Florida State Seminoles 2011 CFBMatrix Profile
This is a BCS Title contender right now. Elite recruiting, an uptrend in winning games (see chart at the bottom of the page) and the new coach was not a net negative on the predicted outcome of 2010.
What is troubling the numbers for 2010 was the ability to give and get and upset in the model. I am not reading into it to much as it was Coach Fisher’s first year and they are figuring out how to win again. But that is the problem with being elite; there are few surprise wins and every loss hurts.
Recruiting is heading back up again, even though it never fell below the ‘elite line’ of #17 to be a BCS title contender. Anything outside of +/- 1 win from 11 total is a disappointing season and missed opportunity at something special for Noles fans.
Florida State Schedule Breakdown and Predictors
You can go analyze every publication to death on depth charts, recruiting, scheduling, etc. Let’s cut through all the ACC and Seminoles crap right now. 8-0. Period. Anything less in conference play is sub-par. The only real talent threat is Miami and they are going to Tallahassee with a new coach and trying to relearning elite winning as well. Outside of Miami, the other 7 conference games are all upsets if the Noles lose.
The real threat to 11 or 12 wins and a BCS title berth is the OOC games. Only one team, LSU (Oregon neutral site) can make the claim of the OOC being a serious roadblock to a NC title berth. And no team has two tougher OOC’s than Florida State. From a model perspective it is not likely that they win both the Oklahoma and Florida games but winning or losing neither or both is no upset. If forced to choose, the model would take the home team in both games.
Links to other Seminole stats, trends, and articles
Florida State Recruiting and Win Trend Chart
Write up pending
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