Missouri Tigers 2011 Profile
It may surprise many that Coach Pinkel is just +2 total over the last 4 years in net coaching effect with a zero total effect at home. 2007 was a big year in the trends as he was +3, but has been +/- only 1 game against the CFBMatrix number for 3 straight years.
At home Pinkel is solid and projections for home wins is 5. The two big games will be hosting Oklahoma State and Texas Tech. Two big road games especially at Arizona State and at Baylor may swing extra wins or loses to the Tigers. To get to 7 wins, those two are must wins. Projections of 7-5 could be pushed down with a surprise road loss or not taking care of home games.
Recruiting has flattened and even started a slight downturn with the terrible 201 class. If they are to take this team to the next level, it must improve. There needs to be a higher level of talent in the form of top 20 and top 30 classes. Until recruiting consistently improves, 10 win season will be harder to come by in the new Big 12.
Links to other Missouri Tigers stats
2011 Tigers Roster/Depth Chart – Pending
2011 Missouri Schedule and SOS/EOS Breakdown
Welcome to the new Big 12 schedule. All Big 12 fans are about to confront the same issue that the PAC-10 foolishly put itself into year ago by forcing 9 conference games. This immediately places the conference at a lower ‘power rank’ in most computers since they gauge strength off of wins. The 9 game conference schedule is a disadvantage in rank to the Big 12, ACC and SEC that schedule 8 conference games and the Big East that has only 7.
Nothing really strong or weak about the Tigers schedule. Overall, it is in the lower half of national SOS ranks and total SOS. Their OOC is a SOS of 86.0 and that should indicate a quick 3 wins, not 4, as in the past. The road game at Arizona State will be a challenge, but Coach Pinkel is stronger on the road than at home. That extra game is going to take a toll on many BIG 12 teams.
Their conference schedule SOS is in the bottom half of the conference . It is a favorable home/away schedule. Straight up recruiting numbers shows a 5-7 record, but the Tigers home/away strength adjustment takes it to 7-5. The CFBMatrix model has been +/- 1 games each of the last 3 years on the Tigers. The best trend and number based on recruiting, schedule adjustment and coaching effect is 7 wins (+/- 1 game) in 2011.
Missouri Recruiting Rank Links:
Missouri Tigers Win/Recruiting Trend Chart
Two years big year in ’07 (11 wins) and ’10 (10 wins) are mixed in with normal win trends. The 4 year moving average for recruiting was moving up until this last recruiting cycle in 2011. A team recruiting rank in the 60’s in 2009 and a 50’s rank in 2011 should start taking effect this year. The Tigers recruiting rank trends have become more inconsistent over the past 4 years. Can this team become consistent in recruiting classes into the 20s and 30s? If not, these big years every 4 seasons may become farther and farther apart.