Wisconsin Badgers

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Wisconsin Badgers 2011 Profile

If winning and BCS games are supposed to help recruiting, why is Wisconsin stuck in the high 30s in national recruiting rank. I know after 2010, that Badgers fans feel the rankings are BS, but the Badgers in the 3 previous years had win totals within 1 game of their predicted value just comparing recruiting ranks.

In sticking with that trend, the Badgers are modeled for 7 wins, and we are moving the expected win total to 8 on a +.5 games coaching effect by the staff.

2010, in my opinion of reading the model was one of those ‘once every few years’ that a good staff with mid-level recruiting puts together.  2011 is back down to the reality of coaching and recruiting levels.

Wisconsin Recruiting Rank Links:

Most recent year , year over year recruiting improvement and 4 year moving averages of all 120 teams recruiting rankings based on CFBMatrix national composite rankings.

2011 Wisconsin Roster/Depth Chart

Wisconsin Schedule and SOS/EOS Breakdown

The total SOS for the Badgers in 2011 is ranked #10 in the Big Ten.  However, excluding the 2010 season, the model missed on just 5 of 36 Wisconsin games from ’07 – ’09.  With that in mind, I expect the team to revert to it’s overall trend which is +/- 1 game each season vs the model.

OOC games are a quick 4-0 for the Badgers.  All are at home and they have no home upsets in the last 4 years within the CFBMatrix model.  Any OCC loss is an upset.

The conference schedule is very different as the Badgers have the #4 ranked SOS in the Big Ten.  They are slightly better at home than on the road.   Purdue and Indiana will be beat.  However, Nebraska and Penn State pose a different problem.  In the last 4 years, Penn State has lost only 4 games on the road in which they out recruited the host the previous 4 years and Nebraska hasn’t lost any in such a manner.  Both fit as both out recruited Wisconsin in the last 4 years.

The road may be very unkind to the Badgers in 2011.  Outside the 2010 season, Wisconsin has ZERO upset wins the previous 4 years.  If the pattern holds, they will lose to MSU, OSU and Illinois.

Links to other Badger stats, trends, and articles

NFL/Recruiting Rank Ratios    Team Records – Odds Matrix    Returning Starters (All teams)

Wisconsin Win/Recruiting Trend Chart

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