Michigan State Spartans

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Michigan State Spartans 2011 Profile

As a second-tier recruiter, Michigan State is very fortunate to have one of the top game coaching effect ratings in the country.  At +7 games, +3 at home and +4 on the road, D’Antonio is the #1 ranked game effect coach in the Big Ten and one of the top 10 the country.

Over the last 4 years, he and his staff have been +1 or more games 3 times.  The Spartans were modeled for 8 wins and add 1 game for the game coaching effect gives us the 9 wins expected for 2011.  Anything under 8 wins is a disappointing 2011 season in East Lansing.

Recruiting is slowly improving, but with a #31, 4 year average national ranking, their is a long way to go to get even close to elite status (#18 national rank).  Due to the coaching effect, the CFBMatrix model like the Spartans to win the division and lose the conference championship game.

Links to other Spartans stats, trends, and articles

NFL/Recruiting Rank Ratios

Team Records – Odds Matrix

Returning Starters (All teams)

2011 Spartans Roster/Depth Chart

2011 Michigan State Schedule and SOS/EOS Breakdown

I don’t see anything special in the Spartans schedule that show any particular break, good or bad, for the 2011 season.  Their Total schedule SOS in #6 in the conference and #49 nationally. With and EOS number in the teens, this is a 7-9 win team for their level of talent versus the scheduled talent.

The OOC games are simple.  Notre Dame and 3 wins.  Don’t try to give the Central Michigan is a tough in-state game.  Bull.  They should roll the Chippewas almost as easily as the other 2 gimmies.  They will lose at Notre Dame to start 3-1.

So, with the coaching staff at +1 game effect in 2011, where does the upset win come from on the schedule.  They have the 5th ranked conference SOS, so picking up wins may be above average in difficulty.  At OSU or Nebraska are the best bets for road upset wins.  Ohio State will be tougher as Nebraska is less consistent at home than the road.  They need to take of business at home by beating Wisconsin and/or Michigan to wrap up a 6-2 conference record.

Spartan Recruiting Rank Links:

Most recent year , year over year recruiting improvement and 4 year moving averages of all 120 teams recruiting rankings based on CFBMatrix national composite rankings.

Spartans Win/Recruiting Trend Chart

Since Coach Dantonio took over in 2007, recruiting has been trending up very well (see Michigan chart and mirror opposite trend).  Outside the down wins in 2009, the program is seeing very good trends.   It is still a long way away from the conference and national elite, but the numbers show a solid tier II Big Ten school.  The ’10 season was a touch of magic and good scheduling as the 11 wins was outside the trends.  If recruiting can be improved then this is a 5-7 conference win team every year.

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