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Boston College Golden Eagles 2011 Profile
The hiring of Coach Spaziani is trending towards brilliance after 2 seasons. First, recruiting is trending up. This is a critical first step in getting to a competitive position in the ACC. Right now recruiting is in the mid-30s/40. Getting those changed to 20s/30s is going to be needed to get out of the lower half of the ACC and out of junk bowls.
Second, Spaziani has been nothing short of superb. He is +5 upset wins over 2 seasons and is the only coach to not lose on the road or at home to a team that BC has out recruited over the last 4 years. No other coach can say that over the last 2 years. With trends like that, the Eagles just need better talent and pray they don’t lose the coaching staff to another program.
For total wins in 2011 the model gave 5 wins straight up versus recruiting. This should be the bottom of wins expected. There is no home/away advantage in the games on the schedule in 2011. +2 games are added in for the coaching effect to get us to the 7 predicted wins in 2011.
Boston College Recruiting Rank Links:
Boston College Schedule and SOS/EOS Breakdown
2011 won’t be easy on the Eagles. #3 ranked total SOS in the conference with the #2 OOC SOS and #2 Big East SOS. The total EOS of just -4.3 suggests a balanced talent schedule with a .500 record for expectations. The Eagles has a total national SOS rank of #10 and #20 conference SOS.
The Eagles will most likely start 3-1. They play 3 teams that they out recruited from ’08-’11 and as noted before, they haven’t lost one of those games yet. Although they have the #2 OOC SOS in the conference, any loss in those 3 games not against Notre Dame are upsets in the model. The Irish will beat them.
So with a 3-1 record in the OOC games and 7 wins expected that puts us at 4-4 in the ACC. To do that, they will need to pull 2 upset wins and have no upset losses. That is tough, but it has happened the last 2 years. Duke and Wake should be beat by the Eagles. The best candidates to upset are Maryland and NC State. FSU, Miami and Clemson are modeled losses.