2011 – Week 13

Week 13 CFBMatrix Contest

Pick any Ten FBS Games listed below and tweet me @cfbmatrix , email Dave@cfbmatrix.com or log in the comments below your ten winners (name or games #s below).  To win you must (1) beat the CFBMatrix picks done in March for those ten games and (2) be #1 for total correct picks.  All entries that go 10 for 10 are automatic winners.  Please try to be fair in our honor system and enter just one time per week.  Week 13 winner gets a CFBMatrix t-shirt in their team colors with Week 13 Pick’em Champ on it (or something like that)


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Reminder! The CFBMatrix does not ‘remodel’ or adjust in during the season. One of the points of the model is to show that most games are decided in the schedule and recruiting (FARR). I do not expect to get every game right or even above 80%. I forecast all the games on March 1-31, 2011 for the entire season. I will post the expected results of all AQ schools games for each week based on the CFBMatrix for recruiting and home/away adjustments. I will put in possible upset alerts due to the additional coaching adjustment and which games are very difficult to model due to inconsistent play by either or both teams.

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11/21/2011 thru Week 12 CFBMatrix Update – Total – 490 wins 187 loses – 72%

  • ACC – 100 games & CFBMatrix went 63 – 37 ( 63%)
  • Big 12 – 68 games – 47 – 21 ( 69%) correct in the CFBMatrix
  • SEC – 95 games – 75 – 20 (79%)
  • PAC12 – 89 games – 69 – 21 (78%)
  • Big Ten – 91 games – 69 – 22 (76%)
  • Big East – 61 games – 47- 14 (77%)
  • Independent – 42 games – 31- 11 (75%)
  • Non-AQs – 358 games – 262 – 96 (73%)

BTW:  Top 25 teams have played 251 games through week 12 and 192 (77%) of those games were predicted correctly using only the CFBMatrix FARR (Field Adjusted Recruiting Rank).

Week 12 – Nov 14, 2011 – Nov 21, 2011 – Winners and Notes

#1 All AQ teams over every FCS team and every non-AQ team. All non-AQ teams with the best recruiting over other non-AQs and FBS schools plus a home field advantage adjustment. Here is exactly how week 13 modeled in March based solely off recruiting ranks and home/away scheduling (FARR – Field Adjusted Recruiting Rank). Potential upsets noted. “RR” is short for recruiting rank. The CFBMatrix has its own National team recruiting rank comprised of all available player information to reduce team and regional bias and create the most accurate team ranking available. We are in the process of adjusting past years for drop outs and dismissals to get better. But at 74% correct season to date using it and schedules… not to bad. Questions from Twitter and email:

