BCS Title Contenders – Tier III

Tier III Teams – BCS Title Predictor 2011 Season

Tier III Teams – BCS Title Predictor 2011 Season

These are the teams with elite players at or above the level of Tier I and Tier II teams.  All have top 25 recruiting classes over the alst 4 years but have major flaws in the schedule or coaching to be higher Tier teams.  But do not let that fool you.  These teams could get hot and overcome many factors in the CFBMatrix model says should hold them back.

Florida Gators – New coach.  Period.  With Meyer, this should be a Tier I team expected to compete for a National Title.  Super talented but coming off a down year and now a new coach.   The coach comes from a program proven to miss on games they should win.  Recruiting still top 10 nationally but too many issues to expect a real run at the title.

Georgia Bulldogs – One of our Tier III residents every year.  Hugely talented and signficiantly undercoached.  One of the largest net negative coaching effects in the model.  It must be very hard being a Georgia football fan and watching equally talented SEC teams win conference and BCS titles.  Something is going to have to give in Athens.  Win big or expect a change.

Texas Longhorns – Lots of coaching turnover, a 2010 record that was totally unpredictable.   Talent is still elite in Austin, but too many issues to make this a 12 win team.  Nevertheless, 9-10 wins should be a minimum or there are other serious issues in the program.

Michigan Wolverines:  Before you throw your arms and cry BS, remember, the CFBMatrix modeling for the NC contenders is based on talent/recruiting levels only.   I break down the teams into the Tiers after the model sorts for talent.  Tier I are teams with elite talent and a history of good coaching.  Tier II have small issues in the model but good trends.  Tier IIIs usually having coaching issues.   The Wolverines have the talent.  Always have had it.  Even with Carr and Rodriguez.  I was disappointed to see Rich Rod dismissed as he strung together several years of top 20 classes and their winning trend was pointed up. The model expected a minimum of a 9-10 win season out of UM in 2011.  Well, they still have the talent but the coaching staff was redone.  Do I personally believe they can get a BCS title bid?  No way.  But the model shows they have the talent.  The key, absolute key in 2011 for Michigan, is to improve upon last years win total.    If they step back with this talent, there may have been a big mistake in not giving Rodriguez that 4th year.  Win 9-10 in 2011 plus another top 25 class and this is a Tier II or even Tier I teams in 2012.

Footnoted: USCSanctioned This is an elite talented team in 2011, but with poor coaching, lack of motivation and a dim future, we will never know how good they could have been in 2011.  Still would have been an outside shot due to the coaching, but one of 13 to match the last 8 winners and losers of the title game in recruiting metrics.  They cannot even qualify and won’t be in any Tier for at least 7 years and will be sub-.500 in 2 years.  The bottom will be around the end of the 2015 season.



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