBMatrix Update – Total – 54 wins 11 loses – 83.1%

  • AQ vs AQ team – 16 games 12-4 (80%)
  • NonAQ vs Non AQ – 21 games 17-4 (80.1%)
  • ACC –  9 games & CFBMatrix went 6-3 (67%) Coaching Effect +2/-1
  • Big 12 – 5  games – 4-1 (80%) Coaching effect +1/0
  • SEC – 10 games – 9-1  (90%) Coaching effect 0/-1
  • PAC12 -9 games – 9-0 (100%) Coaching effect 0/0
  • Big Ten – 12 games – 8-4  (67%) Coaching effect 0/-4
  • Big East – 8 games – 7-1 (87.5%) Coaching effect 0/-1
  • Independant – 4 games – 3-1 (75.0%) Coaching effect +1/0
  • Non-AQs – 39 games – 29-10  (74.3%)

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One Response to 2011 Weekly Picks

  1. Pingback: Daily Bullets 9.7 | Pistols Firing

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