Cincinnati Bearcats

CFBMatrix is the national leader in recruiting based stats, trends, rankings and predictability.  The FARR (field adjusted recruiting rank) was one of the most accurate predictor models for AQ schools in the country in 2011 (see stats on home page).

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Cincinnati Bearcats 2011 Profile

After having Kelly kill the Matrix for years, it was nice to see the return to Earth in 2010.  Predicted for 4 wins, that is what was produced by Coach Butch Jones.  While it may have been a painful fall for Bearcat fans, I see it as a good sign.  The former program is being washed away AND the new coach lived up to the Matrix expectations.  I know, “4 wins is terrible from 12 Dave.” However, in my experience in the historical trends from the Matrix, a bad coach tends to stay bad.  At a zero coach effect in the first year (average is -.91 games), it leads me to believe that 2011 will be a zero to +1 effect as well.

PLEASE see the recruiting chart at the bottom of the page!  Recruiting rank is rapidly trending up in no small part to the move to AQ status and solid strategy in the Jones staff.  This upward move is an immediate notice of 4 or more wins in 2011.  The huge has been massive and Cincy is one of the biggest recruiting rank movers in college football (link to article).

Cincinnati Recruiting Rank Links:

Most recent year , year over year recruiting improvement and 4 year moving averages of all 120 teams recruiting rankings based on CFBMatrix national composite rankings.

2011 Cincinnati Roster/Depth Chart

Cincinnati Schedule and SOS/EOS Breakdown

I will make no changes to my stance on the Big East.  It is the weakest conference by far and with 5 OOC games should get more teams into bowls than they have historically produced.  The issue, competitive balance.  Pitt has fallen so there is a huge log jam for #2 through #6 in recruited talent.  Cincinnati has the 4th toughest overall Big East schedule and the #3 toughest conference schedule.

This season will be a real crap shoot in the Big East with West Virginia the clear #1 (though a new HC will pull them down) and a race for second with Cincinnati, Louisville, Pitt, Rutgers and USF.  Injuries are likely to hurt at least one of these teams and weak coaching at USF and new coaching at Pitt will pull those two down.  I see the battle for the #2 slot in the Big East coming down to Louisville (home game), Rutgers (away) and Cincinnati.

Links to other Bearcats stats, trends, and articles

NFL/Recruiting Rank Ratios    Team Records – Odds Matrix    Returning Starters (All teams)

Cincinnati Win/Recruiting Trend Chart

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