Virginia Tech Hokies

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Virginia Tech Hokies 2011 Profile

The trend and metrics are starting to go against the Hokies.  Recruiting started trending down in 2009 and 2011 was one of the lowest points in the decade for pulling talent.  Virginia Tech has enjoyed an unprecedented downturn in coaching ability in the ACC from North Carolina, Florida State and Miami.  The head coaching dynamic has changed at all three in the last two years, so the future will be interesting for the Hokies if recruiting continues to erode.

While it is true that Coach Beemer and his staff are tough on the road, +5 game effect, they are near equally down at home, -3 games, over the last 4 years.  To get an upset, you are better off going to Blacksburg than hosting Virginia Tech.  Remember it is from within the CFBMatrix model that the ‘upset’ is defined.  VA Tech has lost 5 times at home to teams they out recruited versus just once on the road.  We see this pattern most often in elite or semi-elite teams like WVU that start to believe media hype about home field dominance.  LSU and “Death Valley” have very similar numbers under Coach Miles.

In ’08, ’09 and ’10 the staff was 0, -1 and 0 in coaching effect.  The modeling has clearly done well against the final total outcome of the seasons past.  This year the Hokies model out for 9 wins plus one game for home/away adjustment.  But as noted before, this team seems to fail at home much more than on the road.  In addition, with recruiting trending down, the replacement talent is in decline and the Hokies have one of the smallest groups of returning starters and lost their starting QB (approx -1 game).  If they play to the model’s expectations they win 10 game and go back to the ACC title game but beware the home upset to ruin it all.

Virginia Tech Recruiting Rank Links:

Most recent year , year over year recruiting improvement and 4 year moving averages of all 120 teams recruiting rankings based on CFBMatrix national composite rankings.

2011 Virginia Tech Roster/Depth Chart

Virginia Tech Schedule and SOS/EOS Breakdown

There is no reason to over analyze this schedule.  Starting with the OOC games, these are 4 cupcakes that should be taken out by halftime of every game.  On of the easiest OOC schedules in the country, any loss in the first 4 weeks by Virginia Tech is a major letdown, especially after last year after blowing their first two games.  If they lose one of the first four, expect it to be at home.

The conference schedule is very good for the Hokies.  In the past 4 years, Virginia Tech has lost just 1 game on the road to an ACC opponent that they out recruited.  In 2011 they play 4 road games in conference and all 4 they out recruited over the last 4 years.   4-0 period.

Now for most teams, having the tough home games are an advantage, but not so much for the Hokies.  They have given up 4 wins to teams they out recruited in the last 4 years.  Not a lot, but certainly a number that an elite team should avoid (Oklahoma hasn’t lost at home in 6 years to a team that they out recruited).  By the numbers, the biggest home threats should be Clemson, North Carolina and Miami but the pattern pointing to Boston College as the upset home game.

Links to other Hokies stats, trends, and articles

NFL/Recruiting Rank Ratios    Team Records – Odds Matrix    Returning Starters (All teams)

Virginia Tech Win/Recruiting Trend Chart

The recruiting trend lines are no heading the right direction for the Hokies.  The talent level is starting to fall to pre-2007 levels and they need a solid 2012 recruiting cycle to turn the talent north again.  Following the trends, this team looks to be set up for a 8-9 win season in 2011.

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