2011 – Week 12

Week 12 CFBMatrix Contest

Pick any Ten FBS Games listed below and tweet me @cfbmatrix , email Dave@cfbmatrix.com or log in the comments below your ten winners (name or games #s below).  To win you must (1) beat the CFBMatrix picks done in March for those ten games and (2) be #1 for total correct picks.  All entries that go 10 for 10 are automatic winners.  Please try to be fair in our honor system and enter just one time per week.  Week 12 winner gets a CFBMatrix t-shirt in their team colors with Week 12 Pick’em Champ on it (or something like that)

Only one person beat the Matrix in Week 12 bmarks3 Bobby Marks went 8-2 including taking Baylor and Wake.  No on else had over 7 wins and no other ten picks #beatthematrix.

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Reminder! The CFBMatrix does not ‘remodel’ or adjust in during the season. One of the points of the model is to show that most games are decided in the schedule and recruiting. I do not expect to get every game right or even above 80%. I forecast all the games on March 1, 2011 for the entire season. I will post the expected results of all AQ schools games for each week based on the CFBMatrix for recruiting and home/away adjustments. I will put in possible upset alerts due to the additional coaching adjustment and which games are very difficult to model due to inconsistent play by either or both teams.

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11/21/2011 thru Week 12 CFBMatrix Update – Total – 490 wins 187 loses – 72%

  • ACC – 92 games & CFBMatrix went 57 – 35 ( 62%)
  • Big 12 – 64 games – 43 – 21 ( 67%) correct in the CFBMatrix
  • SEC – 87 games – 70 – 17 (81%)
  • PAC12 – 82 games – 65 – 17 (79%)
  • Big Ten – 85 games – 65 – 20 (77%)
  • Big East – 57 games – 45- 12 (79%)
  • Independent – 41 games – 31- 10 (76%)
  • Non-AQs – 337 games – 244 – 93 (72%)

BTW:  Top 25 teams have played 251 games through week 12 and 192 (77%) of those games were predicted correctly using only the CFBMatrix FARR (Field Adjusted Recruiting Rank).

Week 12 – Nov 14, 2011 – Nov 21, 2011 – Winners and Notes

#1 All AQ teams over every FCS team and every non-AQ team. All non-AQ teams with the best recruiting over other non-AQs and FBS schools plus a home field advantage adjustment. Here is exactly how week 11 modeled in March based solely off recruiting ranks and home/away scheduling. Potential upsets noted. RR is short for recruiting rank. The CFBMatrix has its own National team recruiting rank comprised of all available player information to reduce team and regional bias and create the most accurate team ranking available. We are in the process of adjusting past years for drop outs and dismissals to get better. But at 76% correct season to date using it and schedules… not to bad. Questions from Twitter and email:

For 247 Sports Duck Territory @DuckTerritory & @Jhopkins247 – Profiling USC at Oregon:  #3 RR USC and #16RR Oregon.  Not a lot to really breakdown here.  Oregon has not lost in 3 seasons at home and is an overall 4-0 in PAC12 play against teams that out recruit them and 4-3 under Chip Kelly (as HC and OC) against teams that out recruit them.  USC is 3-2 against teams that have an adjusted 4 year CFBMatrix recruiting rank under #20 and 2-1 in PAC10/12 play.  USC, under Lane Kiffen, is better on the road (-2 game) than at home (-4 games).  Oregon has the trends to back them winning this game, but odds should be only 2:1 in their favor.

