Cal Bears – Official Visitor Matrix

…in conjunction with the PAC12 Conference Official Visitors and National Profile Matrix for College Football Recruiting for 2007-2011.

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Quick CFBMatrix intro: Half way through the 2011 season and our National Revised 4 Year Team Recruiting Rankings have been correct in game picks 74% of the time across all FBS games including most  of  Cal’s games year to date and 79% of all PAC12 games. These were picks made in March 2011, 6 months before the season including all the non-AQ teams using only the Field Adjusted Recruiting Ranking system of the Matrix.

As the national leader in team recruiting stats, metrics and trends, I am in a constant search for new numbers in profiling college football team recruiting.  As official visits are starting to heat up, I was curious as to the breakdown of official visit success on the team level, by conference and nationally (click here for PAC12 Article and Breakdown).  I understand that there are any number of unreported unofficial visits and many commit without even a visit when they get an offer from their dream school  However, official visits are very important as they serve as a significant marketing tool get more visits from top players.  Take what you want from the numbers, but if you loves stats, trend and the CFBMatrix system, this stuff is for you!

I took a look at each team and its numbers and here is how the Bears breakdown for official visits since the 2007 recruiting cycle.  With coaching and player turnover as a long term factor, I used only the last 5 years to start the profiling.  I will add recruiting cycles with subsequent updates.

Top months for visitors:  December – 79  January – 45    October – 27   (The rest are 0-14 visitors each month)

Top months to get OV to commit – Dec – 64%     Jan – 53%

Average commit Rate from OV to Berkeley – 54% – #3 in conf.  (PAC12 conf. ave 49%)

Key observation:  The Cal Bears strategy appears to rely greatly on Bay Area talent.  They have the 9th fewest OVs in the PAC12 over the last 5 years.  Not that it is a bad number, as USC and UCLA has lower OVs as well, but if Cal want to improve the talent maybe the staff needs to look at their recruiting strategy as, until 2011, recruiting was stagnate (as was the record).

In the PAC12, OVs have increased in numbers every month from pre-season (Aug -) all the way to January.  The Bears are above average in commit rates for October and December.  The Bears rarely have OVs during the season with the exception of October (closing over half the OVs in Oct.)  They are averaging just about  1 OV per month in the last 5 years from February through October + November.   The PAC12 teams as a whole, have very few in February through August (exception Stanford).


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