Oklahoma Sooners 2011 Profile
This is just a reminder as the CFBMatrix modeling is new to fans, but it is based in recruiting ranking. It is designed to give us the ‘most likely’ outcomes for predictability and tells us the profile on coaching, scheduling and many other aspects of a football program.
What do we see for the Oklahoma Sooners in 2011? Let’s start with the base: recruiting. The Composite Team Rank for the Sooners in 2011 was #13. This is 9 spots below their 2010 class and -2 spots under their ’07-’10 average. This projects a likely win total to be even with 2010. In looking at their schedule below for the baseline recruiting win/loss modeling, it too projects 10 wins. The Sooners have a coach that projects as a slightly negative game effect coach over the last 4 years but recruiting remains at an elite level above the #17 total 4 year average line. Barring unforeseen injury, they should win 10 games and is a contender for a BCS title berth.
Links to other Oklahoma Sooners stats
2011 Oklahoma Schedule and SOS/EOS Breakdown
Analysis of SOS and EOS Numbers: Really nice conference schedule for the Sooners with the easiest SOS of the BIG 12 teams. Toughest conference game is on a neutral field and they get A&M at home. No conference championship game improves the odds of a BCS title bid even more. Only 6 total home games and 4 home conference game and middle of the pack OOC SOS/EOS.
The first 5 games will decide the season for the Sooners by playing Texas and Florida State. I am still concerned about the small but talented class for the 2011 recruiting year. It plays a much bigger factor in a season than most fans realize. Although this is a Tier I team for 2011, missing a BCS title bid with one oddball loss is a statistical concern. Odds are less than 20% that Oklahoma wins 11 or more games in 2011.
In looking at losses over the last 4 years, the model sees just 4 road upsets. All 4 games fit neatly within a range in the model. The only teams within that range this year on the road are Baylor and Oklahoma State. A threat to lose always looms, but in the last 4 years, OU has had just one home upset. Within the model, any home loss this year is an ‘upset’.
One of the most successful programs of the decade. A drop in wins every 4 years or so contributes to the difficulty of forecasting elite teams every year. Nevertheless, recruiting is great at Oklahoma and 10+ wins are the norm. The chart is trending toward that 9-11 wins in 2011 based on their coaching affect, schedule and recruiting rankings.
Oklahoma Recruiting Rank Links:
Oklahoma Win/Recruiting Trend Chart
10+ wins in 7 of the last 9 seasons, recruiting staying above the BCS Berth line and trending slightly up….what is there not to like. As long as recruiting stays high, Coach Stoops remains and the Sooners stay in the Big12, anything less than 10 wins is a surprise against the odds.
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