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Ohio State Buckeyes 2011 Profile
There is very little to write about recruiting and coaching effect for a new coach. Ohio State, by the timing of the head coach removal, had no effect on the 2011 recruiting class. Talent and recruiting at Ohio State is and will remain very elite.
On average a new head coach reduces win totals by less than a full game. Even at -2 games, this is still an 8 win team and will contend strongly for the division and conference title. The biggest concern is the lack of returning starters, which is, on average, at least -1 more game versus the previous year.
Plus talent, minus new coach, minus returning starters and the model projects 10 wins with home/away adjustment puts the Buckeyes in a 8-10 win range of expectations.
Links to other Buckeye stats, trends, and articles
Ohio State Schedule and SOS/EOS Breakdown
The toughest total SOS and OCC SOS in the Big Ten does not help the Buckeyes season. They catch a break with Miami and their troubles, but it will help the Canes in the long run to weed out the problems now. Anything below a 3-1 start is just not cutting at any level. The talent is there to beat the other 3 teams not named Miami.
On the conference level, it is the 5th toughest schedule in the Big Ten. At Nebraska and at Michigan will be very tough games in which they will go 1-1. The big one, in my opinion of reading the model is Penn State. That winner takes the Leaders title and wins the conference championship to go to the Rose Bowl.