2011 – Week 7

Reminder!  The CFBMatrix does not ‘remodel’ or adjust in during the season.  One of the points of the model is to show that most games are decided in the schedule and recruiting. I do not expect to get every game right or even above 80%.  I forecast all the games on March 1, 2011 for the entire season. I will post the expected results of all AQ schools games for each week based on the CFBMatrix for recruiting and home/away adjustments.    I will put in possible upset alerts due to the additional coaching adjustment and which games are very difficult to model due to inconsistent play by either or both teams.

Results Week 7 – AQ schools 21-8 within the model

Season to date:  All FBS teams after Week 7 292-98 (77%)

Best conference CFBMatrix March 2011 picks YTD – PAC12 at 45-7 (87%)


Week 7 – Oct 13, 2011 – Oct 16, 2011 – Winners and Notes

#1 All AQ teams over every FCS team and every non-AQ team.  All non-AQ teams with the best recruiting over other non-AQs and FCS schools plus a home field advantage adjustment. Here is exactly how week 6  modeled in March based solely off recruiting ranks and home/away scheduling.  Potential upsets noted. RR is short for recruiting rank.  The CFBMatrix has its own National team recruiting rank comprised of all available player information to reduce team and regional bias and create the most accurate team ranking available.  We are in the process of adjusting past years for drop outs and dismissals to get better.  But at 77% correct season to date using it and schedules… not to bad. Questions from Twitter and email:

Request from denverbros and Duckinthedesert to profile USC and Cal:  First off, these are two sub par coaches.  HC Kiffin is near the bottom in game effect in the conference and HC Tedford not too far behind in rank.  Cal is below average at home and they have no calculated home field advantage.  Two poor coaches makes predictions very hard.   The CBFMatrix favors USC because they are the #2 RR versus Cal at #27.  We know the Kiffin has struggled with teams that have a CFBMatrix recruiting rank better than #30.  He has lost all conference games but 1 (UCLA) at home and on the road when facing #30 or better RR.  BUT, Tedford, at home, has been picked to lose 6 times in conference play in the last 4 years.  He has lost 4 of them.  Nothing is lining up to make me feel good about either team.  Note: Cal, in the last 4 conference home games picked to lose have had total game points scored of 42, 28, 29 and 33 but USC on the road in conference when picked to win has been over 40 points total in every game.  AVOID plays

