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Iowa Hawkeyes 2011 Profile Review
The first thing I look at in team profiling is recruiting. The 2011 cycle was the second straight year of increasingly better classes which is a good sign for the upcoming years. However, this team is heading into the season as the #42 recruiting composite of the last 4 years but in the Big Ten, and that is the middle of the pack.
The surprising number for many Hawkeye fans may be the net negative game effect of Coach Ferentz of -4. This is largely the -4 games of 2007 with ’08-’10 producing a range of -1 to +2 games. His numbers are scattered but has been a net negative coach 3 of the last 4 years. So, the trends and metrics favor subtracting a win for the 2011 season due to coaching.
Links to other Hawkeye stats, trends, and articles
2011 Iowa Hawkeye Roster/Depth Chart – Pending
2011 Iowa Schedule and SOS/EOS Breakdown
The OOC schedule, like many in the Big Ten is 3 wins and a possible loss. Iowa State is bad and should be beat at either stadium. Pitt is coming to Iowa and with a new coach the Hawkeyes should start 4-0. But here is where the -1 game could kick in for Iowa. It is unlikely as Iowa has just one upset loss in OOC games over the last 4 years. If the ‘Hawks don’t start 4-0, it could snowball.
The Big Ten conference SOS for the Hawkeyes is ranked #8. Pretty easy compared to most but with an EOS of -7.6 this puts them in a conference win range of 3 to 5 games. I am taking 4 for many CFBMatrix metrics including the negative coach effect from Ferentz and the returning starters metrics as well.
Looking at the last 4 years the pattern for upsets, both Ws and Ls, is centered around Penn State and Northwestern. The bad news the Northwestern game is at home and Penn State on the road. Those two games are ones to point to defining the conference schedule.
Iowa Hawkeyes Win/Recruiting Trend Chart
6 wins is the bottom of the last decade having hit it 2 times but never below it. I fully expect the modeling to be correct in the forecast of 7 wins for 2011. With this chart, 6 appears to be a better number with 2012 the start of an uptrend trailing the 2 year rise in recruiting.
Take a look at the moving average recruiting rank line. It peaked in 2007 and two years later so did the win totals. Recruiting started diving in 2006 after the tremendous 2005 class and bottomed in 2009 and win totals may bottom out TWO YEARS later in 2011. Recruiting has been on a rise since 2009 and is one year away from fully reversing the moving average trend.