Pude13–  @cfbmatrix Don’t know if you want these to here or where, but how about Rutgers – Cincinnati?  Considering that the CFBMatrix is perfect on Rutgers for 2011, I don’t know whether to call the Rutgers win a lock or due for failure due to the YTD perfect record.  Cincinnati is +2 this year and both upset wins are on the road.  Jones is 3-2 on the road in conference play and Schiano, over the last 5 seasons is 8-5 at home in conference play when picked to win within the Matrix.  This should be a very balanced and close game with Rutgers the odds favorite in the Matrix.
Tuesday, November 15

Visitor CFBMatrix
RR

Home CFBMatrix RR Winner Notes
Northern Illinois @ Ball State #111 #113 NUI
Wednesday, November 16
8:00 PM ET Ohio at Bowling Green  #106 #95  Bowling Green BG a dog this year.  Missed opportunity to compete for conference title
8:00 PM ET Western Michigan at Miami (OH)  #101 #112  W. Michigan
Thursday, November 17
8:00 PM ET North Carolina at No. 8 Virginia Tech  #18  #28  VA Tech Upset Alert. VaTech worse at home than the road and recruiting rank is very close after home field adjustment
8:00 PM ET No. 20 Southern Miss at UAB  #54  #97  USM Totally overmatched
8:00 PM ET Marshall at Memphis  #73  #78  Marshall Zero home field advantage for Memphis
Friday, November 18
8:00 PM ET No. 2 Oklahoma State at Iowa State  #32  #71  OK State Watch Out!  Rhoads is an upset master.  OSU should win but careful in Ames!
8:00 PM ET Toledo at Central Michigan  #82 #86  Toledo Big game at Central.  Close call
Saturday, November 19
12:00 PM ET Citadel at No. 12 South Carolina  NA  #19  South Carolina Over
12:00 PM ET Indiana at No. 15 Michigan State  #63  #31  Michigan State Over by halftime
12:00 PM ET No. 16 Nebraska at No. 18 Michigan  #22 #12  Michigan Huge game for both squads.  Nebraska rarely beats teams on the road that out recruit them and UM becoming solid under Hoke
12:00 PM ET No. 17 Wisconsin at Illinois  #49 #40  Illinois Big overperformer versus the worse 4 year coach in the Big Ten.  Illinois can win, and the Matrix picked them but Zook will be the factor this week, good or bad
12:00 PM ET Louisville at Connecticut  #44  #80  Louisville Cards solid on the road.  Terrible at home.  Big #RR gap
12:00 PM ET Minnesota at Northwestern #52  #65 Northwestern NWestern only +1 at home in the last 5 years.  Could be a good game and no shock if Minnesota pulls it off.
12:00 PM ET Cincinnati at Rutgers  #50 #39  Rutgers Huge game for both teams
12:00 PM ET Kansas at Texas A&M  #51  #17  Texas A&M Sherman may be out already and should be.  Lose and he may not get to coach the last game.
12:00 PM ET Akron at Buffalo  #96 #118  Akron Tired of watching Akron lose every week.  Could someone just get right of the HC and give me something new to try and be right on these guys?
12:00 PM ET Iowa at Purdue  #42  #61  Iowa Must win for Ferentz to keep from going -2 on the season.  Again
12:21 PM ET Kentucky at No. 14 Georgia  #45 #6 Georgia UGA in a quickie
12:30 PM ET Georgia Tech at Duke  #47  #64 Georgia Tech Could be a better game than folks think.
1:00 PM ET Samford at No. 24 Auburn  NA  #10 Auburn Over at half
1:00 PM ET Furman at Florida  NA  #8 Florida Ditto
1:00 PM ET Army at Temple  #99 #88 Temple
1:00 PM ET Eastern Michigan at Kent State  #117 #114  Kent St Fuggly game of the week
2:00 PM ET Georgia Southern at No. 3 Alabama NA #1 Alabama Over
2:00 PM ET New Mexico at Wyoming  #94 #102 Wyoming Close game with home field the difference
3:00 PM ET Maryland at Wake Forest #37  #67 Maryland Grobe is very tough any time and Edsall has been a total dog this year.
