Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

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Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 2011 Profile

The two things I know at a glance at the GT profile is they have an over achieving coach with sub par talent.  A #46 4 year national recruiting ranking the ACC will get you 6-6 in a normal year with average coaching.

But Johnson is well above average.  He is the current #2 ACC coaching staff effect and averages +2 game per year in the last 3 years.  Recruiting, at #40 in 2011, was slightly above the 4 year average.  This indicates a better year is possible and likely in 2011 versus 2010.

Johnson and staff are much better on the road than at home.  They give up too many wins at home to lesser teams but more than make up for it on the road.  To be in the top 25 and a 9+ win team they will need to put together a special season both at home and on the road.

The CFBMatrix system is putting the Yellow Jackets in 3rd for the division with 4 conference wins and the most likely win total of 7 with 8 a very good possibility.  The coaching in the ACC has been down in recent years so the recent changes to other coaching staff in the ACC is good news for a 7+ wins in 2011 for Tech.

Georgia Tech Recruiting Rank Links:

Most recent year , year over year recruiting improvement and 4 year moving averages of all 120 teams recruiting rankings based on CFBMatrix national composite rankings.

2011 Georgia Tech Roster/Depth Chart

Georgia Tech Schedule and SOS/EOS Breakdown

Outside the annual game with Georgia, the Yellow Jackets have 3 easy wins.  Their OOC rank is #63 and it is the 7th easiest OOC in the ACC.  3-1 should be a lock for those 4 games.

The ACC conference schedule is tough.  #3 in the ACC and #21 in the country, Tech will have its work cut out for them in 2011.  They do have winnable games on the road and some tough ones at home.  For the coaching staff to get another +2 game effect season they are going to have to beat some teams again in 2011.  I don’t see them knocking off UGA but Miami, NC State and Maryland are 3 possible upsets with new or bad coaches already in place.

Their overall SOS is #24 in the country and #5 in the ACC.  Tough but balanced.  No real advantage in the schedule for Tech.  Projected at 6-6 with average coaching, we know that the total should be higher with Johnson and his crew.  7-5 should be expected, with a 8-4 season within eyesight.  Anything past that and season ticket holders should be overjoyed.  Until the recruiting picks up, anything over 8 wins and #2 in the division is a bonus.

Links to other Yellow Jackets stats, trends, and articles

NFL/Recruiting Rank Ratios    Team Records – Odds Matrix    Returning Starters (All teams)

Georgia Tech Win/Recruiting Trend Chart

The 2010-2011 recruiting cycles hurt Tech.  From 2006-2009 the Jackets were trending up solidly but the downturn is going to start hurting them in 2012 and 2013.  Recruiting need to pick up in 2012.  Years of classes in the 40s are not going to keep the fan base excited. There is a lot of opportunity in the ACC with the elite recruiters having bad coaches and down years.  Another bad recruiting class in 2012 is going to hurt Johnson and his staff hard in 2013.

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