2011 – Week 4

Reminder!  The CFBMatrix does not ‘remodel’ or adjust in during the season.  One of the points of the model is to show that most games are decided in the schedule and recruiting. I do not expect to get every game right or even above 80%.  I forecast all the games on March 1, 2011 for the entire season.

I will post the expected results of all AQ schools games for each week based on the CFBMatrix for recruiting and home/away adjustments.    I will put in possible upset alerts due to the additional coaching adjustment and which games are very difficult to model due to inconsistent play by either or both teams.

Season to date: 168-39 (81.1%)… after Week 4 215-52 (80.5%)

Week 4 – Sept 19 – Sept 24, 2011 – Winners and Notes

#1 All AQ teams over every FCS team and every non-AQ team.  All non-AQ teams with the best recruiting over other non-AQs and FCS schools plus a home field advantage adjustment.

9/26/2011 – Review of results.  It was a mixed bag for Week 4 and the CFBMatrix.  The final tally showed a 47-13 records for the week.  Just over 80%, so not bad for the picks made in March, 2011.  The ACC was a huge coaching failure.  They became the first conference this year to post a sub .500 record in the model.  It knocked them down to 24-19 on the year, with most of the missing being upset loses.  The rest of the conferences were good to perfect.  100% correct on SEC games, 4-1 in the PAC12, 8-2 in the Big Ten, 6-1 in the Big East and a surprising 18-3 in the non AQ head to head match ups.

Here is exactly how week 4 modeled in March based solely off recruiting ranks and home/away scheduling.  Potential upsets noted.

ACC

  • L NC State over Cincinnati – NCState at #36 CFBMatrix recruiting rank is easily over #50 Cincy.  The issue is NC State coaching.  Very inconsistent but Cincinnati is not a big upset win team under the current HC.  NC State should win, but could be a potential upset.
  • L North Carolina over Georgia Tech – Another Upset potential with new HC at UNC and HC Johnson is tough to beat at home.  UNC still has an overwhelming talent advantage
  • L Miami over Kansas State – The Canes should win this game 9 out of 10 times at any location.  Period.
  • L Maryland over Temple – AQ teams beat non-AQs 91% of the time…. Terps automatic pick
  • W BC over UMass – AQ vs non-AQ automatic pick
  • W Virginia Tech over Marshall – Automatic AQ over non AQ and VA Tech is killer on the road.
  • L Virginia over Southern Mississippi – Cavaliers are good at home and out recruit Southern Miss.
  • W Duke over Tulane – Model takes AQ over non AQ but Duke doesn’t put teams away they should beat.  This is profile of a type of game Duke gives away under Cutcliffe.
  • L Florida State over Clemson -#8 ranked CFBMatrix recruiter vs #23.  Seminoles win at home or away

SEC

  • W LSU over West Virginia LSU is a killer on the road.  Best chance to beat them is in Death Valley.  But, the teams (4) they lost to on the road had a 4 year CFBMatrix recruiting Rank (RR) of #4-#27.  WVU is at #29.  Just saying…. but odds squarely in favor of the Tigers
  • W Georgia over Ole Miss –  Like it or not, Georgia has had its problems, but most are all in Athens.  Road upset loses are still tough to come by for the Bulldogs. 
  • W Alabama over Arkansas –  Bama has one home upset L in three years.  Petrino best road game coach in the SEC.   Edge to the better recruiter and home winning trend.  BAMA
  • W South Carolina over Vanderbilt – Gamecocks by far out recruit Vandy, even though Vandy is improving.  Too much SC for the Commodores. 
  • W Florida over Kentucky – Florida wins this 9 out of 10 at any field.
  • W Auburn over FL Atlantic – duhhh
  • W Miss State over LA Tech – again….duhh

PAC12

  • W Ohio State over Colorado – The Buffs got their one win for 2011 last week. OSU should have this over at half, but have been poor about putting teams away.   RR difference miles apart.
  • W UCLA over Oregon State – UCLA is the worst road team in the country.  This game is no more than 50/50 but UCLA should be rolling over the Beavs.  OSU one of the toughest at home and pulls a lot of upset Ws in Reser.
  • W Washington over Cal – Cal is terrible on the road.  UW solid at home with only 2 upsets loses out of 15 games under Coach Sark.
  • W Oregon over Arizona – Oregon is played tough by AU in Tucson and Stoops is good at the home upset, but U of O one of the best in the model (88%) over the last 4 years – Ducks  FWIW notes:  Arizona beat Oregon in Tucson 4 years ago.  Wildcats 4 YR CFBMatrix RR was #35 and the Ducks #20.  This weekend it is #53 vs #16.  That is a huge swing in talent.
  • L USC over Arizona State – Kiffin is the biggest net negative game effect coach in PAC12 to date.  If USC shows up coached well, they win, if not…. another coaching failure