3:00 PM ET Arkansas State at Middle Tennessee  #109 #89 Mid Tenn
3:00 PM ET Tulsa at UTEP  #74 #100 Tulsa
3:30 PM ET Mississippi State at No. 6 Arkansas  #30 #25 Arkansas But a lot closer than folks realize.
3:30 PM ET No. 7 Clemson at North Carolina State #23  #34 Clemson Close game.  O’Brien is crafty.  AVOID plays on this one.
3:30 PM ET Southern Methodist at No. 11 Houston #66 #54 Houston
3:30 PM ET Colorado State at No. 19 TCU  #83 #70 TCU
3:30 PM ET No. 21 Penn State at Ohio State #21 #9 Ohio State Very interesting. Both teams desperate for a W this week
3:30 PM ET Miami (FL) at South Florida #14 #47 Miami This is it for Golden.  Another loss and the season is beyond the failure it has become.  That’s what happens when you hire someone that wins only at the expected levels of coaching.
3:30 PM ET Texas Tech at Missouri #33 #35 Missouri
3:30 PM ET Washington at Oregon State #24 #47 Washington Upset alert!  OSU is bad but Huskies are a bad road team.
3:30 PM ET Tulane at Rice  #92 #90 Rice
3:30 PM ET Florida Atlantic at Troy  #115 #79 Troy Troy sucks!  Total underachieve in 2011.  Few teams have such a big recruiting rank advantage as Troy.
4:00 PM ET Navy at San Jose State  #104 #103 SJSU Do I have to comment?  Ugghh
4:00 PM ET Boston College at Notre Dame #43 #11 Notre Dame Nice job scheduling easy OOC games BC AD
4:05 PM ET Louisiana Tech at Nevada  #85 #107 La Tech Nevada, again is overcoached with no talent
5:00 PM ET Utah State at Idaho  #108  #110 Idaho Another close yucky game
5:00 PM ET Utah at Washington State #58 #53 Wazzu Want to keep your job Wulff?  Win this weekend as expected
5:00 PM ET Florida International at Louisiana-Monroe  #87 #119 FIU
6:00 PM ET UNLV at Air Force  #91 #93 Air Force
7:00 PM ET No. 1 LSU at Ole Miss  #4  #34  LSU It is funny listening to Les Miles try and talk seriously about facing a tough opponent this week.  Maybe he thought they lost to Va Tech last week not La Tech
7:00 PM ET UCF at East Carolina  $54  #84  UCF
7:00 PM ET Western Kentucky at North Texas  #98  #105  Western K
7:00 PM ET Vanderbilt at Tennessee  #63  #13  Tennessee Lose and it is the huckleberry for Dooley.  Going to be hard to keep him as is with that talent and this YTD result
7:30 PM ET Virginia at No. 25 Florida State  #57 #5 Florida State Battle of two teams in spots that were not expected to start the season.
7:30 PM ET Colorado at UCLA  #68 #15 UCLA Another huckleberry game.  Must win for CRN
8:00 PM ET USC at No. 4 Oregon  #3 #16 Oregon Oregon home field advantage is +16.  Top 3 home field numbers amongst tier I recruiters.
8:00 PM ET No. 5 Oklahoma at No. 22 Baylor  #9  #41  Oklahoma Should be over quick.  Trap game for the Sooners
8:00 PM ET No. 10 Boise State at San Diego State  #75  #81 Boise On the road after choking away yet another false NC run by winning one game.  Lets see if the emotion carries the day
8:00 PM ET No. 13 Kansas State at No. 23 Texas  #77  #3  Texas One of the best X/Os versus one of the worst.  Talent in Austin should win this 9 of 10 times.
9:30 PM ET Arizona at Arizona State  #53  #37  Arizona State Rumor of DE out very silly IMO.  ASU is exactly where they should be for schedule and recruiting rank.  Lose this though and ….
10:15 PM ET California at No. 9 Stanford  #27  #26  Stanford
10:15 PM ET New Mexico State at Brigham Young  #120  #60 BYU Never pick NMSU
11:00 PM ET Fresno State at Hawaii  #72  #76 Fresno The two worst coached teams in the WAC in 2011.  Can them both and restart.  Good thing someone has to win.
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