Oregon State Beavers

Oregon State Beavers – 2011 Profile

If there is a PAC12 team that drive the model nuts it is this team.  Odd loses, unpredictable wins, this team is all over the board.  Beaver fans should be thankful to have such a net positive game coach on the sidelines in Mike Riley.  Unfortunately, the recruiting has not improved in Corvallis and likely will not without a facilities upgrade.  Winning games will not improve the recruiting.

Since I live in western Washington County, I have personally seen Beaver fans grow very dependent on Coach Riley’s ability to win football games.  Eventually, as we saw in 2010, the coaching will be average and the record will regress to the recruiting level of the Beavers.

The 2011 recruiting cycle brought a #48 ranked composite call to the Beavers which is exactly their 4 year moving average.  This was a slight drop from their previous 4 year moving average and that is a tough trend when Washington, Oregon, Cal and Stanford all posted improvements.  This drop is a strong indicator that the win total for the Beavers will the at or below the 2010 level.  However, don’t bet on it to much as Coach Riley will likely pull out at least two unexpected wins to go with a “WTH” loss.

Coach Riley is +9 in game effect versus the CFBMatrix over the last 4 years.  That is the #1 coaching effect in the PAC12 and the #3 coaching effect in the country.  Both on the road and at home, they get more than their share of upsets.  Riley is one of just 5 coaches that mean more than 2+ wins on average over the last 4 years.

Oregon State Recruiting Rank Links:

Most recent year , year over year recruiting improvement and 4 year moving averages of all 120 teams recruiting rankings based on CFBMatrix national composite rankings.

2011 Oregon State Roster/Depth Chart

Oregon State 2011 Schedule

2010 was a close as it has come in any year by predicting 6 wins for 2010 (5).  But at a plus 9 games (+5 home/+4 road) Mike Riley has done an amazing job with lower tier talent.  Arguments are always made that it is more a factor of bad recruiting rankings versus coaching.  That is easy to say in looking at just their numbers, but when you look at all teams across the country, a poster child for more with less campaign is in Corvallis.  We will be posting the entire PAC12 and national coaching effect +/- rankings later in the spring.

Overall, the Beaver’s schedule is average.  #6 in total for the PAC12, #8 SOS for OOC games and #6 SOS in-conference.  This should help smooth expectations for win an extra game.   The season is really going to come down to the last 4 games for Oregon State.  Straight up with most other coaches they will go 0-4.  Most likely the finish will be 1-3 with a win against the road troubled Huskies.  To get bowl eligible and to 6-6 they will need to start off 5-3 which is doable.  The model points to the most likely outcome of 5-7 for Oregon State and a 5th place finish in the PAC12 North.

Links to other Beavers stats, trends, and articles

NFL/Recruiting Rank Ratios  Team Records – Odds Matrix  Returning Starters (All teams)

Oregon State Recruiting and Win Trend Chart

The 2011 recruiting cycle was very significant for Oregon State.  With the PAC 12 North having a big improvement in talent and that they were coming off two straight declining recruiting years 2011 needed to be better.  It was and that may help change the trends for the Beavers.  Another down recruiting year would have put the odds over 80% that the win total would drop again despise Coach Riley having one of the largest net positive game effects in the country!  Now 5 wins or better is highly likely for 2011.

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