PAC12 Coaching – Net Game Effect

If you have read ‘About the CFBMatrix’, you already know it started with the idea of using recruiting ranking to establish trends and predictability in college football teams and games.  With I have shown that our national composite recruiting rankings can be directly correlated with over 70% of all CFB games.  The rest, as was discovered, was a tied into coaching ability and scheduling.  There are multiple other ‘little things’ that are part of a team’s success or lack thereof, but those a proven to be isolated and not correlated to football outcomes as a whole.

PLEASE READ! In this article, I want to breakdown the net coaching effect for each coach in total, at home and away.  This IS NOT a total coach ranking.  While these numbers do not reflect the true ‘value’ or ability of a coach, it certainly provides a comparison and perspective any other ‘ranking’ article lacks.  These are not my opinions or ‘expertise’ on the subject, as they are simple numbers provided to add to the information gathering for every fan.  They may confirm your emotions about a coach, open your eyes to a new angle of interpretation or just make you more angry.

The biggest caveat to these numbers are chances and opportunity.  For teams like USC or Oregon, they have very few chances in a season to beat someone that the model says should beat them and therefore, negative game effects are more likely.  For teams like Washington State, nearly every game is a chance to beat someone that they are supposed to lose to in the model and making Coach Wulff’s -.033 games per year a pretty poor metric.  The other part of your evaluation of the coaches should be their recruiting.   As I always say, you recruit to win, not win to recruit.  You need to be able to maximize recruiting and then your wins.  A coach may be good on game day with less talent, but without recruiting they are never going to move up too far.

Team Coach Coaching Effect (games) Coaching Effect Home (games) Coaching Effect Road (games)

Coaching Years   (4Yr Max)

Total Annual Average Home  Ave/Yr Away Ave/Yr Recruiting Class Rank ’08-’11
Oregon State Mike Riley +9 +5 +4 4 +2.25 +1.25 +1 48
Utah Kyle Whittingham +7 +4 +3 4 +1.75 +1 +0.75 58
Arizona Mike Stoops +5 +3 +2 4 +1.25 +0.75 +0.50 53
Oregon Chip Kelly +2 +1 +1 2 +1 +0.5 +0.50 16
Arizona State Dennis Erickson 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 36
Washington State Paul Wulff -1 0 -1 3 -0.33 0 -0.33 55
Washington Steve Sarkisian -3 0 -3 2 -1.5 0 -1.5 24
California Jeff Tedford -6 0 -6 4 -1.5 0 -1.5 27
UCLA Rick Neuheisel -16 -6 -10 4 -4 -1.5 -2.5 15
USC Lane Kiffin -5 -2 -3 1 -5 -2 -3 2
Stanford David Shaw NA NA NA 0 NA NA NA 26
Colorado Jon Embree NA NA NA 0 NA NA NA 68

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