2011 – Week 10

Reminder! The CFBMatrix does not ‘remodel’ or adjust in during the season. One of the points of the model is to show that most games are decided in the schedule and recruiting. I do not expect to get every game right or even above 80%. I forecast all the games on March 1, 2011 for the entire season. I will post the expected results of all AQ schools games for each week based on the CFBMatrix for recruiting and home/away adjustments. I will put in possible upset alerts due to the additional coaching adjustment and which games are very difficult to model due to inconsistent play by either or both teams.

Week 10 – Oct 31, 2011 – Nov 6, 2011 – Winners and Notes

Overall 32-21  YTD 75%
AQ Teams 20-12
non-AQ 14-9
Top 25 15-5  YTD 80%
ACC  3-2   YTD 59%
SEC  5-2   YTD 81%
BIG EAST  1-3  YTD 76%
Big 12  4-1   YTD 73%

Big Ten  3-2   YTD 80%
PAC12  4-2   YTD 84%

#1 All AQ teams over every FCS team and every non-AQ team. All non-AQ teams with the best recruiting over other non-AQs and FCS schools plus a home field advantage adjustment. Here is exactly how week 6 modeled in March based solely off recruiting ranks and home/away scheduling. Potential upsets noted. RR is short for recruiting rank. The CFBMatrix has its own National team recruiting rank comprised of all available player information to reduce team and regional bias and create the most accurate team ranking available. We are in the process of adjusting past years for drop outs and dismissals to get better. But at 76% correct season to date using it and schedules… not to bad. Questions from Twitter and email:

Tweet question from NotJoeLeeDunn@cfbmatrix we need a matrix breakdown of bama v lsu if not already out there dave!

Alabama – Under Saban has played 6 home conference games in which their opponent was within 10 spot of their pre-season recruiting rank and the CFBMatrix picked them pre-season (all picks are done in March)to win. This year BAMA is #1 and LSU #4.  In those games they were 5-1. The average score of those games was 25-11.  In all 5 wins they gave up no MORE than 15 points.

LSU – In the last 4 years LSU has played 7 conference games on the road in which the CFBMatrix picked them to lose and their opponent was within 10 Recruiting Rank spots that season.  LSU is 4-3 in those games scoring an average of 24.7 and giving up 24.5. In the wins LSU scored from 20 to 41 points.  In the loses 15 to 21.  

In summary, the CFBMatrix picked Alabama to win in March.  Season to date, those March picks for all SEC teams are 55-11.  The odds favor Alabama and the stats point to the winner being the first to 20.

