Big Ten Conference

2011 Big Ten Conference Records and Standings

Everything I read about the Big Ten standings is red.  Nebraska and Wisconsin appears to be the media and fan favorite heading into the 2011 season.  However, the CFBMatrix model is not buying what is being sold.

In the Legends division, Nebraska is the favorite of all, even the bookmakers which have the Cornhuskers at an astounding O/U at 10 games!  Over the last 3 years, Coach Pelini and his staff have pulled just 1 home and 1 road upset win, yet have been upset at home with 4 losses.  They need to have their greatest year of coaching under Pelini because their talent is not in the top 3 in the Big 10.  For a rate instance, the model is taking better coaching over better talent in Michigan State over Michigan and Nebraska for the Legends division title.  The other three teams will not be in contention as over the last 7 years 82% of division winners in the AQ football are in the top half of their 4 year recruiting rank.  Iowa will cause trouble, but Coach Ferentz and staff lose more upsets than wins them.  I don’t see this as a surprise year for Iowa and most likely will be in the 3rd-4th slot in the division.  Northwestern and Minnesota are still themselves and at the bottom.

In the Leaders division, the model is sticking with the talent.  The 2010 version of the Badgers, that was a once ever 4 years statistical anomaly, has passed.  They over performed their talent and caught some scheduling breaks.  I expect Wisconsin to go back to the Coach Bielema of old that was a zero to -1 game against the model each year.  4-4 in the Big Ten and 3rd to 4th in the division is the expectation. Illinois has the talent, but the worst game coaching effect has them dragging their feet.  They have the talent to be in the top 3 in either division but I don’t see a miracle from Zook and his staff.  This is their last year if they are not in the top 3 in the Leaders division.  Purdue and Indiana are still almost as good as a bye.

Ohio State is still the most talented team and had no external coach transition (smart move statistically in ’11).  The model is giving the tie breaker game to OSU hosting Penn State.  The Nittany Lions are the real dark horse in the Big Ten.  Coach Paterno has been very close every year to what he is modeled out for a final record.  If they beat Ohio State in Columbus, they will win the Leaders division and the conference championship to go to Pasadena.

Legends Winner – Michigan State

Leaders Winner – Ohio State

Conference Champ – Ohio State

Dark Horse for Conference Champ – Penn State

Big Ten Legends 2011 Predictor Conf. Record 2010 Conf Record Conf SOS Conf EOS 2011 Recruiting Rank Recruiting Rank Diff vs. 4 yr MA
Michigan State 6-2 7-1 34.00 3.00 29 2
Michigan 5-3 3-5 34.75 22.75 26 -14
Nebraska 4-4 6-2 29.88 7.88 18 4
Iowa 4-4 4-4 34.38 -7.63 28 14
Northwestern 3-5 3-5 30.38 18.00 58 7
Minnesota 0-8 2-6 35.00 -17.00 60 -8
Big Ten Leaders
Ohio State 6-2 7-1 32.13 25.13 7 0
Penn State 6-2 4-4 38.38 17.38 33 -12
Wisconsin 4-4 7-1 31.88 -31.13 39 10
Illinois 3-5 4-4 36.00 -4.00 36 4
Indiana 2-6 1-7 34.25 -28.75 61 2
Purdue 1-7 2-6 29.50 16.00 83 -24

Big 10 Team SOS and EOS Ranks

Big 10 Team Rosters/Depth Charts

Big 10- Net Game Effect Numbers and Rankings

BIG 10 Team Recruiting Rankings

  1. Rank by Overall Conference – 2011
  2. Rank by 4 Year Recruiting Rank Average
  3. Conference Breakdown by Team Recruiting Rank
  4. Year over Year (’10-’11) Conference Recruiting Rank Change

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2 Responses to Big Ten Conference

  1. Matt McAlexander says:

    These win loss figures don’t work. Conference wins and losses should both equal 48, this has wins equaling 44 and losses equaling 52. I guess there are 4 games this year in the Big 10 in which both teams are going to lose.

    • cfbmatrix says:

      Matt – Thanks for pointing it out. What the model tries to account for in OOC and conference games, is to put the ‘odds’ on likely outcomes. Minnesota is an example as they are modeled for 0-8 in the Big Ten. That is very rare and they are more likely to pick up an upset win somewhere in the season within the Big Ten. I adjusted Minnesota from 1-7 to 0-8 to reflect the model’s expectations without the win total odds to balance the numbers. Thanks for the feedback. Dave

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