UCLA Bruins

UCLA Bruins 2011 Profile Review

Over the last 4 years, no one in the PAC10 now 12, has a worse net game effect than Coach Neuheisel.  -4 games per year in a 12 game season is one of the worst marks in the country for coaches still employed.   Sure, it is easy to point out that UCLA is an elite recruiting school and thus there are very few opportunities to add net positive wins.  However, UCLA has an annual recruiting rank over the last 4 years above Oregon and they are not losing 4+ games per year.

Normally, to turn this problem around, the rule of thumb is our motto – Recruit to win,, not win to recruit.  But, how do you recruit much better than a #15 rank over the last 4 years!  So if recruiting is not the issue then how about the scheduling.  Well, the PAC10 played a fully balanced 5/5 schedule so nothing unusual about that which takes us to the only factor left.  The Coaching Staff.  Sure, there have been key injuries, but there must be a number of problems at the coaching level.  Even with top recruiting, UCLA is one of the worst in the conference in getting kids to the NFL.   And to think this 2011 Bruin team was a top 25 class away from being a team on this page based on required recruiting metrics.

Bruins Recruiting Rank Links:

Most recent year , year over year recruiting improvement and 4 year moving averages of all 120 teams recruiting rankings based on CFBMatrix national composite rankings.

UCLA Bruins – Roster/Depth/Recruits

UCLA Bruins 2011 Schedule Breakdown

For Bruin fans, due to the huge net negative coaching effect, let downs for home and road games are to be expected.   However, in reading the model for the Bruins and the past history of Coach Neuheisel, this is one team that could really be a surprise.

This team should start 2-0.  Period.  Any PAC12 school losing to Houston and San Jose State would see those a bad losses.   The Texas game, at home, is a bit of a question mark, but the model does not consider past results.  Texas has the talent and should win that game.  It is a solid OOC schedule and the model ranks it the #3 SOS in the PAC12 for 2011.

UCLA gets a break by being placed in the PAC12 South, which is by far the weakest of the two divisions.  They don’t have to play Oregon or Washington and tough road games amount to USC and Stanford.  A successful season and improvement is possible if they can avoid poor road losses (i.e. Utah, Oregon State, Arizona).  They play the easiest conference schedule and there is no excuse for a continued decline in wins.  Expect due to poor recruiting (see below).

With such powerful recruiting and such poor results, I don’t see how another sub .500 season results in the retention of the current coaching staff.  The seat must be very warm in Westwood as there are few coaches left in the country at -4 net games per year since 2007.

Links to other Bruins stats, trends, and articles

NFL/Recruiting Rank Ratios    Team Records – Odds Matrix    Returning Starters (All teams)

UCLA Bruins Wins and Recruiting Trend Chart

2009 and 2010 were elite years for the Bruins.  It marked the time when the 4 year moving average for recruiting fell into the BCS title berth range.  That’s right Bruin fans, above the line that all winner and losers for the BCS title over the last 8 years have exceeded.  However, the wins didn’t come and have continued to decline.  The recruiting stayed at an elite level until 2011, when it started crashing to its lowest level in a decade.

This recruiting decline is going to be a negative impact for several years as it moves through the program.  For immediate affect, it indicates above average odds that the Bruins will have 4 or fewer wins in 2011.   That would continue the disasterous and unpredictable fall of the football program.  Coaching has taken them down and it is coaching that can bring them back, slowly, to a conference power.  This chart need to turn NOW starting with 5 or more wins and better recruiting.

Bruin Tweeters to follow besides me (@cfbmatrix)

@BruinNation – Thanks for the article mention tasser10!


One Response to UCLA Bruins

  1. tasser10 says:

    You’re welcome! This is good stuff. I keep checking your site for your final predictions for UCLA…it’s a crucial year! Let me know when you’re done with it.

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