Thurs, Oct 13 MATCHUP Visitor CFBMatrix
Home CFBMatrix RR Winner Notes
8:00 PM ET San Diego State at Air Force #81 #93 San Diego St Looks to be a close game.  Tough road test for SDSU
9:00 PM ET USC at California #2 #27 USC Can USC and Kiffin break out of their losing streak to top #39 CFBMatrix RR teams?  Odds say no and this is a bad pick
Fri, Oct 14
9:00 PM ET Hawaii at San Jose State #76 #103 Hawaii Hawaii should cruise
Sat, Oct 15
12:00 PM ET Indiana at  Wisconsin #63 #49 Wisconsin Wisconsin will take care of this one at home
12:00 PM ET  Michigan at  Michigan State #12 #31 Michigan The Wolverines should win but it is on the road.  Biggest measuring stick of the year for both teams.
12:00 PM ET  South Carolina at Mississippi State #19 #30 South Carolina Setting up to be a very close game.  Home field may swing it to MSU but the Matrix did not take it in March
12:00 PM ET  Baylor at  Texas A&M #41 #17 Texas A&M Aggies should beat the Bears at home.  Baylor is not special for upset wins on the road or at home.
12:00 PM ET Toledo at Bowling Green #82 #95 Toledo Should be for a division title
12:00 PM ET Purdue at Penn State #59 #21 Penn State Lions should take care of this easily by half
12:00 PM ET Utah at Pittsburgh #58 #38 Pittsburgh Utes in middle of predicted big losing streak
12:00 PM ET Louisville at Cincinnati #44 #50 Cincinnati Home field advantage to Bearcats
12:30 PM ET Miami (FL) at North Carolina #14 #18 North Carolina Could move the Heels into the top 25
1:00 PM ET Buffalo at Temple #113 #88 Temple Owls should put this away at half
2:00 PM ET Iowa State at Missouri #71 #35 Missouri ISU is tough on the road but Pinkel cant be upset twice in two weeks can he?
2:00 PM ET Navy at Rutgers #104 #39 Rutgers Over
2:00 PM ET UNLV at Wyoming #91 #102 UNLV
3:00 PM ET Florida State at Duke #5 #64 Florida State Fisher could get fired if he blows this one too
3:00 PM ET Rice at Marshall #90 #73 Marshall
3:00 PM ET E. Michigan at C. Michigan #117 #86 Central MI
3:30 PM ET  LSU at Tennessee #4 #13 LSU LSU is a road killer.  Cannot go against them on the road
3:30 PM ET  Oklahoma State at  Texas #32 #3 Texas Matrix took Texas in March.  Cannot change.  Should be interesting.  No shock if ‘Horns cover and win.
3:30 PM ET  Georgia Tech at Virginia #46 #57 Georgia Tech Tech picked by a small margin.  No surprise if Virginia wins
3:30 PM ET Ohio State at  Illinois #7 #40 Ohio State Big game for both teams.
3:30 PM ET South Florida at Connecticut #46 #80 South Florida Without Edsall Uconn is back where their RR puts them.. The bottom of the Big East
3:30 PM ET Ball State at Ohio #113 #106 Ohio ????
3:30 PM ET Colorado at Washington #68 #24 Washington Colorado picked to lose out.  #68 vs #24 and UW at home.
3:30 PM ET Miami (OH) at Kent State #112 #114 Kent State Yuck! Fuggly game of the week
3:30 PM ET W. Michigan at Northern Illinois #101 #111 W. Michigan Coin flip
3:30 PM ET UCF at Southern Methodist #54 #70 UCF Lot of folks will look at this as a AQ type qualifier.
3:30 PM ET UTEP at Tulane #100 #92 Tulane
4:00 PM ET Brigham Young at Oregon State #60 #48 Oregon State Matrix predicted 3 game win streak for OSU in March.  This is game #2 of those 3 (then lose last 4)
4:00 PM ET W. Kentucky at Florida Atlantic #98 #115 W. Kentucky
4:05 PM ET New Mexico at Nevada #94 #101 Nevada
5:00 PM ET N. Texas at Louisiana-Lafayette #105 #116 LALafayette
6:00 PM ET  Alabama at Ole Miss #1 #20 Alabama Bama should cruise on the road
6:00 PM ET  Boise State at Colorado State #75 #83 Boise State
6:30 PM ET  Virginia Tech at Wake Forest #28 #67 Virginia Tech Wake is always dangerous with Grobe
7:00 PM ET  Clemson at Maryland #23 #37 Clemson Tough road game.   If Maryland shows up should be a good game but Clemson will win 78% of the time
7:00 PM ET  Kansas State at Texas Tech #77 #33 Texas Tech Tuberville cannot afford home upset Ls and needs to win this game
7:00 PM ET Florida at  Auburn #8 #10 Auburn Great on paper.  Taking the home team
7:00 PM ET East Carolina at Memphis #84 #78 Memphis The Tigers are just killing me.  I hate the Matrix making this pick when their coaching has been so bad.  They deserve better, unless you hate Memphis.
7:00 PM ET Georgia at Vanderbilt #3 #58 Georgia Should be over quick
7:00 PM ET Northwestern at Iowa #65 #42 Iowa Nwestern a deadly road foe.  Ferentz subpar coaching at home.   Upset Alert!
7:00 PM ET Louisiana-Monroe at Troy #119 #79 Troy
7:30 PM ET  Stanford at Washington State #26 #55 Stanford Over.  WSU has no upset road wins against teams with a RR under #50.
8:00 PM ET Idaho at New Mexico State #110 #120 Idaho Super Fuggly!
8:00 PM ET UAB at Tulsa #97 #74 Tulsa
9:15 PM ET  Oklahoma at Kansas #9 #51 Oklahoma Already over
10:00 PM ET Utah State at Fresno State #108 #72 Fresno
10:15 PM ET  Arizona State at  Oregon #35 #16 Oregon Oregon has lost 1 of their last 18 conference games in which they out recruited their opponent.

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