2011 – Week 6

Reminder!  The CFBMatrix does not ‘remodel’ or adjust in during the season.  One of the points of the model is to show that most games are decided in the schedule and recruiting. I do not expect to get every game right or even above 80%.  I forecast all the games on March 1, 2011 for the entire season. I will post the expected results of all AQ schools games for each week based on the CFBMatrix for recruiting and home/away adjustments.    I will put in possible upset alerts due to the additional coaching adjustment and which games are very difficult to model due to inconsistent play by either or both teams.

Season to date:  after Week 6 292-79 (78%)

Week 6 – Oct 6, 2011 – Oct 9, 2011 – Winners and Notes

Results Week 6 – AQ schools 27-6 within the model (81%) Big Week!

#1 All AQ teams over every FCS team and every non-AQ team.  All non-AQ teams with the best recruiting over other non-AQs and FCS schools plus a home field advantage adjustment. Here is exactly how week 6  modeled in March based solely off recruiting ranks and home/away scheduling.  Potential upsets noted. RR is short for recruiting rank.  The CFBMatrix has its own National team recruiting rank comprised of all available player information to reduce team and regional bias and create the most accurate team ranking available.  We are in the process of adjusting past years for drop outs and dismissals to get better.  But at 80% correct season to date using it and schedules… not to bad. Questions from Twitter and email:

JHopkins247  We could use some Cal analysis in the  thread on Duck Territory .

Cal @ Oregon – Lets start with a profile of Cal on the road in the PAC over the last 5 years under Coach Tedford.  Straight up, he is 8-13 in conference on the road.  In comparison, the CFBMatrix had predicted a 12-9 record.  In breaking down his ‘expected’ wins and loses, there is a pretty good pattern.  The CFBMatrix picked Cal to win 12 times on the road.  Clearly, Tedford had out recruited all these teams but his record in those games is 5-7.  The teams he beat had CFBMatrix 4 year recruiting ranks (RR) of & 82.  The loses the RR were 29, 32, 39, 44, 48, 49, 54.  When favored, he has not beat anyone with a rank better than #42 and is 4 and 1 versus conference teams above #50.  When expected to lose on the road within the RR modeling, the Bears are 3-7.  Beating teams ranked #19, #20 and #33 while losing to #1, #1, #17, #20, #24, #24, #30.  In a nutshell, Coach Tedford has a hard time motivating his team on the road and are 3-10 when playing a PAC12 team with a RR under #40 on the road.  The Ducks are #16   Under Coach Kelly, the Ducks are undefeated at home and since he arrived in Eugene in 2008 and the Ducks are 17-1 versus all PAC12 teams (at home or on the road) with a CFBMatrix RR of #20 or higher.  Cal has a #27 rank for 2011.    – Dave

Email:  Dave – I need a profile on the Wildcats.  Should be a W in Corvallis right?

It depends on how you want to look at the numbers.  The Beavers, in the last 4 years have been favored to win outright 7 times at home in-conference.  They are 5-2 in those games, but are on a two game losing streak.  The Wildcats come into Corvallis picked to lose due to their #53 RR in the CFBMatrix charts.  In conference play in the last 4 years they have been picked to lose 15 times and have won 6 of those games (40%).  There is no distinct RR pattern to their wins and loses as they are all across the board.  The only thing I can find is that 4 of the 5 wins were in Arizona or in Los Angeles (closer to home).  The 1 upset W on the road not near Tucson was in Corvallis.

