2011 – Week 8

Reminder! The CFBMatrix does not ‘remodel’ or adjust in during the season. One of the points of the model is to show that most games are decided in the schedule and recruiting. I do not expect to get every game right or even above 80%. I forecast all the games on March 1, 2011 for the entire season. I will post the expected results of all AQ schools games for each week based on the CFBMatrix for recruiting and home/away adjustments. I will put in possible upset alerts due to the additional coaching adjustment and which games are very difficult to model due to inconsistent play by either or both teams.

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Week 8 – Oct 18, 2011 – Oct 21, 2011 – Winners and Notes

Results from Week 8

Overall 35-17
AQ teams were 21-9
Non-AQ teams were 14-8

Top 25 teams went 15-5 and are at 81% correct YTD using just schedules and Recruiting Ranks

ACC – 5-1 YTD 60%
SEC 5-0 YTD 83%
PAC12 4-2 YTD 83%
Big Ten 4-1 YTD 79%
Big12 1-3 YTD 77%
Big East 1-2 YTD 76%
Independants – 3-1 YTD 70%

#1 All AQ teams over every FCS team and every non-AQ team. All non-AQ teams with the best recruiting over other non-AQs and FCS schools plus a home field advantage adjustment. Here is exactly how week 6 modeled in March based solely off recruiting ranks and home/away scheduling. Potential upsets noted. RR is short for recruiting rank. The CFBMatrix has its own National team recruiting rank comprised of all available player information to reduce team and regional bias and create the most accurate team ranking available. We are in the process of adjusting past years for drop outs and dismissals to get better. But at 77% correct season to date using it and schedules… not to bad. Questions from Twitter and email:

