Texas Longhorns

Texas Longhorns 2011 Matrix Profile

I am not falling for it.  I don’t buy into the media and non-Longhorn hype that this team won’t bounce back in 2011.

2010 was one of the biggest disappointments and surprises EVER in modern college football.  We have seen Florida, Oklahoma and others ‘tank’ to 6 or 7 wins, but 5 from a team that should be an automatic 10+ with 12-0 expectations…never.

Anyone can over think, over analyze and over look the Horns in 2011 but lets look at the trends and metrics.  This is still an elite team and with Oklahoma, the class of the Big 12.  In the 9 years leading up to 2010, coach Brown and staff had never been worse than a -3 net game effect for a season and has posted multiple 12-0 years.  If they get back into that range, this is a 9-3 team, worst case scenario.

We know 63% of the time, teams that go 5-7 improve to .500 or above the following year (and those are teams with much less talent).  One solid year and this team is right back where it left off in ’99-’09.

Links to other Longhorn stats

NFL/Recruiting Rank Ratios

Team Records – Odds Matrix

Returning Starters (All teams)

2011 Longhorn Roster/Depth Chart

2011 Texas Schedule and SOS/EOS Breakdown

Welcome to the new Big 12 schedule.  All Big 12 fans are about to confront the same issue that the PAC-10 foolishly put itself into year ago by forcing 9 conference games.  This immediately places the conference at a lower ‘power rank’ in most computers since they gauge strength off of wins.  The 9 game conference schedule is a disadvantage in rank to the Big 12, ACC and SEC that schedule 8 conference games and the Big East that has only 7.

When I look at this schedule, and disregard 2010’s record for the Horns, how can a fan of the program not be excited about the 2011 opportunity.  Everyone is down on you, even alumni but look at what you have coming up.  The OOC is the toughest in the BIG12, but you host BYU and go to a terribly coached UCLA.  But your BIG12 schedule in #9 in SOS behind Oklahoma, who is played on a neutral field.

OSU at home, Tech at home and then just A&M on the road for what could be a 9-11 win season.  Looking just at the trends and metrics, 8 wins or fewer is the unlikely odds and third or better in the BIG12 is a minimum level of performance.  While Coach Brown will effect 1-2 games negatively, this is still a very dangerous team to discount.

Texas Recruiting Rank Links:

Most recent year , year over year recruiting improvement and 4 year moving averages of all 120 teams recruiting rankings based on CFBMatrix national composite rankings.

Longhorn Win/Recruiting Trend Chart

Amazing to see the 2010 season factored into the chart.  Totally out of left field, but can quickly get it back on track with a solid 9-0 wins in 2011.  No question recruiting and talent is VERY elite and being maintained at the highest level.  It is down to coaching as the schedule is average at best and lower half BIG12 competition is weak.  However, another sub 8 win season and there may be more than a few issues in Austin.


2 Responses to Texas Longhorns

  1. Brons2 says:

    The recruiting rank vs. wins total shows significant underachievement, especially on 2010. I agree, the ship needs to be righted NOW.

  2. Jimmy says:

    Texas is still two years out.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )


Connecting to %s