Non-AQ Conferences

I have never put together the non-AQ conference and team metrics before.  It takes a lot of time, it can be hard to predict and no one really seems to care.  However, I have a number of requests to do so and therefore I put together just the CFBMatrix final standings for each conference.

This takes me back to the original baseline of the CFBMatrix where I simply took two teams 4 year recruiting ranking, added a national average factor in favor of the home team and the lowest number was modeled to win.  Here it is:  The MAC, WAC, MWC, Sun Belt and the strongest one, Conference USA.

Conference USA East and West
From our perspective of recruiting rank this is a two team division in the Conf USA East.  Southern Miss and UCF with the lean to the home team in their game.  Marshal and Memphis should be 3/4 and East Carolina 5 with UAB being in 6th.  They may not win any game but the Tulane game.

The West division is a bit more competitive with 3 in the top half and 3 clearly in the bottom half.  UTEP may not win a conference game.  The 1,2,3 slots came down to the best schedule which was Houston.

Expect Southern Miss or UCF to get some top 25 votes as only the MWC has a bigger gap in talent from the top 2 to the rest of the conference.  One of them will get into the 9-10 wins range and make voters feel like they should be included even though they play a schedule of no comparison to any AQ school.

Team 4 Yr Recruiting Rank Ave Team 4 Yr Recruiting Rank Ave
1 Southern Miss 53.5 1 Houston 61
2 UCF 54.25 2 SMU 63.25
4 Marshall 71.5 3 Tulsa 72.5
3 Memphis 75.75 4 Rice 91.25
5 East Carolina 87.25 5 Tulane 92.5
6 UAB 95.75 6 UTEP 96.75

Mountain West Conference
Although their recruiting levels would not be in the top 75% of any AQ conference and not AQ school has won a division NOR conference title with a 4 year recruiting rank under 55, TCU and Boise State have the largest talent gap between the top two team and the rest of the conference.  This would be like taking everyone but Oklahoma and Texas out of the BIG12 and replacing it with the Big East.  That would lock the Big12 for a BCS title game annually.  CSU and San Diego should battle for 3rd and 4th (home team advantage) while the bottom 4 just play to keep out of 8th.

Team 4 Yr Recruiting Rank Ave
1 Boise State 72.5
2 TCU 66.25
3 Colorado State 85.75
4 San Diego State 82.25
6 UNLV 91.75
7 Air Force 93.25
8 Wyoming 97.25
9 New Mexico 93.5

Another 2 team conference.  This is all about Hawaii and Fresno State.  Hawaii hosts them, so advantage for conference title goes to Hawaii.  They should only lose to Washington and BYU so 10-2 is a solid expectation.  So, I do expect them and/or Fresno State.  But Fresno, with their ‘anytime, anywhere’ attitude is shot themselves in the foot.  The scheduled Nebraska, Cal and Ole Miss.  3 loses that would keep them from a possible 11-1 season.  What would you take 11-1 and top 10 or 8-4 and no top 25.  Yup that’s how it works. The other 7 teams are good balance of talent and should beat each other up for 3-9.

Team 4 Yr Recruiting Rank Ave
1 Hawaii 73
2 Fresno State 68.5
3 Louisiana Tech 87.25
4 San Jose State 98
5 Nevada 101.5
6 New Mexico State 116.75
7 Idaho 103.25
8 Utah State 101.75

Sun Belt Conference
Even balance in talent.  Advantage Troy with their schedule.  FIU, Western KY and Mid. Tennessee should battle for 2-4.  The bottom 5 is a coin toss, but its a good bet ULM and LA-Laf will be at the bottom.

Team 4 Yr Recruiting Rank Ave
1 Troy 76.25
2 FIU 88.25
4 Middle Tennessee 90.75
3 Western Kentucky 96
5 North Texas 100.5
6 Arkansas State 102.25
7 Florida Atlantic 108
8 Louisiana-Lafayette 111
9 ULM 115.75

Mid-American Conference

Team 4 Yr Recruiting Rank Ave Team 4 Yr Recruiting Rank Ave
1 Bowling Green 94.75 1 Central Michigan 87.25
2 Temple 88.25 2 Toledo 84.25
3 Ohio 100.75 3 Western Michigan 97
4 Akron 95.75 4 Northern Illinois 104.75
5 Kent State 108 5 Ball State 107
6 Miami (Oh) 105.5 6 Eastern Michigan 113.25
7 Buffalo 114.25

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