Tuesday, October 18 MATCHUP Visitor CFBMatrix RR Home CFBMatrix RR Winner Notes
8:00 PM ET Florida Inter. at Arkansas St.  #87  #109  FIU Not liking this pick.  FIU underperforming and ARk St over performing in 2011
Thursday, October 20
8:00 PM ET UCF at UAB  #54  #97 UCF Should be over quick
9:00 PM ET UCLA at Arizona  #15  #53 UCLA This is a really big game for UCLA to see if they are at all on track for winning games they are supposed to win (see OSU)
Friday, October 21
8:00 PM ET # 15 West Virginia at Syracuse  #29  #69  WVU Mountaineers should put this one away early.
8:00 PM ET Rutgers at Louisville  #39  #44 Louisville Home field edge to Louisville.  Secretly rooting for Rutgers since the model picked them #2 in BE and top 25 in Stassen contest.
Saturday, October 22
12:00 PM ET # 4 Oklahoma State at Missouri  #32  #35 Missouri Upset Alert. Missouri wins and loses exactly as picked 77% of the time in the last 5 years.
12:00 PM ET North Carolina at # 7 Clemson  #18  #23 Clemson Upset Alert.  Road team > RR than home team.  But Tigers are in a zone right now
12:00 PM ET # 11 Kansas State at Kansas  #77  #51 Kansas Would be nice to get a KState game right sometime this year 🙂
12:00 PM ET # 23 Illinois at Purdue  #40  #59 Illinois This is the type of game Zook lost in the first 3 yrs.  Has blown only 1 in the last 1.5 seasons.
12:00 PM ET Cincinnati at South Florida  #50  #47 South Florida Close game with home field favoring USF.
12:00 PM ET Jacksonville State at Kentucky  None  #45 Kentucky Phillips needs to have the Wildcats ready to end this FAST
12:00 PM ET Northern Illinois at Buffalo  #111  #118 Buffalo
12:00 PM ET Indiana at Iowa  #63  #42 Iowa Should be over early
12:21 PM ET # 9 Arkansas at Ole Miss  #25  #34 Arkansas Adjusted should be #25 at #34 but sticking with March picks.  2012 time for better RR model.
12:30 PM ET Wake Forest at Duke  #67  #64 Duke Wake under Grobe is so good getting upset Ws.  But he is 5-13 on the road when favored to lose.  Duke is 0-1 at home in conf when favored to win under DC.
1:00 PM ET W. Michigan at E. Michigan  #101  #117 Western MI
2:00 PM ET Central Michigan at Ball State  #86  #113 Central MI
2:00 PM ET New Mexico at TCU  #94  #70 TCU Over
3:00 PM ET Boston College at Virginia Tech  #43  #28 Virginia Tech It’s all downhill for Spaz and the Eagles.  They blew the easy early schedule.
3:00 PM ET Idaho State at Brigham Young  None  #60 BYU  Should be done early.
3:00 PM ET Louisiana Tech at Utah State  #85  #108  LA Tech
3:30 PM ET # 20 Auburn at # 1 LSU  #10  #4 LSU  LSU at home to win.  LSU one of 4 SEC team have home field thrown out.
3:30 PM ET Air Force at # 5 Boise State  #93  #75 Boise State  Over
3:30 PM ET # 10 Oregon at Colorado  #16  #68 Oregon  Over
3:30 PM ET # 13 Nebraska at Minnesota  #22  #52 Nebraska Duhhhhh
3:30 PM ET # 17 Texas A&M at Iowa State  #17  #71 Texas A&M Sherman cannot afford any more bad losses the rest of the year as he is already -2 games.
3:30 PM ET # 22 Georgia Tech at Miami (FL)  #47  #14 Miami Would not have guessed this in March but Golden really needs this game!
3:30 PM ET Maryland at Florida State  #37  #5 Florida State Fisher cannot afford
3:30 PM ET Temple at Bowling Green  #88  #95 Bowling Green
3:30 PM ET North Carolina State at Virginia  #34  #57 NC State Just like Golden and Fisher, O’Brien is going to be toast if he keeps losing these games.
3:30 PM ET Ohio at Akron  #106  #96  Akron
3:30 PM ET East Carolina at Navy  #84  #104  East Carolina
3:30 PM ET Memphis at Tulane  #78  #92  Memphis Should be ugly no matter what the outcome
4:00 PM ET LA-Lafayette at W. Kentucky  #116  #98  W. Kentucky
4:05 PM ET Fresno State at Nevada  #72  #107  Fresno State
4:30 PM ET Marshall at # 19 Houston #73  #62 Houston Cougs get another W at home.
7:00 PM ET #21 Penn State at Northwestern #21  #65 Penn State Would be more concerned if NW was on the road.  PSU should win here.
7:00 PM ET Utah at California  #58  #27 Cal
7:00 PM ET Army at Vanderbilt #99  #61 Vanderbilt Vandy should cruise at home
7:00 PM ET Tulsa at Rice  #74  #90 Tulsa
7:00 PM ET Louisiana-Monroe at North Texas  #119  #105  North Texas
7:00 PM ET Miami (OH) at Toledo  #112  #82  Toledo Rockets should end it quickly
7:15 PM ET Tennessee at # 2 Alabama #13 #1 Alabama Could be much closer than folks predict
7:30 PM ET USC at Notre Dame #2 #11 Notre Dame Domers to win at home.
8:00 PM ET Texas Tech at # 3 Oklahoma  #33 #9 Oklahoma Any home L for the Sooners is an upset.  Period
8:00 PM ET #6 Wisconsin at#16  Michigan St. #47 #31 Michigan State Upset alert.  MSU is 7-2 at home in conf when picked to win by the CFBMatrix.   Wisconsin is 3-7 when picked to lose in the same time frame in conference.
8:00 PM ET Washington at Stanford #24 #26 Stanford Home field the difference.
8:00 PM ET Mid. Tennessee at Florida Atlantic  #89  #115 Middle TN
8:00 PM ET SMU at Southern Miss #70 #56 Southern Miss
8:00 PM ET Colorado State at UTEP #83  #100  Colorado State
10:30 PM ET Oregon St. at Washington St. #48 #55 Oregon State This game is at Qwest field in Seattle NOT in Pullman.  Wulff and Co. are 1-17 away from WSU.  Yes the 1 was in Corvallis last year but…
Sunday, October 23
12:00 AM ET New Mexico State at Hawaii  #120  #76 Hawaii
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