2011 – Week 14

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Reminder! The CFBMatrix does not ‘remodel’ or adjust in during the season. One of the points of the model is to show that most games are decided in the schedule and recruiting (FARR). I do not expect to get every game right or even above 80%. I forecast all the games on March 1-31, 2011 for the entire season. I will post the expected results of all AQ schools games for each week based on the CFBMatrix for recruiting and home/away adjustments. I will put in possible upset alerts due to the additional coaching adjustment and which games are very difficult to model due to inconsistent play by either or both teams.

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12/1/2011 thru Week 14 CFBMatrix Update – Total – 501 wins 192 loses – 72%

  • ACC – 100 games & CFBMatrix went 63 – 37 ( 63%)
  • Big 12 – 71 games – 47 – 24 ( 66%) correct in the CFBMatrix
  • SEC – 95 games – 75 – 20 (79%)
  • PAC12 – 89 games – 69 – 21 (78%)
  • Big Ten – 91 games – 69 – 22 (76%)
  • Big East – 64 games – 50 – 14 (78%)
  • Independent – 42 games – 31- 11 (75%)
  • Non-AQs – 367 games – 269 – 98 (73%)

BTW:  Top 25 teams have played 280 games through week 14 and 214 (76.4%) of those games were predicted correctly using only the CFBMatrix FARR (Field Adjusted Recruiting Rank).

#1 All AQ teams over every FCS team and every non-AQ team. All non-AQ teams with the best recruiting over other non-AQs and FBS schools plus a home field advantage adjustment. Here is exactly how week 13 modeled in March based solely off recruiting ranks and home/away scheduling (FARR – Field Adjusted Recruiting Rank). Potential upsets noted. “RR” is short for recruiting rank. The CFBMatrix has its own National team recruiting rank comprised of all available player information to reduce team and regional bias and create the most accurate team ranking available. We are in the process of adjusting past years for drop outs and dismissals to get better. But at 73% correct season to date using it and schedules… not to bad. Questions from Twitter and email:

Thursday, December 1 Visitor CFBMatrix FARR Home CFBMatrix FARR Winner Notes
8:00 PM ET No. 23 West Virginia at South Florida  #39 #45  West Virginia  WVU in a close one to win the Big East.
Friday, December 2
7:00 PM ET Ohio vs. Northern Illinois*  #106 #111  Ohio
8:00 PM ET UCLA at No. 9 Oregon  #26 #6  Oregon
Saturday, December 3
12:00 PM ET No. 24 Southern Miss at No. 6 Houston  #54  #52   Houston  Cougs in a squeeker
12:00 PM ET Syracuse at Pittsburgh  #79  #39  Pitt
12:00 PM ET Connecticut at Cincinnati  #80  #40  Cincinnati
12:30 PM ET Iowa State at No. 11 Kansas State  #69  #67  K State Winning HC is the CFBMatrix COY
2:00 PM ET Wyoming at Colorado State  #102 #94  CSU CSU is garbage this year.  Need a new HC?
2:30 PM ET UNLV at No. 18 TCU  #101  #60  TCU Just shows SOS is worthless.  Win 10 games on a schedule that most AQ schools win 10-12 games and get ranked in the top 25
3:30 PM ET No. 22 Texas at No. 17 Baylor  #28  #31  Texas
3:30 PM ET Utah State at New Mexico State  #98  #110  USU Matrix rule of thumb.  Pick against NMSU every game
4:00 PM ET No. 14 Georgia vs. No. 1 LSU*  #6  #3  LSU One of the best road teams in the country the last 5 years
4:00 PM ET Louisiana-Monroe at Florida Atlantic  #109 #115  ULM
4:00 PM ET Middle Tennessee at North Texas  #89  #95  Midd Tenn
4:05 PM ET Idaho at Nevada  #110  #96  Nevada
4:30 PM ET Troy at Arkansas State #89  #99  Troy
6:00 PM ET New Mexico at No. 7 Boise State  #94  #75  Boise
7:30 PM ET Brigham Young at Hawaii  #60  #82  BYU Hawaii has no home field advantage variable the last 3 years which is uncommon.  BYU to win
8:00 PM ET No. 10 Oklahoma at No. 3 Oklahoma State  #9 #22  Sooners
8:00 PM ET No. 5 Virginia Tech vs. No. 20 Clemson*  #28 #23  Clemson
8:00 PM ET Fresno State at San Diego State  #82  #71  SDSU
8:17 PM ET No. 15 Wisconsin vs. No. 13 Michigan State*  #38 #31  Michigan State Matrix took them in regular season is March.  No changes ever during the season.  MSU again.
* – game played at a neutral location

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