Arizona Sun Devils 2011 CFBMatrix Profile
Recruiting has taken a nose dive over the last three years and 2011 was a awful class for Coach Erickson. This team, if recruiting remains poor, is on a path for sub .500 seasons and the bottom half of the PAC12 South. A #36 composite 4 year class heading in to the 2011 season is not bad, but certainly it is not the profile of a top 25 team, especially given the coaching effect the last two years.
His coaching effect over the last 4 years is Zero, but with a range of -2 through +2. It is a real rollercoaster and hard to predict. The last two years have both been negative in parallel with declining recruiting. The baseline win/loss predictor has been correct 79.1% of the time on all ASU regular season games since 2007. This coupled with the coaching effect gives a very broad range of 5 to 9 wins in 2011.
Can this team win the PAC12 South? Only if USC completely tanks the season. However, it is a very weak division and 5-4 could get them into the conference championship game as they should go 4-1 in their division.
Sun Devis Recruiting Rank Links:
2011 Schedule Overview
The toughest part of the Sun Devils schedule is the first 4 weeks. Fortunately, it involves 3 of 4 at home in the heat of the Arizona desert. This is the part of the schedule that can make or break the entire year. The expectations would be for this team to go 1-3 during that stretch. However the Missouri game is at home and their quarterback position is unsettled, at Illinois is a winnable game and USC is as talented as any team, but terrible coaching and the NCAA ruling against them may have season long effects. There are no tough back to back games the rest of the way and their toughest game, at Oregon, is followed with a bye and a, almost as good as a bye, game against Colorado.
In looking at the SOS and EOS of ASU, there is nothing that stands out in their 2011 schedule. #5 ranking for total conference SOS is boosted by the above average OOC with games at Illinois and with Missouri. If recruiting had stayed at higher levels, the expectations for more wins would be in the model. However, their conference SOS suggests to be on the positive side of .500 football and the EOS places it closest to 6-6. Coach Erickson has never been +/- more than 1 full games versus the baseline of the model for three of the last four years. This make a 5-7 win season in Tempe the expected range for performance. above or below the numbers are outside the statistical expectation for the Sun Devils. With only five road games on the schedule and a 0 (zero) =/- coaching effect, 6 total wins with a 5-4 conference record are the best odds for 2011.
Links to other Sun Devil stats, trends, and articles
Sun Devils Win/Recruiting Trend Chart
The 2007 was really the only year that was outside expectations within the model for the Sun Devils. One the positive side, it was a plus year on the wins. However, three consecutive years of below 4 year moving average classes is going to have it’s effect on the team record. Coach Erickson has been fairly consistent in his win/loss record and with the decline in talent I expect to see Arizona State be flat or decline in wins for 2011.