2011 – Week 5

Reminder!  The CFBMatrix does not ‘remodel’ or adjust in during the season.  One of the points of the model is to show that most games are decided in the schedule and recruiting. I do not expect to get every game right or even above 80%.  I forecast all the games on March 1, 2011 for the entire season. I will post the expected results of all AQ schools games for each week based on the CFBMatrix for recruiting and home/away adjustments.    I will put in possible upset alerts due to the additional coaching adjustment and which games are very difficult to model due to inconsistent play by either or both teams.

Season to date:  after Week 4 215-52 (80.5%)

Week 5 – Sept 29  – Oct 1, 2011 – Winners and Notes

#1 All AQ teams over every FCS team and every non-AQ team.  All non-AQ teams with the best recruiting over other non-AQs and FCS schools plus a home field advantage adjustment. Here is exactly how week 5  modeled in March based solely off recruiting ranks and home/away scheduling.  Potential upsets noted. RR is short for recruiting rank.  The CFBMatrix has its own National team recruiting rank comprised of all available player information to reduce team and regional bias and create the most accurate team ranking available.  We are in the process of adjusting past years for drop outs and dismissals to get better.  But at 81% correct season to date using it and schedules… not to bad. Questions from Twitter and email:

UW @ Utah  @bnnace  @cfbmatrix so you think UW might be a good play this week for a straight up win? Here is how I read the profiles for each team going into the game. The Guide on Utah has limited info on the Utes as this is their first year in the PAc12.  With no real PAC12 coaching profile, this team is an Avoid for 2011 to reduce risk.  They are 7-4 under Whittingham versus AQ schools in the regular season, but without a full contact AQ schedule.  That is much better than the model would have predicted.  One the flip side, UW has out recruited Utah over the last 4 years and that, straight up, is going to win 74% of the time.  The down side is HC Sark on the road.  While very solid at home, this is his problem.  He is not winning the game on the road he is supposed to win.  He has been on the road 6x as the Matrix favorite.  He lost 5 of them and is 3-9 on the road overall (though none to a team with Utah’s low RR).  While the Matrix says take the team with the best recruiting – home field power adjustment, it is a risky play at best.
Thursday, September 29 Visitor CFBMatrix RR* Home CFBMatrix RR* Winner Notes
8:00 PM ET No. 16 South Florida at Pittsburgh #47 #38 W-Pittsburgh Pitt Home Dog – Best Bets taking the points
8:00 PM ET Houston at UTEP  #62 #100 W-Houston Huge RR gap… no brainer
Friday, September 30
TIME (ET) MATCHUP
8:00 PM ET Utah State at Brigham Young  #108  #61 W – BYU
Saturday, October 1
TIME (ET) MATCHUP
12:00 PM ET No. 14 Texas A&M vs. No. 18 Arkansas @ Texas Stadium, Arlington, TX #17 #25 Arkansas  Tough match up!  Especially since it is neutral.  Matrix chart favored the home team in this one, but it is in Arlington.  I took a deeper look at the number in match ups for each coach when they faced another team within 10 RR positions.  Petrino is 5-3 and Sherman is 2-4 (not surprising).  Matrix going with the coaching effect as the difference.
12:00 PM ET Minnesota at No. 19 Michigan  #52  #12 Michigan  Its already over.  Even Jerry Kill took the red pill
12:00 PM ET Northwestern at No. 24 Illinois  #65  #40 Illinois  Upset Alert.  This one was circled in March when the picks were done. Zook is the worst game effect coach in the B10 and gives up the upsets.  Fitz is #1 in the country at pulling a road upset win.  Sticking with the best RR team at home, but you only have Zook to blame is they blow this one.
