Oregon Ducks 2011 CFBMatrix Profile
The profile of the team is part of the recruiting baseline and final record analysis for the Ducks. The 4 year recruiting ranking is the baseline for determining the first step in the record predictor process. The baseline win/loss predictor has been correct 77.7% of the time on all regular season Duck games since 2008. Recruiting remains stable and above the ‘elite’ line. The coaching staff has a net game effect of +2 after 2 years, which is very good for an elite team.
Recruiting continues to trend up and the Ducks are nearing the point that with recruiting and home variables, any loss at home is an upset.
The CFBMatrix model had the most likely record for the Ducks at 10 regular season wins in 2009 and 11 in 2010.
Links to other Ducks stats, trends, and articles
2011 Schedule Overview
Couple of notes right away. The neutral site game with LSU is national title berth elimination game. If these two teams hadn’t scheduled this opener, both would be much higher favorites for a BCS National title Berth. The Ducks are 5 of 6 against the model on neutral sites (bowls included). Since LSU has out recruited Oregon, they are picked by the model to win (just like the RB and BCS NC). The other 2 OCCs should be over at halftime. Ducks start 2-1.
Besides the SOS and prediction to the baseline (10 wins) the team has stable recruiting and remains above the ‘elite’ line all BCS title game players have had since 2002. Most of the games are cut and dry with highly likely losses and wins with the exception of LSU.
Coach Kelly and staff are +1 at home over the last 2 years with no net negative losses. Autzen Stadium not one to bet against at this time. Any loss it Eugene is an upset. The only challenge is on the road. The Ducks have lost just 1 conference game in two years to teams that did not out recruit the Ducks. The road games that could be of concern are @Washington and @Stanford. Any other road loses are upsets. The CFBMatrix model expects the PAC12 championship game to be played at a PAC12 North school stadium.
Ducks Recruiting Rank Links:
Oregon Ducks Win/Recruiting Trend Chart
Pretty easy to see that the Ducks fall right in line with the CFBMatrix expectations. Recruiting started off higher before good coaching caught up to it. You are not going to find to many charts with this type of long time up trend. The Ducks are now above the ‘elite line” and it takes top 25 classes to stay there. Elite level teams are usually 10+ wins per year against the baseline as long as recruiting stays high and the coaching staff stays intact.
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