Miami Hurricanes

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Miami Hurricanes 2011 Profile

Despite all the poor performances over the last few season by the Hurricanes, Coach Shannon did leave a lot of talent behind.  So often poor performance is voiced by saying the recruiting ranking for our team was over rated.  It is very hard to single out one team of 65 by 3 different ranking bureaus over 4 years.  Miami has had the talent, they just did not have the coach.

Their 4 year national recruiting rank is still at #14, and no team in the last 7 years has made the BCS title with less than a #18 composite and no worse than #3 recruiter in their conference.   It is time for Canes fans to expect a little more again.

It is Coach Golden’s first year and the national average for coaching effect for first year HCs is -1 game.  However, the team has 13 returning starters and its QB is returning.  Only 2 of the last 9 head coaches to inherit a 7 win team have been worse the following year.  I expect at least 8 wins from Miami in 2011

Miami Recruiting Rank Links:

Most recent year , year over year recruiting improvement and 4 year moving averages of all 120 teams recruiting rankings based on CFBMatrix national composite rankings.

2011 Miami Hurricanes Roster/Depth Chart

Miami Schedule and SOS/EOS Breakdown

This is a great schedule for the Hurricanes.  Golden is getting elite talent and speed and the schedule is just a masterpiece of luck and breaks.  A year ago it looked much worse but Ohio State and North Carolina both have new and very sudden head coaching changes.  Maryland changed coaches as well.

The OOC games are 3 easy wins.  No, I do not buy South Florida even being competitive and if they were outside the weak Big East, they would not get the attention they garner seemingly every year.  It is a classic trap between Florida State and a conference game but the only issue will be Ohio State.  It is in Miami and the model would favor the Hurricanes.  But with two new coaches and no metrics, I always fall back to the recruiting baseline.  OSU out recruited Miami over the last 4 years so the nod goes to the Buckeyes.

In conference play there are some poor breaks as the 4 most talented ACC teams Miami plays are all on the road.  The model expects Miami to go 2-2 on the road in conference play.  The Canes will be undefeated at home unless upset by a team that out coaches them.  I see no reason for them to lose an ACC game at home.

In looking at the numbers the division Championship will be decided in an 8 day span from October 8th through the 15th.  2 very hard road games that I expect them to split.  Win both and an ACC championship rematch with the Seminoles is in order.

Links to other Hurricanes stats, trends, and articles

NFL/Recruiting Rank Ratios    Team Records – Odds Matrix    Returning Starters (All teams)

Miami Win/Recruiting Trend Chart

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