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Texas A&M Aggies – 2011 CFBMatrix Profile
The number for Coach Sherman and his staff since 2008 are a mixed bag of up trends in wins, yet very poor coaching of the recruited talent. This team, both last year and in 2011 has elite level talent and should have the expectations of a 9-10 win team every year if recruiting levels are maintained. If improved, this team should be competing directly with Texas and Oklahoma for a BCS bowl/title berth. Schedule will play a give part in that equation.
On the downside for those expecting great things there are several trends going against the Aggies. (1) No team has made a BCS title game with a sub 25 class going into the current season and (2) Coach Sherman has nearly a -3 game effect per year on his team. Granted, it has gone from -5 to -4 to -1 in ’10 but the problem, mostly, is at home, where a team MUST win to compete in the upper rankings.
Posting a -7 net effect at home in the BIG 12 is terrible. One more win at home last year against a team they should have beat would have put them at 10-2 and likely would have put them rather than Arkansas in a BCS bowl.
Links to other Texas A&M stats
NFL/Recruiting Rank Ratios – Where does Texas A&M rank?
Team Records – Odds Matrix – Where does a team with 9 wins go the following year?
Returning Starters (All teams) – The 2010 difference in having or not having a returning starting QB was nearly a game per team.
2011 Aggies Roster/Depth Chart – Pending
Aggies Schedule Breakdown and SOS/EOS
Welcome to the new Big 12 schedule. All Big 12 fans are about to confront the same issue that the PAC-10 foolishly put itself into years ago by forcing 9 conference games. This immediately places the conference at a lower ‘power rank’ in most computers since they gauge strength off of wins. The 9 game conference schedule is a disadvantage in rank to the Big 12, ACC and SEC that schedule 8 conference games and the Big East that has only 7. It also takes away an easy OOC win and replaces it with a more challenging and physical game.
The SOS per OOC game for the Aggies is tougher than the conference schedule. Ranked #3 in the BIG 12 for OOC SOS the Aggies get an easy opening two games followed by two season defining games with the Cowboys and Arkansas. This team should start 4-0 and be in the thick of the top 15. However, if the coaching staff reverts to old habits, this team could be 2-2 and looking at 8-4 or worse.
The Aggies conference schedule is the 8th easiest behind only Texas and Oklahoma. Five conference home games would normally be very good, but with their trends you never really know. 3-1 on the road in conference and 4-2 at home in conference are the best trends in relation to the 3 year team metrics. A big plus is the returning starters including the QB.
Aggies Recruiting Rank Links:
Texas A&M Win/Recruiting Trend Chart
Great chart except the last two years of recruiting. 4 year moving average for recruiting rank is over the elite line, but 2011 produced a #31 ranked class. That trend needs to change in 2012 to keep OU and UT in sight. Win trend is very good, but as noted before, it is still underperforming for many years.