Tuesday, November 22 Visitor CFBMatrix FARR Home CFBMatrix FARR Winner Notes
7:00 PM ET Miami (OH) at Ohio  #112 #96  Ohio Ohio building a large field adjustment in the first year of tracking non-AQs
Thursday, November 24
8:00 PM ET Texas at Texas A&M  #3  #17  Texas The two worst game coaches with the most talent in the Big12.  This should have been a game for a BCS bid or top 10 ranking.  Instead, no one cares but their fans.  Loser could/should lose his job?  Bad vs bad going to still with talent.
Friday, November 25
TBA Kent State at Temple  #113  #88  Temple Big FARR gap.  Temple to win this home or away
11:00 AM ET Eastern Michigan at Northern Illinois  #117 #91 NIU When is a higher program going to scoop up the NIU coach?
11:00 AM ET Louisville at South Florida  #45 #42  South Florida Holtz is par to subpar in coaching and a zero recruiter.  Home field adjustment just enough to take S. Florida between these tier II Big East schools.
12:00 PM ET  Houston at Tulsa  #62 #64 Houston Upset Alert.  Tulsa at home and well coached. 
12:00 PM ET Iowa at Nebraska  #42 #22 Nebraska Huskers have already blown their annual home upset as predicted in March. Two net negative game coaches on the year.
12:00 PM ET Bowling Green at Buffalo  #86 #108  Bowling Green BG should win this 9 of 10 but coaching has been weak in 2011
1:00 PM ET Akron at Western Michigan  #102 #95 Western  Michigan Field adjustment make s the difference in the pick for WM
2:00 PM ET Toledo at Ball State  #82 #113 Toledo Still funny that Indiana lost to Ball State.  Beginning of the end.
2:30 PM ET  Arkansas at  LSU  #25 #4 LSU LSU is one of the few teams that wipes out the home field calculations.  It is best to just go recruiting rank versus recruiting rank which favors LSU.  However, I would be more confident in this pre-season pick if it was at Arkansas.  Remember, Petrino is the biggest + game coach in the SEC
3:30 PM ET Colorado at Utah  #68 #38  Utah Utes building a big field/coach adjustment.  Should wipe CU but KW is very good.
3:30 PM ET Boston College at Miami (FL)  #43 #13 Miami Bad coaching vs bad coaching.  Still, Matrix takes home field with the better talent level.
7:00 PM ET Pittsburgh at West Virginia  #39 #22 West Virginia WVU wins to clinch Big East title
7:00 PM ET UTEP at UCF  #100 #54 UCF This shouldn’t be a game but UCF is playing like they are on the take from the same group as Hawaii.  Terrible coaching.
10:15 PM ET California at Arizona State  #42 #37 Arizona State Cal is coached way down on the road and ASU is flat everywhere.
Saturday, November 26
TBA Florida International at Middle Tennessee  #87 #84 Midd Tenn Wow.  Close FARR numbers.  Matrix has the home team, but new data for field and coaching on non-AQ should be interesting
12:00 PM ET  Georgia at Georgia Tech  #6 #47  Georgia UGA should have no issues with this game if they are who we thought they are.
12:00 PM ET  Michigan State at Northwestern  #31 #65 MSU No home magic for Northwestern.  Only dangerous on the road.
12:00 PM ET Ohio State at Michigan  #7/#28  #12  Michigan Home team in this match up will always be the Matrix favorite.
12:00 PM ET Rutgers at Connecticut  #29 #60 Rutgers UConn ok at home but Rutgers to good
12:00 PM ET Cincinnati at Syracuse  #50  #59  Cincinnati Home field adjustment for the Cuse not enough to beat the Bearcats
12:00 PM ET Rice at Southern Methodist  #90  #66 SMU Ponies should smoke Rice at home but JJ undercoaching 2011
12:21 PM ET Tennessee at Kentucky  #33  #45  Tennessee Two subpar coaches in 2011.  UT too big of FARR gap
12:30 PM ET Maryland at North Carolina State  #37 #34  NC State Two weak to awful coaches for 2011 clash.  Home team is always the pick
1:00 PM ET Troy at Western Kentucky  #94 #98  Troy Troy should easily win but are coached down to lower ability levels
2:00 PM ET Wyoming at Boise State  #97  #75  Boise
2:00 PM ET Nevada at Utah State  #107  #101  Utah State Nevada HC underrated but much better at home.  USU to win
3:30 PM ET  Alabama at Auburn  #1  #10  Alabama Always take Bama on the road.  Much tougher on the road under Saban.  This could be a very close game
3:30 PM ET Oregon State at Oregon  #48 #6  Oregon Shouldn’t be close
3:30 PM ET  Virginia Tech at Virginia  #28 #35 Virginia Tech Always take VaTech under Beemer on the road in the ACC until UNC, Miami and FSU coaching gets better
3:30 PM ET  Penn State at Wisconsin  #21  #49 Penn State Upset Alert.  Line has Wisconsin for the Matrix pre-season pick of the Lions would go against it.
3:30 PM ET Texas Tech vs.  Baylor*  #33  #41 Texas Tech Upset Alert -1 HC vs +1 HC.  If Tuberville finishes at -2 with a loss then IMO he is not the right guy and needs to go.
3:30 PM ET Purdue at Indiana  #54  #57  Purdue Indiana has no home field advantage.  Edge Boilermakers
3:30 PM ET Illinois at Minnesota  #40  #52  Illinois This is the type of game Illinois should dominate but Zook is well….Zook & staff
3:30 PM ET Duke at North Carolina  #67  #28  UNC UNC needs a new HC now! Now! NOW!
3:30 PM ET Vanderbilt at Wake Forest  #61  #57 Wake Two awesome X&Os HC coaches.  MAtrix went with home team
3:30 PM ET East Carolina at Marshall  #81  #70  Marshall Pirates just don’t have the fire power to win this one on the road
3:30 PM ET Missouri vs. Kansas*  #35  #51  Missouri This would be like playing no one in the SEC.  Easier game than any conference game in SEC for Mizzou
4:00 PM ET Memphis at Southern Miss  #78  #44  USM Landslide W
4:00 PM ET UAB at Florida Atlantic  #97  #95 Fla -Atl
4:00 PM ET New Mexico State at Louisiana Tech  #120  #85  La Tech
6:00 PM ET Air Force at Colorado State  #93 #83  CSU
7:00 PM ET  Florida State at Florida  #5  #8  Florida The Matrix always takes the home team in this game.  Clash of two under performers in a disappointing season.
7:00 PM ET Ole Miss at Mississippi State  #34  #25  Miss State As predicted in April, Egg Bowl for a bowl and 6 wins for one of these two.  Home time wins
7:30 PM ET Washington State at Washington  #52  #24  UDub UW is solid at home and WSU has one road upset in 4 years versus the Matrix
7:45 PM ET Clemson at  South Carolina  #23  #11  South Carolina USC should take care of this rivalry at home.  Will lose on the road next year
8:00 PM ET Iowa State at Oklahoma  #47  #9  Oklahoma ISU Rhoads was good coming into 2011 but OU should win this at home or on the road
8:00 PM ET Notre Dame at Stanford  #11  #26  Notre Dame Upset Alert Notre Dame has one loss in 3 years when Matrix picks a road win (terrible at home)
8:00 PM ET Louisiana-Lafayette at Arizona  #81 #53  Arizona  ULL great coaching this year but ALWAYS take AQ over non AQ.
8:00 PM ET San Jose State at Fresno State  #91  #64  Fresno Fresno to finish off this sorry ass season with a W.  #Failed
10:00 PM ET UCLA at USC  #35 #3  USC Trojans should roll UCLA, but Bruins could shock as they do have talent and USC could let down from Oregon
10:00 PM ET San Diego State at UNLV  #101 #81  SDSU Should be ab easy home W for SDSU
11:00 PM ET Tulane at Hawaii  #92 #58  Hawaii Is this game going to be played? Hawaii could have dominated the WAC if their head was on straight.  Clearly something wrong to announce point shaving investigation

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