BIG 12 – Net Game Effect – Coaching Performance within the CFBMatrix model.
If you have read ‘About the CFBMatrix’, you already know it started with the idea of using recruiting ranking to establish trends and predictability in college football teams and games. With I have shown that our national composite recruiting rankings can be directly correlated with nearly 70% of all CFB games. The rest, as was discovered, was a tied into coaching ability and scheduling. There are multiple other ‘little things’ that are part of a team’s success or lack thereof, but those a proven to be isolated and not correlated to football outcomes as a whole.
In this BIG 12 article, I breakdown the net coaching effect for each coach in total, at home and away. While these numbers do not reflect the true ‘value’ or ability of a coach, it certainly provides a comparison and perspective any other ‘ranking’ article lacks. These are not my opinions or ‘expertise’ on the subject, as they are simple numbers provided to add to the information gathering for every fan. They may confirm your emotions about a coach, open your eyes to a new angle of interpretation or just make you more angry.
The biggest caveat to these numbers are chances and opportunity. For teams like Oklahoma or Texas, they have very few chances in a season to beat someone that the model says should beat them and therefore, negative game effects are more likely. For teams like Iowa State and Kansas State, nearly every game is a chance to beat someone that they are supposed to lose to in the model. The other part of your evaluation of the coaches should be their recruiting. As I always say, you recruit to win, not win to recruit. You need to be able to maximize recruiting and then your wins. A coach may be good on game day with less talent, but without recruiting they are never going to move up too far.
|Team||Coach||Coaching Effect (games)||Coaching Effect Home (games)||Coaching Effect Road (games)||Coaching Years (4Yr Max)||Total Annual Average||Home Ave/Yr||Away Ave/Yr||Recruiting Class Rank ’08-’11|
|Kansas State||Bill Synder||+4||+4||0||2||+2.00||2.00||0||77|
|Oklahoma State||Mike Gundy||+5||0||+5||4||+1.25||0.00||1.25||32|
|Iowa State||Paul Rhoads||+2||0||+2||2||+1.00||0.00||1.00||71|
|Texas Tech||Tommy Tuberville||-2||-1||-1||1||-2.00||-1.00||-1.00||33|
|Texas A&M||Mike Sherman||-10||-7||-3||3||-3.33||-2.33||-1.00||17|
Coach Sherman (tier I) and Coach Tuberville (tier III) are both listed on the National Hot Seat Watch List