12:00 PM ET Mississippi State at Georgia  #25  #5 Georgia  If this was at MSU, it would be a near lock.  UGAs weakness is at home but still favored in the Matrix
12:00 PM ET Penn State at Indiana  #21  #63 Penn State  PSU solid  against this level of competition.  Good of a SU lock this week in the B10
12:00 PM ET Rutgers at Syracuse  #39  #69 Rutgers  This is a game profile Schiano would have lost in ’10.  Sticking to the Matrix charts of big RR gap in favor of Rutgers but holding my breath.
12:00 PM ET Toledo at Temple  82  88  Temple Home power variable put Temple ahead of #82 Toledo in the March modeling
12:00 PM ET Tulane at Army  92 99 Army Basically a coin toss.  Matrix sides with home field
12:00 PM ET Texas Tech at Kansas #33  #51 Texas Tech  Tech should roll.  Tuberville cannot afford to blow this one like a few upset loses in ’10
12:00 PM ET Air Force at Navy  #93  #104  Air Force  About a even as it gets with home field power adjustment.  Gap over 10 so AF given the edge for this week.
12:21 PM ET Kentucky at No. 1 LSU  #45  #4 LSU  It is already over…
12:30 PM ET Wake Forest at Boston College  #67 #43 BC  UPSET Alert BC has SUCKED this year and Wake under Grobe is always a threat.  Matrix said BC and I hate it…… as do I for most ACC teams this year.
12:30 PM ET Buffalo at Tennessee  #118 #13 Tennessee  Duhhh…… Only question is ‘Can season ticket holders sell all their games tickets or have to give them away?’
1:00 PM ET Cincinnati at Miami (OH)  #50  #112 Cincinnati  This should be a lock but Cincy getting -650 SU????  Smell a parlay there
1:00 PM ET Akron at Eastern Michigan #96  #117  Akron  E. Michigan one of the worst AQ recruiters in the country
2:00 PM ET Kent State at Ohio  #114  #106  Ohio  Yuck….  runner up to the NM/NMS game for just bad recruiting combo
2:30 PM ET Nevada at No. 4 Boise State  #107  #75 Boise State  Only team within double digits recruiting rank for BSU the rest of the way is TCU.  And only TCU has an easier schedule
3:30 PM ET Auburn at No. 10 South Carolina  #10  #19 South Carolina  Home field for USC turns this one.  Matrix picked SC in March due to home field over Auburn RR.  Spurrier has only one upset lose at home when picked to win by the Matrix for the last 3 years.  Solid trend
3:30 PM ET No. 15 Baylor at Kansas State  #41  #77 Baylor KState is tricky good at home.  Watch Out
3:30 PM ET Southern Methodist at No. 20 TCU  #66 #70 TCU  But not by much.  Upset Alert!
3:30 PM ET No. 21 Georgia Tech at North Carolina State  #46  #34 NC State You never know what you are going to get with State.  May cover and should win.
3:30 PM ET Bowling Green at No. 22 West Virginia  #95  #29 West Virginia  It is already over
3:30 PM ET Arizona at USC #53  #2 USC This is the lowly team profile USC beats 100% under Kiffin..See Q&A profile of W/L under Kiffin at Troy
3:30 PM ET Washington State at Colorado  #55  #68 Washington State  FUGGLY AQ game of the week.  Instant no-classic.  This road profile Wulff is 0-4 in his tenure and Colorado is flat weak.  I do’t care who wins, I just don’t want to watch it.
3:30 PM ET Western Michigan at Connecticut  #101  #80 UConn  The worst AQ recruiter vs non AQ.  UConn should still win at home
3:30 PM ET Marshall at Louisville  #73  #44 Louisville  Done
3:30 PM ET Towson at Maryland  #120**  #37 Maryland  Over
3:30 PM ET Michigan State at Ohio State  #31  #7 Ohio State  Big game.  Big RR gap.  New HC vs one of the best in the Big Ten.  Sticking with the talent, but emotions say who knows.
