2011 PAC 12 SOS and EOS Breakdowns
Just a friendly reminder that the CFBMatrix modeling uses recruiting rankings as the baseline for all modeling, rankings, etc. Unlike other ‘ranking systems’ that change with each CFB week during the season, the CFBMatrix SOS and EOS modeled in the spring before the season does not change.
The SOS calculations are based on the 4 year recruiting ranking plus the average home/away variable national average. I feel this is a snapshot into the true ‘strength’ of each schedule to start a season. The Ease of Schedule or EOS is the SOS minus the recruiting rank of the team. For EOS, the bigger the number, the greater the average recruiting gap between the team and the team on their schedule. In an era in which only wins count, the lower the SOS rank and the higher the EOS rank the better your chances of winning football games (provided you have a + net game effect coach).
Not a real big difference in the SOS from #4 through #12. However, the top 3 in the conference real have their work cut out due to scheduling. The most common impacts are tough road games and hard OOC scheduling. See below of OCC as USC is easily #1. Colorado is flat going to get beat up this year with a national top 10 SOS. 13 games, no byes, 7 roadies, terrible recruiting and the #12 EOS. If they don’t win in September, they may not win at all in 2011.
As usual, USC has the highest non-conference SOS. Although it makes for good reviews by the sportswriters, it makes it bad for season wins. I wonder how many post Ohio State upsets they would have had if they schedule San Diego State instead. The bottom 3 have really weak OOC SOS, but those should lead to 3 quick wins for programs that really need to put up any kind of Ws. However, those weak OOC schedules certainly won’t help season ticket sales or filling up a stadium.
For what the Cal, Arizona and Washington State lack in OOC scheduling, they get 3 of the top 4 spots in conference SOS. Utah catches a newbie break in the PAC 12 scheduling while the Buffaloes take it right in the shorts. UCLA at #12 is giving that coaching staff their last shot in my opinion. One of the worst net negative game coaches in the country with the #12 conference SOS and #2 conference EOS, this team should be in bowl games. USC should easily win the PAC 12 South and Oregon, Washington and Stanford will battle for who hosts a .500 team from the PAC 12 South for the Championship. Oregon has the best 4 year recruiting rank and best SOS/EOS ratio and, according the simple modeling, would be the best bet to represent the North