2011 – Week 11

Week 11 CFBMatrix Contest

Pick any Ten FBS Games listed below and tweet me @cfbmatrix , email Dave@cfbmatrix.com or log in the comments below your ten winners (name or games #s below).  To win you must (1) beat the CFBMatrix picks done in March for those ten games and (2) be #1 for total correct picks.  All entries that go 10 for 10 are automatic winners.  Please try to be fair in our honor system and enter just one time per week.  Week 11 winner gets a CFBMatrix t-shirt in their team colors with Week 11 Pick’em Champ on it (or something like that)

Week 11 Pick’Em Contest Winner  –  @Jake_Sims

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Reminder! The CFBMatrix does not ‘remodel’ or adjust in during the season. One of the points of the model is to show that most games are decided in the schedule and recruiting. I do not expect to get every game right or even above 80%. I forecast all the games on March 1, 2011 for the entire season. I will post the expected results of all AQ schools games for each week based on the CFBMatrix for recruiting and home/away adjustments. I will put in possible upset alerts due to the additional coaching adjustment and which games are very difficult to model due to inconsistent play by either or both teams.

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11/13/2011 thru Week 11 CFBMatrix Update – Total – 467 wins 170 loses – 73%

  • ACC – 85 games & CFBMatrix went 53 – 32  ( 62%)
  • Big 12 – 59 games – 41 – 18 ( 70%) correct in the CFBMatrix
  • SEC – 79 games – 62 – 17 (78%)
  • PAC12 – 76 games – 62 – 14 (80%)
  • Big Ten – 79 games – 62 – 17 (79%)
  • Big East – 54 games – 42 – 12 (81%)
  • Independent – 37 games – 27 – 10 (73%)
  • Non-AQs – 312 games – 225 – 87 (72%)

BTW:  Top 25 teams have played 226 games through week 11 and 178 (79%) of those games were predicted correctly using only the CFBMatrix recruiting rank composite and a +/- home field advantage adjustment to recruited talent.

Week 11 – Nov 7, 2011 – Nov 13, 2011 – Winners and Notes

Top 25 14-7
ACC 6-0
PAC12 3-3
SEC 2-4
Big 12 1-3
Big Ten 4-2
Big East 4-0
Non Aqs 15-10
Independents 3-1

#1 All AQ teams over every FCS team and every non-AQ team. All non-AQ teams with the best recruiting over other non-AQs and FBS schools plus a home field advantage adjustment. Here is exactly how week 11 modeled in March based solely off recruiting ranks and home/away scheduling. Potential upsets noted. RR is short for recruiting rank. The CFBMatrix has its own National team recruiting rank comprised of all available player information to reduce team and regional bias and create the most accurate team ranking available. We are in the process of adjusting past years for drop outs and dismissals to get better. But at 76% correct season to date using it and schedules… not to bad. Questions from Twitter and email:

