2011 – Week 9

Reminder! The CFBMatrix does not ‘remodel’ or adjust in during the season. One of the points of the model is to show that most games are decided in the schedule and recruiting. I do not expect to get every game right or even above 80%. I forecast all the games on March 1, 2011 for the entire season. I will post the expected results of all AQ schools games for each week based on the CFBMatrix for recruiting and home/away adjustments. I will put in possible upset alerts due to the additional coaching adjustment and which games are very difficult to model due to inconsistent play by either or both teams.

Week 9 – Oct 23, 2011 – Oct 28, 2011 – Winners and Notes

Overall 42-12
AQ Teams 24-8
non-AQ 18-4
Top 25 15-5
ACC  3-3
SEC  4-1
Big 12  3-2
Big Ten  5-1
PAC12  5-1

#1 All AQ teams over every FCS team and every non-AQ team. All non-AQ teams with the best recruiting over other non-AQs and FCS schools plus a home field advantage adjustment. Here is exactly how week 6 modeled in March based solely off recruiting ranks and home/away scheduling. Potential upsets noted. RR is short for recruiting rank. The CFBMatrix has its own National team recruiting rank comprised of all available player information to reduce team and regional bias and create the most accurate team ranking available. We are in the process of adjusting past years for drop outs and dismissals to get better. But at 76% correct season to date using it and schedules… not to bad. Questions from Twitter and email:

Visitor CFBMatrix RR Home CFBMatrix RR Winner Notes
Tuesday, October 25 MATCHUP
8:00 PM ET Troy at Florida International  #79  #87 Troy
Wednesday, October 26
8:00 PM ET Connecticut at Pittsburgh  #72  #38 Pitt
Thursday, October 27
8:00 PM ET Rice at Houston  #90  #62 Houston
8:00 PM ET Virginia at Miami (FL)  #57  #14 Miami
Friday, October 28
8:00 PM ET Brigham Young at TCU  #60  #70 TCU
Saturday, October 29
TBA Oklahoma at Kansas State  #13  #77 Oklahoma
TBA Baylor at Oklahoma State  #41  #32 OSU
TBA Clemson at Georgia Tech  #23  #47 Clemson
TBA Arkansas at Vanderbilt  #25  #66 Arkansas
TBA Washington State at Oregon  #53  #16 Oregon
TBA Virginia Tech at Duke  #28  #64 Virginia Tech
TBA Michigan State at Nebraska  #31  #22 Nebraska
TBA South Carolina at Tennessee  #19  #13 Tennessee Most fans call this an upset.  Model says Vols straight up to win.  No surprises here.
TBA West Virginia at Rutgers  #29  #39 West Virginia Watch out here!  As predicted to start the season, this game is for #1 and #2 in he Big East
TBA Ole Miss at Auburn  #34  #10 Auburn
TBA Illinois at Penn State  #40  #21 Penn State
TBA Kansas at Texas  #51  #3 Texas Just ugly.  Horns will roll Kansas at home
TBA Arizona at Washington  #53  #24 Washington  UW solid at home.  UA is just a wildcard with poor talent and a very good QB
TBA Colorado at Arizona State  #68  #36 Arizona State Everybody is favored over Colorado the rest of the way.
TBA California at UCLA  #27  #15 UCLA Battle of bad coaching.  Tedford sucks on the road and Neuheisel just sucks. How about loser gets canned?
TBA North Carolina St. at Florida State  #34  #5 Florida St FSU should put away NCState in battle of two of the worst coaches in 2011.
TBA Mississippi State at Kentucky  #30  #45 Miss State
TBA Syracuse at Louisville  #69 #44 Louisville Louisville needs n expected home win BAD!
TBA Boston College at Maryland  #43  #37 Maryland
TBA Iowa at Minnesota  #42  #52 Iowa Could be closer than most think.  Even though to this point Minnesota has been terrible
TBA Tulane at East Carolina  #92 #84 East Carolina
TBA Wake Forest at North Carolina  #67  #18 UNC
TBA Oregon State at Utah  #48 #58 Utah
TBA North Texas at Arkansas State  #105 #109 Arkansas St
TBA Iowa State at Texas Tech  #71  #33 Texas Tech Look out!  Upset Alert.  TT coming off emotional win and ISU is dangerous on the road.  No surprise if ISU pulls it off.
12:00 PM ET Purdue at Michigan  #59 #12 Michigan
12:00 PM ET Northwestern at Indiana  #65  #63 Northwestern One of the few games that the model takes coaching effect on the road to win a close one.
12:00 PM ET UAB at Marshall  #97 #73 Marshall
12:00 PM ET Central Michigan at Akron  #86 #96 Central Michigan
1:00 PM ET Bowling Green at Kent State  #95 #114 Bowling Green
2:00 PM ET Air Force at New Mexico  #93 #94 Air Force  New Mexico has Zero home field advantage
2:00 PM ET Ball State at Western Michigan  #113 #101 W. Michigan Fuggly… nothing else
3:30 PM ET Missouri at Texas A&M  #35  #19 Texas A&M Slightly above average coaching vs below average coaching.  At home Aggies have to win this!  Sherman is one more upset L away from not ever seeing the SEC conference.
3:30 PM ET Georgia vs. Florida*  #8 #6 Georgia Helluva neutral site match up.  Would love to go to this game someday.
3:30 PM ET Navy at Notre Dame  #104 #11 Notre Dame Lose this and Kelly is gone…. GONE  ND bad a home, but this should be easy
3:30 PM ET Buffalo at Miami (OH)  #118 #112  Miami (OH) Fugglier…
3:30 PM ET Southern Methodist at Tulsa  #70 #74 Tulsa Not sure I personally agree with this one but…..
M ET Fordham at Army  NA #99 Army Just when you couldn’t get a worse game mid-season you get this crap
3:30 PM ET W. Kentucky at Louisiana-Monroe  #98 #119 W. Kentucky
4:00 PM ET Memphis at UCF  #78 #56 UCF
4:00 PM ET San Jose State at Louisiana Tech  #103 #85 LA Tech
5:00 PM ET Hawaii at Idaho  #76 #110 Hawaii
6:00 PM ET Colorado State at UNLV  #83 #94 CSU
7:30 PM ET Louisiana-Lafayette at Middle TN  #116 #89 Mid Tennessee
8:00 PM ET Wisconsin at Ohio State  #47 #7 Ohio State It got MSU correct over Wisconsin last week.  Give it back this week?
8:00 PM ET Stanford at USC  #48  #2 USC
8:00 PM ET Nevada at New Mexico State  #107 #120 Nevada
8:00 PM ET Southern Miss at UTEP  #100 #54 Southern Miss
10:00 PM ET Wyoming at San Diego State  #102 #81 SDSU
* – game played at a neutral location

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