loplx @cfbmatrix ND Air Force. Thanks.
Air Force @ Notre Dame – At #93 vs #11 it should be a lock for Notre Dame to win.  But ‘locks’ and Notre Dame home game under HC Kelly are not in parallel.  Having lost to both Navy and Tulsa it is really more of an oxymoronUnder Kelly, the Irish has blown 4 games at home to teams that they out recruit.  Nationally, the average is just over 1 in 4.  This would point to a Notre Dame win, as numbers tend to drift back to the norm of 75+%.  But Air Force has done nothing to persuade the CFBMatrix charts that they should be considered a potential upset alert.  In the last 3 years Air Force is +11 games against non-AQ schools.   But these schools are all lower than the worst AQ teams.  They played one top 40 recruiter, Oklahoma, and got beat.  I know it was close, but a W is a W.  They also played Utah and TCU 3x and were 0-6.  Can they win, sure, it’s why they play the games, but I can die from a cold too.
Thursday, October 6 MATCHUP Visitor CFBMatrix RR Home CFBMatrix RR Winner Notes
7:30 PM ET Western Kentucky at Middle Tennessee  Midd. Tenn
9:00 PM ET California at Oregon  #27  #16  Oregon  Cal is weak on the road having lost 7 of 10 in which the model picked them to lose.   Any UO loss at home is an upset at this point.  Ducks haven’t lost at home in conference since the Civil War in 2008
Friday, October 7
9:00 PM ET Boise State at Fresno State  #72  #52  Fresno St. Not so confident in getting a W here for the Matrix but it is what it is.
Saturday, October 8
TBA Iowa State at Baylor  #77   #41  Baylor Baylor is tough at home and rock solid pick in the Matrix.  Iowa State, as folks are now figuring out, is dangerous with Rhoades.
12:00 PM ET Oklahoma vs. Texas*  #9  #3  Oklahoma  Sweet Sweet Red River Rivalry –  Once again for the Big12 title and a possible BC S bowl berth.  Neutral field and #9 vs #3.  Too close to call.  Goign with the better coaching effect in Stoops
12:00 PM ET Maryland at Georgia Tech  #37  #46 Georgia Tech  This looked to be a very close game at the start of the year.  Maryland has underperformed to its talent this year and Georgia Tech is overperforming as expected
12:00 PM ET Connecticut at West Virginia  #80  #29  West Virginia  It already over
12:00 PM ET Mississippi State at UAB  #30  #97  Miss State  Done
12:00 PM ET Louisville at North Carolina  #44  #18  UNC Louisville is much tougher on the road than at home.  UNC playing to ability so far in ’11 and should win this game.
12:00 PM ET Minnesota at Purdue  #52  #59  Purdue Yuck…. Home field get the nod.
12:21 PM ET Kentucky at South Carolina  #45  #19  South Carolina USCe  too good at home against Kentucky’s RR profile
12:30 PM ET Florida State at Wake Forest  #5  #67  Florida State Wake’s Grobe is as tough as it gets, but #5 losing to #67.  Would not want to be in Fisher’s shoes if upset goes down
12:30 PM ET Memphis at Rice  #78  #90  Memphis Probably the only model picking Memphis.  Oh well.
1:00 PM ET Army at Miami (OH)  #99  #112  Army Close game
2:00 PM ET Florida International at Akron  #87  #96  Akron Closer game
2:00 PM ET Temple at Ball State  #88  #113  Temple Should be over quickly
2:00 PM ET Bowling Green at Western Michigan  #95  #101  W. Michigan Going w/ home field advantage in the Chart but personally feel BG wins.
2:30 PM ET Illinois at Indiana  #40  #63  Illinois Illinois is +1 on the year and Indiana -3 games.  Zook has been zero effect now for 1.5 seasons, but Wilson is just bad to this point.  No upset this week.
3:00 PM ET Boston College at Clemson  #43  #23  Clemson At the start of the season, I would have said this is a prime upset watch.  Spaz was doing well and Swinney off to a slow first year.  5 games later it is the leader for Coach of the Year versus the leader of Anti-coach of the year.
