…in conjunction with the PAC12 Conference Official Visitors and National Profile Matrix for College Football Recruiting for 2007-2011.
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Quick CFBMatrix intro: Half way through the 2011 season and our National Revised 4 Year Team Recruiting Rankings have been correct in game picks 75% of the time across all FBS games including most of Arizona’s games year to date (missed on the Utes) and 84% of all PAC12 games. These were picks made in March 2011, 6 months before the season including all the non-AQ teams.
As the national leader in team recruiting stats, metrics and trends, I am in a constant search for new numbers in profiling college football team recruiting. As official visits are starting to heat up, I was curious as to the breakdown of official visit success on the team level, by conference and nationally (click here for PAC12 Article and Breakdown). I understand that there are any number of unreported unofficial visits and many commit without even a visit when they get an offer from their dream school However, official visits are very important as they serve as a significant marketing tool get more visits from top players. Take what you want from the numbers, but if you loves stats, trend and the CFBMatrix system, this stuff is for you!
I took a look at each team and its numbers and here is how the Wildcats breakdown for official visits since the 2007 recruiting cycle. With coaching and player turnover as a long term factor, I used only the last 5 years to start the profiling. I will add recruiting cycles with subsequent updates.
Top months for visitors: November – 38 December – 30 (The rest are 0-23 visitors each month)
Top months to get OV to commit – Jan – 39% All other months are less than 30%
Average commit Rate from OV to Tucson – 28% – #12 in conf. (PAC12 conf. ave 49%)
Key observation: OV closing/commit rate for the Wildcats has been between poor and awful. the 2009 recruiting cycle was the only one in the last 5 years that was above a 40% closing rate. The other four years ranged from 22%-32%. This metric coupled with the very lower number of total OVs (11th) makes for very poor recruiting classes. In my opinion the new coaching staff needs to retool and upgrade the OV process and timing. Arizona is a great place to visit in December and January and should be a focus of the staff to get more kids on campus after the football season.
In the PAC12, OVs have increased in numbers every month from pre-season (Aug -) all the way to January. The Wildcats are below average in commit rates for every month in the recruiting cycle. Unlike most of the PAC12, Arizona schedules a significant number of their total annual OVs during the season (Oct/Nov). The PAC12 teams as a whole, have very few in February prior to LOI day.