3:30 PM ET Idaho at Virginia  #110  #57 Virginia  UVA cannot afford another upset loss.  Especially at home
3:30 PM ET Northern Illinois at Central Michigan  #111  #86 Central MI  NIU favored in this game too. Matrix likes home team dog.  first ever non AQ play
3:30 PM ET Bethune-Cookman at Miami (FL)  #120**  #14 Miami  Already over
4:00 PM ET San Jose State at Colorado State  #103  #83 Colorado State
4:00 PM ET Arkansas State at Western Kentucky  #109  #98  W. Kentucky  Coin flip… adv home team?
6:00 PM ET No. 13 Clemson at No. 11 Virginia Tech  #23  #28 Virginia Tech  Home field swings this choice for Week 5.  At Clemson it goes the other way
7:00 PM ET Ball State at No. 2 Oklahoma  #113  #9 Oklahoma  OU has played no team it didnt out recruit during its home win streak…  enter another one
7:00 PM ET No. 17 Texas at Iowa State  #3  #71 Texas  Too much talent at Texas.  Expect it to be a blow out
7:00 PM ET North Texas at Tulsa  #105  #74  Tulsa  Expecting Tulsa to smoke them with those RR numbers
7:00 PM ET Washington at Utah  #24  #58 Washington  UW is 1-5 on the road when picked to win in the model.  No record on Utah so just having to go with RR to pick this one.
7:00 PM ET Florida Atlantic at Louisiana-Lafayette  #115  #116  LA Lafayette  Yuck…
7:00 PM ET Duke at Florida International  #64  #87  Duke  Duke has got to put away teh non AQ on the road.  if not all of cutcliffe’s effort for ’11 are shot
7:00 PM ET Hawaii at Louisiana Tech  #76  #85 LA Tech  Close as it gets.  Hawaii’s a bit more talented but long trip.  Big home field adv. to LA Tech
7:00 PM ET Memphis at Middle Tennessee  #78  #89 Middle Tenn
7:00 PM ET UAB at Troy  #97  #79 Troy  Troy needs to put this one away early
7:30 PM ET Rice at Southern Miss #90  #54 Southern Miss  Should be over at half with that RR gap
8:00 PM ET No. 3 Alabama at No. 12 Florida  #1  #8 Florida  Coin flip.  taking the home team, but Bama is a road killer.
8:00 PM ET No. 8 Nebraska at No. 7 Wisconsin  #22  #49 Nebraska  BIG RR Gap.  Pelini 9 of 10 on the road when picked to win by Matrix chart.  Beliema 2-2 when at home picked to lose.
8:00 PM ET North Carolina at East Carolina  #18  #84 UNC  With RR gap this should be over at half time.
8:00 PM ET New Mexico State at New Mexico  #120  #84  New Mexico  Home team favored in the model.  Otherwise just yuck!
8:00 PM ET Notre Dame at Purdue  #10  #59 Notre Dame Notre Dame stinks at home under Kelly but should take care of Purdue in the first half  with this big of a RR gap
9:15 PM ET Ole Miss at Fresno State  #20  #72 Ole Miss Ole Miss should take care of Fresno even on the road.
10:30 PM ET UCLA at No. 6 Stanford  #15  #26 Stanford That’s right #15.  UCLA is flat under coached and especially on the road.  5-12 on the road against teams they out recruit is the worst in the country the last 4 years.  Avoid UCLA to win on the road as long as Neuheisel is there.  But they are still very dangerous.
10:30 PM ET Oregon State at No. 25 Arizona State  #48  #36 Arizona State Beavs are tough on the road and ASU prone to bad loses under Erickson.  The CFBMatirx expects ASU to win, but there is no shock when Riley pulls a win on the road against average coaching.

*CFBMatrix RR is our recruiting ranking.  A national composite of all available recruiting information, we feel it it is the most comprehensive national team recruiting rank system available to football fans.  No one does more or provides more team RR information than the CFBMatrix

**Max ranking is #120

Week 1 Sept. 1 – Sept 6, 2011  – Total – 67 wins 9 loses

Week 2 – Sept 7 – Sept 12, 2011 – Total – 54 wins 11 loses

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