December 31, 2011
By Dave Bartoo
Founder of the CFBMatrix system of CFB Analysis.
The National Leader in Team Recruiting Based Metrics, Data and Predictions
Official Recruiting Visits – PAC12 Conference
You follow us @CFBMatrix, you have read the articles, gone over your team’s page and know that our Recruiting Rank system for pre-season picking every PAC12 game was 77% correct for 2011. As the national leader in recruiting trends, metrics and predictability, I am offering up one more nugget of information in the 2011 season. Official Visits (OV) odds and metrics.
Have you ever wondered what are your odds if you can just get a kid to campus? Wonder no more. I break down every team, conference and national number of the next month so you are ready for the biggest part of the annual recruiting cycle : December and January.
I hear you out there, “But what about unofficial visits?”. They occur quite frequently and most often in programs that have a recruit living nearby to make the trip easier. However, the OVs are recorded and of greater value as they serve to market the program and provide a benchmark in which we can compare all FBS programs.
CLICK TO PRINT: PAC12 OV Matrix 2012
With recruits allowed up to 5 OVs, it was a small surprise that the average commit rate from OVs in the PAC12 was 49%. All but the two high percentages (Washington and UCLA) and the two low percentages (Arizona and Utah) were with 5% of the conference average. When going head to head, it is close to a coin flip,; however, some schools clearly have a greater likelihood of getting a commitment from a recruit if they get them to visit.
A very good profile is that of recruits from the state of Arizona. Quite a few highly ranked athletes have been developed in recent years, but many of them have opted to leave the state. It is no surprise that the Wildcats and Sun Devils are near the bottom of the chart for overall commit rate off of OVs. This, in my opinion, was the greatest downfall for former HC Stoops. In 2009 his commit rate off OVs dropped in conjunction with the recruiting team ranks and the cycle was ended this season with his dismissal.
Best months for OVs and best closing months by team
In observing the PAC12 month by month visits, commits and percentages above, it is clear that recruiting accelerates in intensity from august through January. In each month the number of OVs increases as we move forward through the season with over half of the OVs coming in December and January. These are also the months that the commit rate increase to an average greater than 50%. Bottom line, if your team is not getting many OVs in those key months, your recruiting and future performance is in trouble!
For nearly every PAC12 team, OV volume hits its max in December and January. The commitment rate off these OVs are typically higher in each teams heaviest Official Visitor months. Colorado, Stanford and Oregon are the only PAC12 schools that do not have December and January as top OV volume months. Only Colorado, Utah and Arizona do not have at least 2 month in which the average commit rate off OVs is over 50%
*For more detail on each school’s months, visits and commit rate versus the conference, click on the team page link above. Each team is done one at a time, so your team may not be posted but is in process. – Dave
Total OVs and Total OV commits by team
With most teams near the 50% commit to OV mark, it is really a numbers game for those outside of major populations. UCLA and USC (58% and 50% commit rate) have below average numbers for OVs. However, being in the major market of LA, they host many more unofficial visits than most of the other PAC12 schools.
Stanford is very unusual in that they have a tremendous number of OVs and a high commit rate. I would assume that would correlate with their academics and the need to draw from all over the US for athletes.
The four worst recruiters in the PAC12, Utah, Oregon State, Arizona and Colorado, have 3 of the 4 lowest OV rates and OV commit volume. Colorado is the only one of these 4 not in the bottom third of the totals. They must not be getting a level athletes on OVs or simply getting only the lower tier levels to commit. For these teams with low numbers, there needs to be a review of the current process and what they need to do in order to get the numbers up. Because in the CFBMatrix, you recruit to win, not win to recruit.