Tuesday, November 8 Visitor CFBMatrix RR Home CFBMatrix RR Winner Notes
8:00 PM ET 1. Northern Illinois at Bowling Green  #111  #95  Bowling Green BG has been a failure this year and NIU has overperformed.  I am not liking this pre-season pick
8:00 PM ET 2. Western Michigan at Toledo  #101 #82  Toledo Toledo should take of E. MI at home
Wednesday, November 9
8:00 PM ET 3. Miami (OH) at Temple  #112  #88  Temple Should be an easy home W for Temple
Thursday, November 10
7:30 PM ET 4. Ohio at Central Michigan
8:00 PM ET 5. Virginia Tech at  Georgia Tech  #28  #47  VA Tech Hokies are road killers.  OK to beat against them for a home upset in the ACC, not so good on the road
8:00 PM ET 6. Houston at Tulane  #62  #92  Houston Even on the road Houston +20 adjusted recruiting rank positions.  Another UH W
Friday, November 11
8:00 PM ET 7. South Florida at Syracuse  #47  #69  South Florida Cuse is solid at home under Marrone but a 22 spot 4yr Recruiting Rank (“RR”) gap is too much.  Could be interesting though as Holtz does not have a good road record in the Matrix.  +1 YTD
Saturday, November 12
TBA 8. Alabama at Mississippi State  #1  #30  Alabama Alabama is tougher on the road than at home.  MSU has odds of about 6% of winning this game.
TBA 9. Oklahoma State at Texas Tech  #32  #33 Texas Tech Upset Alert.  Gundy is #1 road coach in the Big12 and Tuberville has been subpar in performance.  But its in Lubbock and trouble could quickly brew with #32 vs #33
TBA 10. Wisconsin at Minnesota  #49  #52  Wisconsin Coaching effect is zero in Minnesota but this one could/should be a better game than folks expect
TBA 11. Wake Forest at  Clemson  #67 #23  Clemson Grobe is always dangerous and the season is still not done for Swinney (-2 last year).  Tiger should win but dont hold your breath.
TBA 12. Oregon at   Stanford  #16  #26  Oregon On the road this is a real coin toss game.  But Matrix takes the better recruiter in this profile
TBA 13. Tennessee at  Arkansas  #13  #25  Tennessee Upset Alert.  Petrino #1 game coach in the SEC, but Dooley has the talent.  Tough road game and close.
TBA 14. Texas A&M at   Kansas State  #17  #77  Texas A&M Sherman is really bad on the road.  But he cant afford to lose this one or IMO he is toast
TBA 15. Nebraska at   Penn State  #22  #21  Penn State No, I am not changing the pick.  Sticking to the base of the Matrix.  PSU wins at home.
TBA 16. Florida at   South Carolina  #8  #19  Florida Mammoth game for both teams.  Matrix is sticking with Gators after home field adv adjustment and coaching adjustment for Gamecocks.
TBA 17. West Virginia at Cincinnati  #29  #50  West Virginia Holgerson unproven as a + game coach to date.  Jones is on his way out to bigger things at this pace.
TBA 18. Michigan State at Iowa  #31  #42  Michigan State Spartans by a nose.  Another every close game that could go either way!
TBA 19.  Michigan at   Illinois  #13  #40 Michigan Told ya all Zook was flat.  Michigan should easily win at Champaign this week.
TBA 20. Auburn at Georgia  #10  #6  Georgia Bulldogs with the easiest SEC conference schedule, Auburn with the toughest.  Matrix picked the home team again.
TBA 21. Texas at Missouri  #3  #35  Texas Big game for both teams.  Longhorns should win this at either stadium
TBA 22. Oregon State at California  #42  #29  Cal Cal is consistent at home and rarely loses to a team them out recruit by more than 10 ranking spots
TBA 23 Arizona at Colorado  #53  #68  Arizona Predicted Colorado to lose out after the Colorado St game.  No changes…ever
TBA 24. Miami (FL) at Florida State  #13  #5  FSU Close Recruiting Rankings so nod goes to the home team
TBA 25. Rice at Northwestern  #90 #65  Northwestern AQ beats non AQ 91% of the time
TBA 26. Pittsburgh at Louisville  #38  #44 Pittsburgh  UPSET Alert.  Strong is bad at home and Pitt has outrecruited UL the last 4 years.  L’Ville should win, but no home field advantage by shock if Pitt beats them.
TBA 27. North Carolina State at BC                     #37  #43  BC Two of the biggest underperformers of 2011.  Fans of the loser will be pissed either way
TBA 28. Louisiana Tech at Ole Miss  #85  #34  Ole Miss Even without Nutt Ole Miss must win this football game at home.
TBA 29. Marshall at Tulsa  #73  #74  Tulsa Very close.  Home field advantage sways it to Tulsa
TBA 30. Kentucky at Vanderbilt  #45  #61  Kentucky Pretty close game again.  Kentucky slightly better
TBA 31. Idaho at Brigham Young  #110  #60  BYU Yucky game for season ticket holders in Provo.  BYU should smoke Idaho +#50RR
TBA 32. UCLA at Utah  #15  #52  UCLA Big game for both teams.  But sticking with the talent gap
TBA 33. Duke at Virginia  #64  #57  Virginia One of the few ACC games where UVA is picked to win.  Best up and coming coach in the country is London.
TBA 34. Arizona State at Washington State  #36  #52  ASU WSU has beat 2 teams that out recruited them in the Matrix ranking system in the last 4 years under Wulff.
TBA 35. Louisiana-Lafayette at Arkansas State  #116  #109  Ark State
TBA 36. Florida Atlantic at Florida Inter.             #115 #87  FIU Disappointed with FUI in the Matrix YTD and ULL a superstar
TBA 37. Baylor at Kansas  #41  #51  Baylor Damn close again.
TBA 38.  Mid Tennessee at Louisiana-Monroe       #89 #119  Mid Tenn
TBA 39. Ohio State at Purdue  #7  #59  Ohio State Buckeyes should win by quite a few
TBA 40. Navy at Southern Methodist  #99  #66  SMU
TBA 41. North Texas at Troy  #105 #79  Troy Troy a huge letdown in the Matrix for 2011
1:00 PM ET 42. Buffalo at Eastern Michigan  #118  #117  E. Michigan  FUGGLY game of the week
2:00 PM ET 43. Wyoming at Air Force  #102  #93  Air Force
2:00 PM ET 44. Kent State at Akron  #114  #96 Akron Learning quickly this year (first time doing non-AQ without coaching adjustment #s) that Akron pretty much sucks.
3:00 PM ET 45. San Jose State at Utah State  #103 #108  Utah State
3:30 PM ET 46. TCU at   Boise State  #70  #75  Boise Favored TCU if the game hadn’t been changed to Boise by MWC.  and now Boise leaving anyways.
3:30 PM ET 47. Washington at USC  #24  #2  USC Upset Alert.  USC is 2-8 under Kiffin when playing a team with a CFBMatrix 4 yr recruiting rank better than #30.  Huskies are #24 in 2011 but Sark is a -3 coach on the road.  Matrix expects USC to win, just trends show no shock if they lose.
3:30 PM ET 48. Rutgers at Army  #39  #101  Rutgers Rutgers should smoke Army anywhere, anytime.  Anything less is an embarrassment
4:15 PM ET 49. UAB at Memphis  #97  #78  Memphis Got to get Memphis right sometimes.
6:00 PM ET 50. San Diego State at Colorado State  #81  #83  SDSU CSU has a zero home field effect variable
7:30 PM ET 51. Maryland vs. Notre Dame*  #37  #11  Notre Dame Notre Dame away from South bend is MUCH better and Edsall is stinking it up with Maryland.  Easy pick
8:00 PM ET 52. Western Kentucky at   LSU  #98  #4  LSU giggle…..
8:00 PM ET 53. Fresno State at New Mexico State  #72  #120  Fresno NMSU is the worst FBS 4 yr recruiter.  Hill has been horrible this year, but CANNOT lose this game!
8:00 PM ET 54. UCF at Southern Miss  $56  #54  USM Home field wins it
8:00 PM ET 55. East Carolina at UTEP  #84 #100  Pirates!
10:00 PM ET 56. UNLV at New Mexico  #91  #94  New Mexico
10:15 PM ET 57. Hawaii at Nevada  #107  #76  Hawaii I am getting sick of these pre-season Hawaii wins losing this year.  Here we go again.

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