BIG Ten

  • W Wisconsin over South Dakota – Duhhh…
  • W Michigan State over Central MI – Duhhh
  • W Michigan over San Diego State – It should not be close.  At the Big House with superior talent.  Michigan should win this 10 out of 10 in Ann Arbor.  Even a close game is an upset.
  • W Penn State over Eastern Michigan – Penn State rarely get s home upset L tagged on them and especially not from a non AQ school
  • W Iowa over ULM –  Again, duhhh….
  • W Ohio State over Colorado –The Buffs got their one win for 2011 last week. OSU should have this over at half, but have been poor about putting teams away.   RR difference miles apart.
  • W Illinois over Western Michigan –  Should be a no-brainer but Illinois still has the worst CFB game effect coach in the Big 10.  Still take Illinois to win
  • L Minnesota over ND State –  Another must/should win for the Gophers.  Can’t expect anything but a W over ND State
  • L Indiana over North Texas – Hoosiers have no business getting another bad loss.
  • W Nebraska over Wyoming – Duhhhh…

BIG 12

  • L Texas A&M over Oklahoma State – Watch out!  Sherman has the worst game coach effect in the BIG 12 and Gundy has the best road game effect in the Big 12.  UPSET ALERT!
  • L Miami over Kansas State – Miami should win easily at home
  • W Baylor over Rice –  Another W for Baylor in easy OOC play
  • W Texas Tech over Nevada – Tech should smoke the Wolfpack
  • W Oklahoma over Missouri – Oklahoma doesn’t lose at home to a team they out recruit. 

Big East

  • L NC State over Cincinnati – NCState at #36 CFBMatrix recruiting rank is easily over #50 Cincy.  The issue is NC State coaching.  Very inconsistent but Cincinnati is not a big upset win team under the current HC.  NC State should win, but could be a potential upset.
  • W LSU over West Virginia – LSU is a killer on the road.  Best chance to beat them is in Death Valley.  But, the teams (4) they lost to on the road had a 4 year CFBMatrix recruiting Rank (RR) of #4-#27.  WVU is at #29.  Just saying…. but odds squarely in favor of the Tigers
  • W Syracuse over Toledo Cuse just has to take care of low tier non AQ teams and get OOC wins.  Orangemen solid at home. 
  • W Notre Dame over Pittsburgh – Notre Dame should be too good to lose this one.  Totally out recruited Pitt over the last 4 years and HC Wannstadt ran the talent into the ground.  Kelly better on the road than home
  • W South Florida over UTEP – Should be an easy W for the Bulls.  Big recruiting gap.
  • W Connecticut over Buffalo – Worst recruiter in AQ teams vs the worst of the non-AQs… Instant Classic match up.
  • W Rutgers over Ohio – Automatic home vs non AQ pick. 

NON-AQ Head to Head

  • W BYU over UCF
  • W Akron over VMI
  • W SMU over Memphis
  • W TCU over Portland State
  • W Bowling Green over Miami (OH)
  • W Ball State over Army
  • W Air Force over Tenn State
  • W East Carolina over UAB
  • W N Illinois over Cal Poly
  • W San Jose State over New Mexico State
  • W Kent State over S Alabama
  • W Troy over Mid Tennessee
  • L FIU over LA Lafayette
  • W Fresno State over Idaho
  • L New Mexico over SHS
  • W Houston over GA State
  • W Colorado State over Utah State
  • W Arkansas State over Central Arkansas
  • L UNLV over Southern Utah
  • W Boise State over Tulsa
  • W Hawaii over UC Davis

Week 1 Sept. 1 – Sept 6, 2011  – Total – 67 wins 9 loses

Week 2 – Sept 7 – Sept 12, 2011 – Total – 54 wins 11 loses

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s