Arizona Wildcats 2011 CFBMatrix Profile
I do not like the profile and trend of the Wildcats at all. A 4 year recruiting rank of #53, a #59 class last year, which was 23 spots less than 2010 and a declining win trend is not a good sign. While Coach Stoops has a +5 game effect, ranked #3 in the PAC12, over the last 4 years, four of those games were from the 2009 season when they picked up 3 huge road wins. But outside that year, he is plus one game (which is still OK) but with declining recruiting, that is a bad combination.
The declining recruiting indicates a strong likelihood of fewer wins in 2011 as well. Fortunately for Wildcat fans, the rest of the PAC12 South is weak and the one elite team has a poor coach and is now crippled for 6+ years by the NCAA. Any total of wins over 6 for Arizona is a victory for 2011.
Arizona Recruiting Rank Links:
This is just a brutal opening 5 weeks for Arizona. If they are anything better than 1-4 to start, that should be considered a plus. The 3rd toughest PAC12 conference schedule is going to be tough to take in Tucson this year. Just 4 of their 10 FBS games are at home, where other than the 2009 season, they have been much stronger. To think this was a team on the edge of a Rose Bowl berth just 18 months ago and now the model had a recruiting baseline expectation of just 4 wins in 2011.
There is no home/away game adjustments and a coaching effect adjustment can be no more than +1 game. Their recruiting, schedule, coaching and ability would put 6 wins at the upper end of expectations.
However, on the down side with a couple of back breaks, injuries (lack of depth) and a demoralizing start this team could see a win the first week and one the last week and a bunch of heartbreak in between those Ws. If Foles is healthy they are most likely to see 5/6 wins with 2 or 3 coming from conference games.
Best Upset Win Opportunities: Home vs UCLA on the Road at Arizona State
Links to other Wildcats stats, trends, and articles
Arizona Wildcats Win/Recruiting Trend Chart
Down, down and down. There is nothing good to see here other than Coach Stoops taking his best classes (’05 & ’06) and rolling them into 8 wins in 2009. But, the recruiting could not keep pace and that, given another year of poor recruiting may be the end of his tenure. The wins dropped off a bit in 2010 and certainly are pointing in a downtrend to mirror the ‘Cats 4 year moving recruiting rank average. Just looking at this trend chart the most likely landing spot for wins in 2011 is 5 or 6, which mirrors the modeling predictions noted above in the matrix analysis.