Final Score Alabama 24 LSU 17

Mark VoylesHawgnDosMark Voyles   @cfbmatrix what do you think about the Hogs vs SC matchup saturday in Fayetteville? Another top 10 battle in the #SEC!
One of the underrated and overlooked games this week!  #19 vs #25 in RR (CFBMatrix 4 yr recruiting rank).  Looking at the coaches, Petrino is the highest rated + coach in the SEC.  Spurrier is slightly above average at +1. The Matrix Game Guide shows Arkansas has had 7 home conference games in the last 3 years that the Matrix picked them to win.  They went 6-1 in those games.  In contrast, South Carolina has had 11 games on the road in the SEC in the last 4 years in which the model picked them to lose.  Their record, 3-8.  Overall, Spurrier is better on the road vs the Matrix than on the road.  On the road, USC has won the exact number of projected games won over the last 4 seasons.  In my opinion, the Matrix pick of Arkansas over USC is the best odds.
Tuesday, November 1 Visitor CFBMatrix RR Home CFBMatrix RR Winner Notes
7:00 PM ET Northern Illinois at Toledo  #111 #82 Toledo
Wednesday, November 2
8:00 PM ET Temple at Ohio  #88 #106 Temple
Thursday, November 3
7:30 PM ET Akron at Miami (OH)  #96 #112 Miami (OH)
8:00 PM ET Florida State at Boston College  #5 #43 Florida St Should be an easy win for Noles
8:00 PM ET Tulsa at UCF  #74 #56 UCF UCF should roll easily
Friday, November 4
8:00 PM ET Central Michigan at Kent State  #86 #114 Central Michigan
9:00 PM ET USC at Colorado  #2  #68 USC Said it in March, Buffs modeled to go 1-12.  They are going to lose out.  Trojans should roll at home!
Saturday, November 5
TBA LSU at Alabama  #4  #1 Alabama  LSU is very tough on the road (tougher than at home) But Bama is equally brutal to beat anywhere.  Two top 10 recruiters under the CFBMatrix system means you take the home team and watch the game!
TBA Texas A&M at Oklahoma  #19 #9 Oklahoma
TBA Kansas State at Oklahoma State  #77 #32 Oklahoma State
TBA Purdue at Wisconsin  #59 #49 Wisconsin
TBA Stanford at Oregon State  #26 #48 Stanford Easy win in Corvallis but Nov/Dec is when Riley blow up the CFBMatrix
TBA South Carolina at Arkansas  #19 #25 Arkansas Same as LSU/Bama.  Tight recruiting ranks go with the home field unless coaching sucks.  It does not in this game and in the SEC
TBA Oregon at Washington  #16 #24 Washington I would have been happier with the system taking Oregon this week and Stanford next week.  But the Ducks have a +1 coach and are highly favored to win big.
TBA Northwestern at Nebraska  #65 #22 Nebraska Upset Alert! Huskers always give up one big upset L at home each year.  Is this the one?
TBA Louisville at West Virginia  #44 #29 West Virginia
TBA Minnesota at Michigan State  #52 #31 Michigan State
TBA Michigan at Iowa  #12 #42 Michigan Ferentz doesnt pull many upset Ws, but better chances at home.  Still low odds for Hawkeyes to beat UM
TBA Texas Tech at Texas  #33  #3 Texas Longhorns roll and stay in the top 25.  Norman will remain a fluke for years to come.
TBA Utah at Arizona  #58 #53 Arizona Cats to win at home.  KW has remained good against the bottom of the PAC12 and could easily win on the road this weekend.
TBA Washington State at California  #55  #27 Cal Cal should run away from WSU.  Wulff does not win on the road and Tedford rarely loses at home to teams they out recruit
TBA Arizona State at UCLA  #36  #15 UCLA Upset Alert!  I said in March UCLA was the PAC12S darkhorse.  This game is for #1 in the PAC12 S
TBA Syracuse at Connecticut  #69 #80 Syracuse Orangeman by the nose of the football.  But adjusted for UConn at home it is very close
TBA Vanderbilt at Florida  #61 #8 Florida Gators roll despite Vandy’s solid effort this season too much UF talent.
TBA New Mexico State at Georgia  NA #6 Georgia Should be over in Q1
TBA Kansas at Iowa State  #51 #71 Kansas – Personally hate this pick but…
TBA Ole Miss at Kentucky  #34 #45 Ole Miss Close game again with edge to the Rebels.
TBA Virginia at Maryland  #57 #37 Maryland When this pick was made in March I didn’t think London would get his team so hot just yet and Edsell would stink so bad.  #RR edge to Maryland
TBA North Carolina at NC State  #18 #34 UNC Watch out!  NC State has a knack for winning and losing upsets.  COuld be a home W.  Tarheels should have too much talent for NCState and O’Brien has been one of the worst in 2011
TBA Notre Dame at Wake Forest #11 #67 Notre Dame
TBA South Florida at Rutgers #47 #39 Rutgers  Tight #RR (recruiting rank).  Nod goes to home team again.
TBA Indiana at Ohio State  #63 #7 Ohio State – Over by halftime
TBA Cincinnati at Pittsburgh  #50  #39 Pitt Huge BE game for the Bearcats on the road.  Taking the Panthers.
TBA Missouri at Baylor  #35 #41 Baylor Another battle of Tier III recruiters (Big 12 has 4 between 32 & 41).  Home field gets the nod.
TBA UTEP at Rice  #100 #90 Rice
TBA Tennessee-Martin at Miss State  NA #30 Miss State
TBA Arkansas St. at Florida Atlantic  #109 #115 Ark St FIU under perform so far and Arkansas State way over perform YTD
TBA Duke at Miami (FL)  #64 #14 Miami
TBA Mid. Tennessee at Tennessee  #104  #13 Tennessee
12:00 PM ET Ball State at Eastern Michigan  #113 #117 E. Michigan FUGGLY Game of the week
2:00 PM ET TCU at Wyoming #70 #102 TCU
3:00 PM ET Tulane at Southern Methodist  #92 #66 SMU
3:30 PM ET LA-Monroe at LA-Lafayette #119 #116 LA-Lafayette
3:30 PM ET Army at Air Force  #99  #93 Air Force
3:30 PM ET Troy at Navy  #79 #104 Troy Troy has been a huge disappointment in 2011.  should have smoked this league with their #RR and schedule
4:00 PM ET Idaho at San Jose State  #110 #103 SJSU
4:00 PM ET Florida Inter. at W. Kentucky  #87 #98 W. Kentucky Close game.  Real #RR coin flip.
4:00 PM ET Southern Miss at East Carolina  #54  #84 Southern Miss
7:00 PM ET Houston at UAB  #62 #97 Houston
8:00 PM ET New Mexico at San Diego State  #94 #81 SDSU
10:30 PM ET Boise State at UNLV  #75  #91 Boise State
10:30 PM ET Louisiana Tech at Fresno State  #85 #72 Fresno
Sunday, November 6
12:00 AM ET Utah State at Hawaii  #108 #76 Hawaii

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