3:00 PM ET Eastern Michigan at Toledo  #117  #82  Toledo At home Toledo should roll
3:30 PM ET Florida at LSU  #8  #4  LSU LSU has both home field and better RR
3:30 PM ET Kansas at Oklahoma State  #51  #32  OK State Cowboys should win easy at home
3:30 PM ET Miami (FL) at Virginia Tech  #14  #28  Miami Interesting match up.  Hokies weaker at home than the road but Miami coming off bad lose at home.  Going to see if how well this March pick turns out.
3:30 PM ET Arizona State at Utah  #36  #58  Arizona State ASU should do the same thing the Huskies did last week. Win and win big.
3:30 PM ET Air Force at Notre Dame  #93  #11  Notre Dame Kelly has been bad at home so far. If this isn’t over at half, then he still has’t turned the corner at home.
3:30 PM ET Central Michigan at North Carolina State  #86  #34  NC State NC State has been horrid this year and should easily win.  Lose and its near and end for O’Brien
3:30 PM ET Pittsburgh at Rutgers  #38  #39  Rutgers Huge game!  No record on Pitt new head coach. Schiano has been a home favorite in the Matrix 24 times in the last 4 years.  He wins 67% (16-8) of those games.
3:30 PM ET Arizona at Oregon State  #53  #48  Oregon State See the profile above
3:30 PM ET Iowa at Penn State  #42  #21  Penn State Iowa has 3 road upset wins in 4 yrs vs the Matrix and Penn State has only 3 upset home loses.  No advantage.  RR wins – Penn State
3:30 PM ET Ohio at Buffalo  #106  #118  Ohio Coin toss.  Ohio better RR
3:30 PM ET Missouri at Kansas State  #35  #77  Missouri  Told ya KState was tough at home to start the year, but not back to back games?
3:30 PM ET Southern Miss at Navy  #54  #104  Southern Miss  Eagles should end this quick but Navy can be a pain.
3:30 PM ET Kent State at Northern Illinois  #114  #111  N. Illinois  Home field wins this
4:05 PM ET UNLV at Nevada  #91  #107  UNLV  Going with better recruiting, but not the better coach. Still crunching non-aq coaching numbers.
5:00 PM ET Louisiana Tech at Idaho  #85  #110  La Tech No reason to not win on the road
7:00 PM ET Vanderbilt at Alabama  #61  #1  Alabama  Its already over
7:00 PM ET Texas A&M at Texas Tech  #17  #33  Texas A&M  Sherman cant blow 3 straight can he?
7:00 PM ET Auburn at Arkansas  #10  #25  Auburn  Better RR overcomes home field for Arkansas
7:00 PM ET Michigan at Northwestern  #12  #65  Michigan Over
7:00 PM ET East Carolina at Houston  #84  #62  Houston  Cougs should win easy
7:00 PM ET Troy at Louisiana-Lafayette  #79  #116  Troy  Troy should roll
7:00 PM ET Marshall at UCF  #73  #56  UCF  UCF should win this 9 of 10
7:00 PM ET Arkansas State at Louisiana-Monroe  #109  #119 Arkansas State  Coin flip.  Goes to better RR
7:00 PM ET Georgia at Tennessee  #6  #13  Tennessee  Georgia is a team that more often that not throws out the home field advantage.  Sticking with Vols though
7:30 PM ET Colorado at Stanford  #68  #26  Stanford  Stanford should cruise at home
7:30 PM ET Florida Atlantic at North Texas  #115  #105  North Texas
8:00 PM ET Ohio State at Nebraska  #7  #22  Ohio State  Sticking with the March pick.  Whenever I go against the model I get burned
8:00 PM ET Wyoming at Utah State  #102  #108  Utah State
8:00 PM ET Syracuse at Tulane  #69  #92  Syracuse  Should win easily
10:15 PM ET San Jose State at Brigham Young  #103  #60  BYU  Over
10:30 PM ET TCU at San Diego State  #70  #81  TCU  Dang close.  TCU could easily go down on the road
10:30 PM ET Washington State at UCLA  #55  #15  UCLA  UCLA in conf as Matrix favorite 8-7. Wazzu as road matrix dog 1-12.  Nuf said
* – game played at a neutral location

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