2011 – Week 3

Reminder!  The CFBMatrix does not ‘remodel’ or adjust in during the season.  One of the points of the model is to show that most games are decided in the schedule and recruiting. I do not expect to get every game right or even above 80%.  I forecast all the games on March 1, 2011 for the entire season.

I will post the expected results of all AQ schools games for each week based on the CFBMatrix for recruiting and home/away adjustments.    I will put in possible upset alerts due to the additional coaching adjustment and which games are very difficult to model due to inconsistent play by either or both teams.

Season to date: 166 – 39 (80.98%)

Week 3, 2011 – Winners and Notes – Results 45-19 – 70.3%

Breakdown of Week 3 results
Total 45-19 70.3%
ACC  6-3   YTD: 31 games & CFBMatrix went 21-10 (67.7%)
SEC  6-4  YTD:31 games – 25-6 (80.6%)
PAC12 8-2  YTD:31 games – 27-4 (87.1%)
BIG TEN 11-1   YTD:37 games – 30-7 (81.1%)
BIG 12 8-2   YTD:25 games – 22-3 (88%) correct in the CFBMatrix
Big East 4-3   YTD:21 games – 17-4 (80.9%)
Independents: 2-2   YTD:10 games – 5-5 (50.0%)
Non-AQ 27-12   YTD:107 games – 97-25 (78.8%)

#1 All AQ teams over every FCS team and every non-AQ team.  All non-AQ teams with the best recruiting over other non-AQs and FCS schools plus a home field advantage adjustment.

Here is exactly how week 3 modeled in March based solely off recruiting ranks and home/away scheduling.  Potential upsets noted.

  • LSU #4 over Mississippi State #30 – LSU is one of the best road teams in the Matrix.  Only 4 road upsets in 4 years and only one game versus a team with a 4 year recruiting rank worse than MSU.  MSU only one home upset (UGA) under Mullen.
  • Boise #72 over Toledo #82  – Home field not enough for CFBMatrix to take Toledo.  Could be close
  • UConn #80 over Iowa State #71  – Home field swings this game.  Neutral or at ISU Matrix would take ISU
  • Maryland #37 over WVU #29 – Two new HCs so no trends/metrics book on either.  Edsell overperformed at UConn.  But straight up recruiting edge goes to WVU, but home field adjustment tips it back to Maryland.  Matrix grid takes Terps in a real coin toss.
  • Auburn #10 over Clemson #23 – Too big of a recruiting gap for home field to overcome.  HC Swinney no home upsets to date.  That will change, maybe this weekend but odds stick with Tigers
  • Michigan #12 over E Michigan – 91% (ave winning % of AQ over non AQ teams)
  • Penn State#21 over Temple – 91%
  • Bowling Green over Wyoming – BW out recruited WY over the last 4 years.
  • Purdue #59 over SMS – 91%
  • Central MI #86 over Western MI #101 – CM out recruits WM by too big of a gap.  Central to win
  • #20 Ole Miss over #61Vanderbilt – 4 year recruiting not even close.  Ole Miss to win home or the road.
  • #45 Georgia Tech over #51 Kansas – Home field advantage pushes Matrix into Georgia Tech winning
  • #68 Colorado over #83 Colorado State –  Only game the Matrix took CU to win
  • #70 TCU over LMU – 92% (FBS over FCS win percentage)
  • #43 BC over #64 Duke – If BC loses this one, it will mark the first time ever a team went -3 to start a season versus the Matrix model
  • #5 Georgia over Coast Carolina – 91%
  • #36 Wisconsin over #111 N Illinois – 91%
  • #22 Nebraska over  #24 Washington – Home field decides this game but… Pelini is weakest at home.  UW not a good road team though.   UPSET ALERT
  • #16 Oregon over Missouri State – 92%
  • #11 Notre Dame over #21 Michigan State
  • #8 Florida over #13 Tennessee
  • #3 Texas over #15 UCLA
  • #63 Indiana over SC State – 91%
  • #52 Minnesota over #112 Miami (OH) – 91%
  • #18 North Carolina over #57 Virginia
  • Texas Tech over New Mexico
  • Northwestern over Army
  • Cincinnati over Akron
  • VA Tech over Ark State
  • UAB over Tulane
  • San Jose State over Nevada
  • Cal over Presbyterian
  • S Carolina over Navy
  • NC State over S Alabama
  • UCF over FIU
  • Washington State over San Diego State
  • Wake over G-W
  • Texas A&M over Idaho
  • Baylor over SFA
  • South Florida over Florida A&M
  • Illinois over Arizona State (Zook worst game effect in Big Ten.  ASU could easily win)
  • Kentucky over Louisville
  • W. Kentucky over Indiana State
  • Missouri over W. Illinois
  • Marshall over Ohio
  • Memphis over Austin Peay
  • Louisiana Lafayette over Nicholls State
  • Ball State over Buffalo
  • Kansas State over Kent State
  • Houston over LA Tech
  • Southern Miss over SE LA
  • Alabama over N. Texas
  • Arkansas over Troy
  • Miami (FL) over Ohio State
  • Florida State over Oklahoma
  • USC over Syracuse
  • UTEP over New Mexico St
  • SMU over NW State
  • BYU over Utah
  • Oklahoma State over Tulsa
  • Fresno State over N. Dakota
  • Hawaii over UNLV
  • Stanford over Arizona

Week 1 Sept. 1 – Sept 6, 2011  – Total – 67 wins 9 loses

Week 2 – Sept 7 – Sept 12, 2011 – Total – 54 wins 11 loses 

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