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Texas Tech Red Raiders 2011 Profile
On the positive side, Coach Tuberville did a very good job continuing the recruiting trend upward for Tech in the 2011 cycle. On the negative side, wins dropped in 2010 vs. 2009 and he was a -2 game coach (-1 home, -1 road) in his first year. While he and the staff can turn it around, they need to do so in 2011. With a -2 start, it becomes increasingly difficult to dig out of a net negative trend. He is on the hot seat ‘watch’ for now. A 7 win or more season is needed in ’11, otherwise the trends of past coaching matrix charts makes for a dim future.
Recruiting is trending up so fans of Tech should be expecting increasingly better results. The Red Raiders are in the middle of a tough second tier of the BIG 12 and to break out of it they will need to start recruiting classes in the top 25 or better. If Tuberville can keep up classes like the 2011 group, 8 -9 wins should be expected every year and give them a chance for a one-hit 10+ win season in a few years.
Links to other Red Raider stats, trends, and articles
2011 Red Raiders Roster/Depth Chart – Pending
2011 Texas Tech Schedule and SOS/EOS Breakdown
Welcome to the new Big 12 schedule. All Big 12 fans are about to confront the same issue that the PAC-10 foolishly put itself into year ago by forcing 9 conference games. This immediately places the conference at a lower ‘power rank’ in most computers since they gauge strength off of wins. The 9 game conference schedule is a disadvantage in rank to the Big 12, ACC and SEC that schedule 8 conference games and the Big East that has only 7.
This will be the tale of two seasons for the Red Raiders schedule but an opportunity to immediately get back into the top 25 of the country. Their OOC is a SOS of 103.7 and is the easiest OCC in the BIG 12. If Tech cannot start 3-0, then get mad Lubbock, I would be. There is no reason, other than poor coaching, that this team is not undefeated heading into October.
Their conference schedule SOS is #3 in the BIG 12. They get a break by being one of the teams with 5 home conference games . Tech is in that second tier talent cluster with Missouri, Oklahoma State and Baylor and they have 2 out of 3 of those games at home. The last 3 weeks of the season will define 2011 for Texas Tech. With just one year in Lubbock, Tuberville has given us little information to work with other than being a net negative game coach in his first year. The recruiting and scheduling variables say 8 wins, but net negative coaching makes 7 the most likely number for 2011.
Texas Tech Recruiting Rank Links:
Red Raiders Win/Recruiting Trend Chart
If you start with the last few years of trends, this chart is not one a Texas Tech Fan may want to see as recruiting is on the rise and the win total of ’10 was the lowest of the decade. However, 7 wins is the bottom of the last decade having hit it 4 times but never below it. Look at the moving average recruiting rank line. It peaked in 2006 and two years later so did the win totals. Recruiting started diving in 2006 and bottomed in 2008 and wins bottomed out TWO YEARS later in 2010. Recruiting has been on a rise since 2008 and is getting near its all time high moving average ranking. If Tech hired the right coach, then recruiting will remain consistently in the top 30s and the win totals should start trending upward again.