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Louisville Cardinals 2011 Profile
When I look at the Cardinal profile, I see a lot of good things. Recruiting is way up with one of the best classes in year in the 2011 cycle. Recruiting is middle of the Big East pack and 2010 saw 6 regular season wins. However, those 6 were two short of project due to not being able to hold serve at home. -3 upset losses at home with no upset wins in the Big East. That is just bad. On the plus side, Strong was +1 on the road and he is going to need that kind of performance in 2011.
While he desires more rope, 2011 may be a turning point for the program and coach. Last year he was -2 games on a project 8 wins season. This year, using the same model, the road schedule hurts, the Cardinals are modeled for 6 wins. -2 again and that’s just 4 total wins and that will not do it.
Louisville Recruiting Rank Links:
Louisville Schedule and SOS/EOS Breakdown
The first pass of just comparing recruiting netted 8 wins for Louisville. But, when the away games are adjusted, the number drops to 7. They play 4 teams very close to themselves in talent with two on the road. Which may not be so bad and Coach Strong and his staff were terrible at home in 2010.
The OOC games are pretty easy to predict in the model. 3 wins versus teams that UL totally out recruited, a game with Kentucky that the model would favor UL at home and against a superior talented team but with a new coach in North Carolina. 3-2 is the minimum expectation in the first 5.
The conference schedule is tough as the Cardinals get 4 roadies and just 3 home games. Many will be very close games. Coaching is critical in the Big East with little talent separation. Syracuse and UConn are must wins as are all 3 home games. That is 6 wins and they need 1 more at least on the road. This will show win, coaching and overall program improvement. Any number of wins that is 6 and under is a bad season.