…in conjunction with the PAC12 Conference Official Visitors and National Profile Matrix for College Football Recruiting for 2007-2011.
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Half way through the 2011 season and our National Revised 4 Year Team Recruiting Rankings have been correct in game picks 77% of the time across all FBS games including all of Oregon’s (team page link) games year to date (just like 2010 +1) and 84% of all PAC12 games. These were picks made in March 2011, 6 months before the season including all the non-AQ teams.
As the national leader in team recruiting stats, metrics and trends, I am in a constant search for new numbers in profiling college football team recruiting. As official visits are starting to heat up, I was curious as to the breakdown of official visit success on the team level, by conference and nationally. Being a Duck, I naturally started with the U of O and the PAC12 (click here for PAC12 Article and Breakdown). I understand that there are any number of unreported unofficial visits and many commit without even a visit when they get an offer from their dream school However, official visits are very important as they serve as a significant marketing tool get more visits from top players. Take what you want from the numbers, but if you loves stats, trend and the CFBMatrix system, this stuff is for you!
I took a look at each team and its numbers and here is how the Ducks breakdown for official visits since the 2007 recruiting cycle. With coaching and player turnover as long term factors, I used the last 5 years to start the profiling. I will add recruiting cycles with subsequent updates.
Top months for visitors: December – 61 November – 45 and October – 39
Top months to get OV to commit – Dec – 61% Jan – 55% Oct – 48%
Average commit Rate from OV to Eugene – 44.9%
Key observation: OV closing/commit rate has been 58% and 51% in the last 2 years versus 38%, 37% and 42% in the 3 previous years under Belloti.
In the PAC12, OV have increased in numbers every month from pre-season (Aug -) all the way to January. The Ducks are above average in commit rates for Sept, Oct and Dec. At 22% and 16% in November and prior to the start of the football season, the Ducks are well below the average for commits coming from OVs in those months. The Duck haven’t reported any OV in February and the PAC12 teams have very few in February prior to LOI day.
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Hey Dave, have you noticed the UofO OVs coming up the last of January? With the heavy OV schedule then due you see the ducks sticking at around 13th in the nation, moving up, or moving down? Scout/Rivals has us at 13 currently and 247 has us at 16.
I expect them to move up a bit but top ten is really set back in Sept. Elites get it done early. Ducks, Cal and Ohio State and few others are so awesome at the end this year.
As for rankings, you have to bookmark the best ranking page in CFB. Mine 🙂 It has the top 75 including month over month change, difference from Sept 1 and difference over 4 yr matrix adjusted recruiting rank. Short link: http://wp.me/P1pDOq-1i6
Thanks for the questions, comments and following.
Dave
Also where does the Matrix put us currently?