Nebraska Cornhuskers

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Nebraska Cornhuskers 2011 Profile

Solid numbers within the model.   The CFBMatrix predictions for Nebraska was off +/- just one game each of the last two years.  For individual games it was correct on 72% of home games and 88% of road games.

Recruiting is starting to trend back up and game coaching effect, at -3 games over the last 3 years, is pretty good.  It is interesting to note that with that number, the most likely place an upset will occur is in Lincoln, not on the road.

However, these are all new stadiums and I have no idea how to factor in a conference switch.  This team is a favorite, with Michigan State and Michigan, of the CFBMatrix model to win their division.  The game at the Big House may define the ’11 season for both teams.

Recruiting does need to remain at a high and even higher level to really compete for a conference title and a BCS bowl berth.  Right now they simply do not have the talent level to be a annual threat to the conference championship game.

Links to other Nebraska stats, trends, and articles

NFL/Recruiting Rank Ratios  Team Records – Odds Matrix   Returning Starters (All teams)

2011 Nebraska Roster/Depth Chart – (July 11 Update)

2011 Nebraska Schedule and SOS/EOS Breakdown

Based on the success within the model of Pelini and his staff, the 2011 schedule appears to be very easy to break down for expectations.

First, with OCC games, this should be a 4-0 team.   The Huskies do have the talent to win in Lincoln, but their weakness is on the road.  3 wins is a disappointment only 2 OCC wins is a travisty.

In the Big Ten, it is hard to measure the impact of the conference switch as there is no real past history to provide likelihood of outcome.  We have established that Coach Pelini and his staff play their games on the road very close to the model’s pre-season expectations (16 of their last 18 road games were exactly as predicted).  That would put the Huskers 3-2 on the road in 2011.

The best chance and only chance for a home upset is against Ohio State as the model shows the rest should be won by the Huskers.  For a 9 or 10 win season to happen they must not be upset at home and under Pelini, that hasn’t happened yet.  The Huskers have the 2nd toughest conference SOS and a EOS of 12.4 also indicates a 4 to 5 win conference record in 2011.

This team is a contender for the division title and the winner of the division should be decided in the Cornhusker/Wolverine/Spartans games.  The most critical is holding their own by beating Michigan State at home.

Nebraska Win/Recruiting Trend Chart

Coach Pelini, since being hired in 2008, has brought a lot of consistency to the Cornhusker program in wins and recruiting.  In looking at the trend chart below, it is clear that the University and AD made a solid decision in removing the previous coaching staff.  This program had recruited itself into near ‘elite’ status, talentwise, but was underperforming on the field.

6 or fewer wins in the BIG 12 North (second weakest conf/div in AQ football) with their talent was a total failure.  The team peaked in 2008 with recruited talent, but that was Pelini’s first year.  He has built on the win total each year since the ’07 season and all trends in the chart are pointing up.  This is very good long term news for Nebraska fans.

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