…in conjunction with the PAC12 Conference Official Visitors and National Profile Matrix for College Football Recruiting for 2007-2011.
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Quick CFBMatrix intro: Half way through the 2011 season and our National Revised 4 Year Team Recruiting Rankings have been correct in game picks 77% of the time across all FBS games including most of Arizona State’s games year to date and 84% of all PAC12 games. These were picks made in March 2011, 6 months before the season including all the non-AQ teams.
As the national leader in team recruiting stats, metrics and trends, I am in a constant search for new numbers in profiling college football team recruiting. As official visits are starting to heat up, I was curious as to the breakdown of official visit success on the team level, by conference and nationally. Being a Duck, I naturally started with the PAC12 (click here for PAC12 Article and Breakdown). I understand that there are any number of unreported unofficial visits and many commit without even a visit when they get an offer from their dream school However, official visits are very important as they serve as a significant marketing tool get more visits from top players. Take what you want from the numbers, but if you loves stats, trends and the CFBMatrix system, this stuff is for you!
I took a look at each team and its numbers and here is how the Sun Devils breakdown for official visits since the 2007 recruiting cycle. With coaching and player turnover as a long term factor, I used only the last 5 years to start the profiling. I will add recruiting cycles with subsequent updates.
Top months for visitors: January – 69 December – 54 (The rest are 0-38 visitors each month)
Top months to get OV to commit – Dec – 55% Jan – 56%
Average commit Rate from OV to Tempe – 44% – #10 in conf. (PAC12 conf. ave 49%) and #2 for Total OVs
Key observation: OV closing/commit rate was down to 34% and 46% in 2011 and 2010. Well below the conference average, and much lower than the previous 2 years of 56% and 55%. I don’t think it is a coincidence that ASU’s average team recruiting rank has dropped in the last two years as well. They are getting more kids for OVs, but getting “out-closed” by other schools
In the PAC12, OVs have increased in numbers every month from pre-season (Aug -) all the way to January. The Sun Devils are below the conference average in commit rates for October, November, December and January. The Sun Devils have a high number of OVs during the season, averaging just about 6 OVs per month in the last 5 years from September through November.